ES/SPY Weekend Look (Nov 15-19)

This is the weekend look going into Nov 15-19. It more or less a cut and paste of my analysis of the NAS. The ES pulled back last week for the first time in 4 weeks and then rallied the last few days after bouncing perfectly off the support zone identified in last weekend's post. See ES Weekend Look (Nov8-12). Last week closed leaving the first inside week since the Oct 4th low.

This week the key levels to watch will be price action around the previous week's high and low. The red and green boxes represent potential targets zones if either level is broken. Above price targets would be the fib extensions past the ATH. Below look for a compound correction into the top of the neutral. As always the uptrend is intact until the bottom of the neutral zone is broken to the down side.

Price is still bumping up against ascending trendline resistance, but continues to show strength as the push into year end continues.

Bullish notes.

Stronger than expected earnings
Accommodative Fed
Seasonal Santa Claus Rally
Inflation favours stocks


Bearish notes.

Rising 10year yield.
Build Back Better Bill stalls
Powell not reinstated
Black Swan


Things to watch this week...

Earnings from NVDA,LCID,RIOT,M,BJ,TJX,WMT,HD,TSN,NET,LOW,.
Includes many highly watched names plus retailers that may give some insight into inflation data.
Also a slue of China names BABA,JD,BILI, BIDU.

Tues... Retail Sales & Industrial production
Wed... Housing starts & Crude inventory
Thur...Jobless claims

Komentar:

Broke the last week's high on the second attempt today and gave a decent move to the 1st breakout level at the 1.13 and then fell back down into the range. I see the quick rejection at the 1.13 fib as bearish.