Energy - WTI Crude Oil Reversal

11 Okt 2021

Idea for USOIL:
- I find it difficult to believe in the energy crisis narrative. I trust the currencies more.
- DXY's rise will create a deflationary bust.
- In time series, seasonality dominates correlations. WTI facing headwinds of bearish seasonality .

Speculate a short term top at least and reversal. Going into next year or even earlier, we will see a shortage turn into a glut.

GLHF

21 Okt 2021

Catatan

Here we are at 100D 2Std Dev R:


and even the 100M:


Backwardation makes this tricky, but I think a pullback to 70 or even 40 is due.

21 Okt 2021

Catatan

However, because of the nature of the "Spring" when it was negatively priced, I would not be shocked for 100+ prices after a pullback to 70:

21 Okt 2021

Catatan

Maybe it will be a pullback to 70, monthly wick blowoff top to 100~ then 40

30 Okt 2021

Catatan

I imagine the "Energy Crisis" is largely over:

30 Okt 2021

Catatan

Rising prices are driven by perceived shortages and speculation, rather than fundamental supply and demand.

15 Nov 2021

Catatan

I flip flopped a little bit due to term structure in this idea, but this is the reality of the situation:


max bearish

24 Nov 2021

Catatan

The SPR release is a death sentence for both oil prices and "inflation". Not because it addresses supply, no. Supply was NEVER an issue. Term structure and large oil traders and speculative excess was all that mattered. Now, oil traders can simply short spot from SPR and buy lower priced futures contracts. Price will come down, CPI will be low from now, inflation headfake. That's that.

Goldman and media blaring inflation again, just like with gold, trying to exit on retail.

26 Nov 2021

Trading ditutup: target tercapai

“He sees things before others even begin to think about them.” - on Marc Rich