Naufal21

RBA nge-hold, BOC nge-cut, Long AUDCAD?

Pembelian
Naufal21 Diupdate   
FX:AUDCAD   Dollar Australia/Dollar Kanada
Fundamental

AUD (CIBC & MUFG):
- April CPI surprised higher. The annual rate picked up from 3.5% to 3.6% in April – the annual rate has failed to decline since December last year when it dropped 0.9ppt to 3.4%.
- April CPI print of +3.6% y/y is still too high for the RBA to signal a dovish pivot in June.
- In CIBC view, the board will only consider cuts when unemployment (currently 3.9%) nears 4.3-4.5%
- It’s possible that the RBA waits until 2025 before cutting (after the Fed). The RBA is still hawkish, but US data shows “more exceptionalism.
- The May RBA meeting revised quarterly inflation forecasts higher, indicating that inflation in both economies is “stickier” than previously thought amid strength in their services sectors.
- Further rate hikes in Australia is unlikely, but the RBA will continue to signal this possibility to restrain easing of financial conditions.
- The reduced scope for the RBA to cut will help AUD and assuming a soft landing is engineered globally, the Australian dollar is set to advance further.

CAD (DBS & MUFG)
- The Bank of Canada (BOC) kicked off the crucial round of central bank policy decisions in Jun with an expected 25 bps rate cut to 4.75% on 05 Jun.
- Dovish guidance = Governor Macklem shared that “it is reasonable to expect that there will be further cuts in interest rates”.
- The market moved to price in more rate cuts in Canada this year – market-implied policy rate at year-end now stands at 4.20%, compared to 4.35% pre-decision.
- Headline and underlying inflation eased to 2.7% YoY and 2.75% in April, below the BOC’s 3% projection for 1H24 and nearer the 2.5% forecast for 2H24.
- The growth in population in Canada should also ease BoC concerns over wage inflation. While there was a large 90.4k jump in jobs in April, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.1%, up from 5.0% a year ago. Wage growth has slowed from 5.7% in December to 4.8%.

Jika dilihat dari kebijakan moneter, RBA cenderung lebih hawk dibanding BOC. Dengan begitu ada potensi kenaikan lebih tinggi pada kurs AUDCAD. Selain itu, berdasarkan short term valuation model yang mengkalkulasikan short & long term yied, currency strength, dan harga Brent, AUDCAD saat ini sudah bisa dikatakan "undervalue" atau murah (cek gambar). AUDCAD berpeluang terapresiasi menuju level 0.9330.

Teknikal

AUDCAD saat ini berkonsolidasi sehat setelah berhasil menembus resisten dari neckline pola cup & handle (atau inverted head & shoulder). Selama mampu bertahan di atas area 0.9065 (garis hitam putus-putus), terbuka ruang kenaikan yang lebih tinggi menuju level 0.937 dengan target minor di level 0.9183.

Harga yang bergerak di atas rangkaian MA-nya menunjukkan pair ini berada dalam fase uptrend kuat. Bisa pertimbangkan untuk membuka posisi long jika MACD mengalami golden cross dan kembali mengarah ke atas.

Trading: Long
OP: 0.9065
SL: 0.895
TP: 0.937
Komentar:
Area target 1 di level 0.9183 berhasil dicapai
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