ES/SPY (Weekend Look (Nov 1 -5)
The ES finished the week strong closing at another ATH on Friday. It has been a breathless rally from pull back low on Oct 1st. The ES hit the completion zone of the bearish harmonic I posted last weekend. Price took a brief two day pause pulling back 44 points after touching the 1.13 fib extension, but recovered quickly pushing above the fib level on Thursday and Friday led by mega caps MSFT and TSLA.
The ES has opened on Sunday night above the 1.13 fib extension and above 4600. This bullish, but price is still in the completion zone of the bearish harmonic. A break above the 1.27 fib extension would negate the bearish pattern. As I mentioned last week the bearish completion zone was a price target not an area to short. The target has been hit and I plan to sit out the first part of the week until I get a better feel on direction. The monthly close was very strong and the overall sentiment of the market is very bullish. It will take a significant negative catalyst to reverse the trend going into the end of the year.
The biggest potential market mover this week will be the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. It is expected that they will keep rates the same, but announce the beginning of tapering. No one has a clue how the market will react and its best not to place any large market bets ( bullish or bearish ) prior to this event. Like the NAS the ES has made and incredible run and feels overbought. On the other hand we are now beginning the most bullish period of the year for stocks. My preferred setup at this point would be for the market to take breather going into the FOMC and then react positively and rally into year end. That's my hope... let see how it plays out.
Notes
Mon... Manufacturing PMI
Wed.. FOMC meeting, Crude inventories, Factory orders, Non Manufacturing PMI
Fri ... Non Farm Payrolls.
Some of the earning I'll be watching...
AMC , UBER, BABA, MRO , PINS, PTON, PFE
The ES has opened on Sunday night above the 1.13 fib extension and above 4600. This bullish, but price is still in the completion zone of the bearish harmonic. A break above the 1.27 fib extension would negate the bearish pattern. As I mentioned last week the bearish completion zone was a price target not an area to short. The target has been hit and I plan to sit out the first part of the week until I get a better feel on direction. The monthly close was very strong and the overall sentiment of the market is very bullish. It will take a significant negative catalyst to reverse the trend going into the end of the year.
The biggest potential market mover this week will be the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. It is expected that they will keep rates the same, but announce the beginning of tapering. No one has a clue how the market will react and its best not to place any large market bets ( bullish or bearish ) prior to this event. Like the NAS the ES has made and incredible run and feels overbought. On the other hand we are now beginning the most bullish period of the year for stocks. My preferred setup at this point would be for the market to take breather going into the FOMC and then react positively and rally into year end. That's my hope... let see how it plays out.
Notes
Mon... Manufacturing PMI
Wed.. FOMC meeting, Crude inventories, Factory orders, Non Manufacturing PMI
Fri ... Non Farm Payrolls.
Some of the earning I'll be watching...
AMC , UBER, BABA, MRO , PINS, PTON, PFE
