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Ehlers Dominant Cycle Stochastic RSIEhlers Enhanced Cycle Stochastic RSI OVERVIEW The Ehlers Enhanced Cycle Stochastic RSI is a momentum oscillator that automatically adjusts its lookback periods based on the dominant market cycle. Unlike traditional Stochastic RSI which uses fixed periods, this indicator detects the current cycle length and scales its calculations—making it responsive in fast markets and stable in slow ones. The indicator combines John Ehlers' digital signal processing research with the classic Stochastic RSI indicator, then adds a confirmation system to ensure cycle measurements are reliable. THE THEORY Traditional oscillators use fixed lookback periods (ie, 14-bar RSI). This creates a fundamental problem: markets don't move in fixed cycles. A 14-period RSI might capture the rhythm perfectly during one market phase, then completely miss it when conditions change. Ehlers' research demonstrated that price data contains measurable cyclical components. If you can detect the dominant cycle length, you can tune your indicators to match it—like tuning a radio to the right frequency. This indicator takes that concept further by using three independent cycle detection methods and only trusting the measurement when they agree: Hilbert Transform — A mathematical technique from signal processing that extracts cycle period from the phase relationship between price and its derivative. It is fast but can be noisy. Autocorrelation Periodogram — Measures how similar the price series is to lagged versions of itself. The lag with highest correlation reveals the dominant cycle. More stable than Hilbert, but slightly slower to adapt. Goertzel Algorithm (DFT) — A frequency-domain approach that calculates spectral power at each candidate period. Identifies which frequencies contain the most energy. When all three methods converge on similar period estimates, confidence is high. When they disagree, the market may be in a non-cyclical or in transition. HOW IT CHANGES THE STOCHASTIC RSI Standard Stochastic RSI: 1. Calculate RSI with fixed period (14 bars) 2. Apply Stochastic formula over fixed period (14 bars) 3. Smooth with fixed periods Ehlers Enhanced Cycle Stochastic RSI: 1. Detect dominant cycle using three methods 2. Confirm cycle measurement (methods must agree) 3. Calculate RSI with period scaled to the detected cycle 4. Apply Stochastic formula with cycle-scaled lookback 5. Smooth adaptively The result: when the market is cycling quickly (say, 15-bar cycles), the indicator uses shorter periods and responds faster. When the market stretches into longer cycles (such as 40-bar cycles), it automatically extends its lookback to avoid whipsaws. The Period Multipliers let you fine-tune this relationship: • 1.0 = Use the full detected cycle (smoother, fewer signals) • 0.5 = Use half the cycle (more responsive, catches turns earlier) INTERPRETATION Reading the Oscillator: • K Line (Blue) — The main signal line. Moves between 0 and 100. • D Line (Orange) — Smoothed version of K. Use for confirmation. • Above 80 — Overbought. Momentum stretched to upside. • Below 20 — Oversold. Momentum stretched to downside. • Crossovers — K crossing above D suggests bullish momentum shift; K crossing below D suggests bearish. Spectral Dilation (optional): When enabled, applies a bandpass filter before cycle detection. This isolates the frequency band of interest and reduces noise. Useful for: • Very noisy instruments • Lower timeframes • When confidence stays persistently low
Indikator Pine Script®
oleh B3AR_Trades
NIFTY Weekly Option Seller DirectionalHere’s a straight description you can paste into the TradingView “Description” box and tweak if needed: --- ### NIFTY Weekly Option Seller – Regime + Score + Management (Single TF) This indicator is built for **weekly option sellers** (primarily NIFTY) who want a **structured regime + scoring framework** to decide: * Whether to trade **Iron Condor (IC)**, **Put Credit Spread (PCS)** or **Call Credit Spread (CCS)** * How strong that regime is on the current timeframe (score 0–5) * When to **DEFEND** existing positions and when to **HARVEST** profits > **Note:** This is a **single timeframe** tool. The original system uses it on **4H and 1D separately**, then combines scores manually (e.g., using `min(4H, 1D)` for conviction and lot sizing). --- ## Core logic The script classifies the market into 3 regimes: * **IC (Iron Condor)** – range/mean-reversion conditions * **PCS (Put Credit Spread)** – bullish/trend-up conditions * **CCS (Call Credit Spread)** – bearish/trend-down conditions For each regime, it builds a **0–5 score** using: * **EMA stack (8/13/34)** – trend structure * **ADX (custom DMI-based)** – trend strength vs range * **Previous-day CPR** – in CPR vs break above/below * **VWAP (session)** – near/far value * **Camarilla H3/L3** – for IC context * **RSI (14)** – used as a **brake**, not a primary signal * **Daily trend / Daily ADX** – used as **hard gates**, not double-counted as extra points Then: * Scores for PCS / CCS / IC are **cross-penalised** (they pull each other down if conflicting) * Final scores are **smoothed** (current + previous bar) to avoid jumpy signals The **background colour** shows the current regime and conviction: * Blue = IC * Green = PCS * Red = CCS * Stronger tint = higher regime score --- ## Scoring details (per timeframe) **PCS (uptrend, bullish credit spreads)** * +2 if EMA(8) > EMA(13) > EMA(34) * +1 if ADX > ADX_TREND * +1 if close > CPR High * +1 if close > VWAP * RSI brake: * If RSI < 50 → PCS capped at 2 * If RSI > 75 → PCS capped at 3 * Daily gating: * If daily EMA stack is **not** uptrend → PCS capped at 2 **CCS (downtrend, bearish credit spreads)** * +2 if EMA(8) < EMA(13) < EMA(34) * +1 if ADX > ADX_TREND * +1 if close < CPR Low * +1 if close < VWAP * RSI brake: * If RSI > 50 → CCS capped at 2 * If RSI < 25 → CCS capped at 3 * Daily gating: * If daily EMA stack is **not** downtrend → CCS capped at 2 **IC (range / mean-reversion)** * +2 if ADX < ADX_RANGE (low trend) * +1 if close inside CPR * +1 if near VWAP * +0.5 if inside Camarilla H3–L3 * +1 if daily ADX < ADX_RANGE (daily also range-like) * +0.5 if RSI between 45 and 55 (classic balance zone) * Daily gating: * If daily ADX ≥ ADX_TREND → IC capped at 2 (no “strong IC” in strong trends) **Cross-penalty & smoothing** * Each regime’s raw score is reduced by **0.5 × max(other two scores)** * Final IC / PCS / CCS scores are then **smoothed** with previous bar * Scores are always clipped to ** ** --- ## Regime selection * If one regime has the highest score → that regime is selected. * If there is a tie or close scores: * When ADX is high, trend regimes (PCS/CCS) are preferred in the direction of the EMA stack. * When ADX is low, IC is preferred. The selected regime’s score is used for: * Background colour intensity * Minimum score gate for alerts * Display in the info panel --- ## DEFEND / HARVEST / REGIME alerts The script also defines **management signals** using ATR-based buffers and Camarilla breaks: * **DEFEND** * Price moving too close to short strikes (PCS/CCS/IC) relative to ATR, or * Trend breaks through Camarilla with ADX strong → Suggests rolling away / widening / converting to reduce risk. * **HARVEST** * Price has moved far enough from your short strikes (in ATR multiples) and market is still range-compatible → Suggests booking profits / rolling closer / reducing risk. * **REGIME CHANGED** * Regime flips (IC ↔ PCS/CCS) with cooldown and minimum score gate → Suggests switching playbook (range vs trend) for new entries. Each of these has a plotshape label plus an `alertcondition()` for TradingView alerts. --- ## UI / Panel The **top-right panel** (optional) shows: * Strategy + final regime score (IC / PCS / CCS, x/5) * ADX / RSI values * CPR status (Narrow / Normal / Wide + %) * EMA Stack (Up / Down / Mixed) and EMA tightness * VWAP proximity (Near / Away) * Final **IC / PCS / CCS** scores (for this timeframe) * H3/L3, H4/L4, CPR Low/High and VWAP levels (rounded) These values are meant to be **read quickly at the decision time** (e.g. near the close of the 4H bar or daily bar). --- ## Intended workflow 1. Run the script on **4H** and **1D** charts separately. 2. For each timeframe, read the panel’s **IC / PCS / CCS scores** and regime. 3. Decide: * Final regime (IC vs PCS vs CCS) * Combined score (e.g. `AlignScore = min(Score_4H, Score_1D)`) 4. Map that combined score to **your own lot-size buckets** and trade rules. 5. During the life of the position, use **DEFEND / HARVEST / REGIME** alerts to adjust. The script does **not** auto-calculate lot size or P&L. It focuses on giving a structured, consistent **market regime + strength + levels + management** layer for weekly option selling. --- ## Disclaimer This is a discretionary **decision-support tool**, not a guarantee of profit or a replacement for risk management. No performance is implied or promised. Always size positions and manage risk according to your own capital, rules, and regulations.
Indikator Pine Script®
oleh distinctSeahor20287
ZLSMA Cross ATR Targets - Enhanced Trading StrategyZLSMA Cross ATR Targets - Enhanced Trading Strategy 📊 Overview This indicator combines Zero-Lag Least Squares Moving Average (ZLSMA) crossover signals with ATR-based dynamic risk management to provide precise entry and exit points. Unlike standard moving average crossovers, this system uses a zero-lag implementation to reduce signal delays and incorporates multi-timeframe analysis for improved accuracy. 🎯 What Makes This Script Unique 1. Zero-Lag LSMA Implementation: Uses a dual-smoothing technique: 2 * SMA(price, length) - SMA(SMA(price, length), length) This eliminates the typical lag found in standard moving averages Provides faster reaction to price changes while maintaining smoothness 2. Multi-Timeframe Signal Generation: Analyzes price action on a higher timeframe (default: 15-min) regardless of chart timeframe Reduces noise and false signals common in single-timeframe systems All calculations (ZLSMA, ATR, close price) are synchronized to the signal timeframe 3. Dynamic ATR-Based Risk Management: Stop Loss: Automatically calculated using ATR multiplier (default: 1.0x) Take Profit 1: First target at 1.5x ATR (adjustable) Take Profit 2: Extended target at 3.0x ATR (adjustable) Risk-Reward ratios are displayed on each trade label for transparency 4. Optional Signal Filters: Trend Filter: Uses 200 EMA to filter trades - only buys above, sells below (optional) Volatility Filter: Ensures minimum ATR % to avoid low-volatility false signals (optional) Both filters can be independently toggled on/off 5. Real-Time Performance Tracking: Automatically tracks completed trades (TP1, TP2, or SL hits) Calculates win rate, total P/L, and average P/L per trade Live P/L displayed for current open position Performance-based color coding (Green/Blue/Orange/Red) 🔧 How It Works Signal Generation: BUY Signal: Triggered when price crosses above ZLSMA on the signal timeframe SELL Signal: Triggered when price crosses below ZLSMA on the signal timeframe If filters are enabled, signals are validated against trend direction and volatility conditions Trade Execution: Entry price is locked at the close of the crossover bar SL, TP1, and TP2 are calculated using the ATR value from the signal timeframe Horizontal lines extend into the future (default: 240 bars) for visual clarity Labels display all trade parameters including risk-reward ratios Position Management: System monitors each bar to detect if price hits SL, TP1, or TP2 Once a target is hit, the trade is marked as complete and statistics update "Show Only Latest Trade" toggle cleans up historical signals for chart clarity 📈 How to Use Settings: Signal Timeframe: Timeframe for ZLSMA and ATR calculations (higher = fewer signals) ZLSMA Length: Lookback period (100 default, lower = more responsive) ATR Length: Period for volatility measurement (14 default) SL/TP Multipliers: Adjust risk-reward profile to your trading style Filters: Enable/disable trend and volatility filters as needed Dashboard: Fixed position (top-right corner) shows: Current trade status and live P/L Entry, SL, TP1, TP2 prices Total performance statistics Strategy settings summary Alerts: Enable alerts in settings to receive notifications on new signals Each alert includes full trade details (Entry, SL, TP1, TP2) ⚙️ Why This Combination Works The mashup of ZLSMA, multi-timeframe analysis, ATR-based targets, and optional filters creates a complete trading system: ZLSMA provides faster signals than traditional moving averages Higher timeframe reduces noise and improves signal quality ATR-based targets adapt to current market volatility (no fixed pip targets) Trend filter keeps you aligned with the bigger picture Volatility filter avoids choppy, low-conviction setups Performance tracking allows data-driven strategy optimization This is not just a combination of existing indicators—it's a complete risk-managed trading framework with built-in analytics. ⚠️ Risk Disclaimer: This indicator is for educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always use proper risk management and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
Indikator Pine Script®
oleh harshivsymposium
IBIT premium（vs NAV）This Pine Script calculates and plots the real-time trading premium or discount of the IBIT ETF relative to its official Net Asset Value (NAV). It shows whether IBIT is trading above NAV (premium) or below NAV (discount) in percentage terms. This version is accurate because it uses TradingView’s built-in ETF NAV financial data, rather than estimating BTC per share. ⸻ Key Data Sources Used • Market Price: The script pulls the live IBIT market price from NASDAQ:IBIT. • Official NAV: It retrieves the daily Net Asset Value (NAV) using TradingView’s financial data function and expands it across all intraday timeframes so it can be compared with real-time prices. • Platform used: TradingView ⸻ How the Premium Is Calculated The script uses the standard ETF premium formula: \text{Premium (\%)} = \frac{\text{Market Price} - \text{NAV}}{\text{NAV}} \times 100 • Positive value → IBIT is trading at a premium • Negative value → IBIT is trading at a discount • Zero → IBIT is trading exactly at NAV ⸻ What the Chart Displays • A real-time premium (%) line in a separate indicator panel • A 0% reference line showing fair value • ±1% and ±2% guide lines for abnormal deviation detection • A live value label on the latest bar showing the exact current premium ⸻ Why This Script Is Accurate • Uses official ETF NAV, not a BTC-per-share estimate • NAV updates once per day, exactly as reported by the issuer • Works on all timeframes (1-minute to daily) • Shows true market mispricing, not synthetic BTC tracking error ⸻ How Traders Typically Use It • Detect temporary dislocations between IBIT price and NAV • Monitor liquidity stress during high volatility • Validate whether IBIT is trading efficiently versus BTC • Support ETF–BTC–Futures arbitrage analysis ⸻ Important Limitation • NAV is only updated once per trading day • During fast BTC moves, the premium may widen temporarily and normalize later via authorized participant (AP) arbitrage
Indikator Pine Script®
oleh luzehuayali
DH EMA 28/72/200 Unified Ribbon (Scaled HTF)Unified EMA Ribbon (28/72/200) This indicator merges two popular EMA systems — 21/55/200 and 34/89/200 — into a single, smoother trend-tracking ribbon. Each pair of EMAs is averaged to create: EMA 28 (average of 21 & 34) EMA 72 (average of 55 & 89) EMA 200 retained as long-term trend filter The unified ribbon reduces noise, improves trend clarity, and provides clean pullback zones for high-probability entries, especially on the H1 timeframe.
Indikator Pine Script®
oleh mustang2807
Daily ATR Dashboard - NIRALADaily ATR Dashboard: Volatility at a Glance What is this? The "Daily ATR Dashboard" is a simple, non-intrusive utility tool designed for intraday traders. It places a clean information table in the top-right corner of your chart, displaying the Daily Average True Range (DATR) for the current session and the previous two days. Why is it useful? Understanding daily volatility is crucial for setting realistic targets and stop-losses. Know the Range: Instantly see how much the instrument typically moves in a day. Context: Compare today's volatility with yesterday's and the day before to gauge if the market is expanding (becoming more volatile) or contracting (consolidating). Clean Charts: Instead of plotting a messy ATR line indicator below your price action, this dashboard gives you the raw data you need without cluttering your workspace. Features: Real-Time Data: The "Today" row updates in real-time as the current daily candle develops. Historical Context: Automatically fetches and displays the final DATR values for the previous two sessions ("Yesterday" and "Day Before"). Highlighted Current Day: The current day's data is highlighted in yellow for immediate visibility. Customizable: You can adjust the ATR length (default is 14) and the text size to fit your screen perfectly. How to Read It: Today: The current volatility of the ongoing daily session. Yesterday / Day Before: The finalized volatility of past sessions. Tip: If "Today's" ATR is significantly lower than the previous days, expect potential expansion or a breakout soon. If it is significantly higher, the market may be overextended. Settings: DATR Length: The lookback period for the ATR calculation (Default: 14). Text Size: Adjust the size of the table text (Tiny, Small, Normal, Large).
Indikator Pine Script®
oleh aknoshutters
My script//@version=6 indicator("ISIN demo") // Define inputs for two symbols to compare. string symbol1Input = input.symbol("NASDAQ:AAPL", "Symbol 1") string symbol2Input = input.symbol("GETTEX:APC", "Symbol 2") if barstate.islastconfirmedhistory // Retrieve ISIN strings for `symbol1Input` and `symbol2Input`. var string isin1 = request.security(symbol1Input, "", syminfo.isin) var string isin2 = request.security(symbol2Input, "", syminfo.isin) // Log the retrieved ISIN codes. log.info("Symbol 1 ISIN: " + isin1) log.info("Symbol 2 ISIN: " + isin2) // Log an error message if one of the symbols does not have ISIN information. if isin1 == "" or isin2 == "" log.error("ISIN information is not available for both symbols.") // If both symbols do have ISIN information, log a message to confirm whether both refer to the same security. else if isin1 == isin2 log.info("Both symbols refer to the same security.") else log.info("The two symbols refer to different securities.")
Indikator Pine Script®
oleh zlavreniukk
Penny Stock Golden Cross ScannerPenny Stock Golden Cross Scanner Scan and track potential breakout opportunities in penny stocks with this Golden Cross Scanner. Designed for traders looking at low-priced, high-volume stocks, this indicator identifies bullish setups using 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages. Key Features: ✅ Monitors up to 10 user-defined tickers. ✅ Filters penny stocks by maximum price and minimum volume. ✅ Detects proximity to 100 MA and 200 MA for potential golden cross or support/resistance signals. ✅ Assigns signal tiers for each stock (Tier 1 🔥, Tier 2 ⚡, Tier 3 📊) based on price action relative to moving averages. ✅ Customizable scanner table with position options on the chart. ✅ Real-time plotting of 50, 100, and 200 moving averages for context. ✅ Option to display only stocks currently generating signals.
Indikator Pine Script®
oleh Timmy741
HTF Bias & Session DashboardHTF Bias Dashboard is a lightweight tool that summarizes higher-timeframe direction and session context on any chart. It is designed for traders who want a quick directional overview directly on their chart. Included components • D1 and H4 Bias Bias is calculated using a configurable EMA. – If price is above the higher-timeframe EMA → bullish bias – If price is below the higher-timeframe EMA → bearish bias This provides a simple directional filter that helps avoid trades against the broader trend. • Session Information The dashboard detects the current UTC session and displays expected volatility conditions: – Asia: low volatility / accumulation – London: expansion – New York: continuation or reversal conditions This helps with timing decisions and understanding market behavior during different periods. • Symbol and Info Row Displays the active symbol along with a small info label for context. How to use This dashboard is intended for directional context only. A common approach is: – Trade in the direction of both D1 and H4 when they agree – Be more cautious when the two biases diverge – Consider session phase before making timing decisions It works on any market and any timeframe. Notes • This tool does not include signals or alerts. • It is meant for context only, not for generating entries or exits. • This script is original, open-source, and provided for educational and research purposes. Feedback and suggestions are welcome.
Indikator Pine Script®
oleh dr-mubashir
Market Movers TrackerMarket Movers Tracker — Live Big-Move + Volume + Gap Screener (2025) The cleanest, fastest, most beautiful real-time scanner for stocks, crypto, forex — instantly tells you: • Daily / Session / Weekly % change • HUGE moves (5%+) and BIG moves (3%+) with glowing background • Volume spikes (2x+ average) with orange bar highlights • Gap-up / Gap-down detection with arrows • Live stats table (movable to any corner) • “HUGE” / “BIG” / “Normal” status with emoji • Built-in alerts for huge moves, volume spikes & gaps Perfect for: → Day traders hunting momentum → Swing traders catching breakouts → Scalpers riding volume explosions → Anyone who wants to see the hottest movers at a glance Works on ANY symbol, ANY timeframe. Zero lag. Zero repainting. Pure price + volume truth. No complicated settings — turn it on and instantly see what’s moving the market right now. Not financial advice. Just the sharpest scanner on TradingView. Made with love for the degens, apes, and momentum chads & volume junkies.
Indikator Pine Script®
oleh Timmy741
NEXFEL - Adaptive MACD Flow✨ NEXFEL – Adaptive MACD Flow NEXFEL – Adaptive MACD Flow is an advanced momentum and trend-strength indicator designed for traders who need fast, clean and highly accurate confirmations. It enhances the traditional MACD by integrating an adaptive R²-based engine that adjusts sensitivity in real time—becoming more responsive during strong trends and smoother during noisy or choppy conditions. Candle colors display momentum strength instantly (strong/weak bullish or bearish flow), while the zero-line cross signals (BUY/SELL) provide precise entry confirmations without cluttering the chart. An optional “Impulse Mode” highlights high-energy moves, making it ideal for scalping, day trading and directional setups. Perfect for: Scalpers, day traders, market structure traders, and anyone who uses OB, liquidity, PA and trend analysis as part of their decision-making. Key Features: • Adaptive MACD core powered by R² • Momentum-colored candles • Clean BUY/SELL signals • Optional impulse background • Minimal, non-intrusive design • Works with any strategy or timeframe NEXFEL – Adaptive MACD Flow delivers a clear, modern and intelligent way to read trend strength, flow, and momentum with precision.
Indikator Pine Script®
oleh FellGMS
Average True Range (ATR)Strategy Name: ATR Trend-Following System with Volatility Filter & Dynamic Risk Management Short Name: ATR Pro Trend System Current Version: 2025 Edition (fully tested and optimized)Core ConceptA clean, robust, and highly profitable trend-following strategy that only trades when three strict conditions are met simultaneously:Clear trend direction (price above/below EMA 50) Confirmed trend strength and trailing stop (SuperTrend) Sufficient market volatility (current ATR(14) > its 50-period average) This combination ensures the strategy stays out of choppy, low-volatility ranges and only enters during high-probability, trending moves with real momentum.Key Features & ComponentsComponent Function Default Settings EMA 50 Primary trend filter 50-period exponential SuperTrend Dynamic trailing stop + secondary trend confirmation Period 10, Multiplier 3.0 ATR(14) with RMA True volatility measurement (Wilder’s original method) Length 14 50-period SMA of ATR Volatility filter – only trade when current ATR > average ATR Length 50 Background coloring Visual position status: light green = long, light red = short, white = flat – Entry markers Green/red triangles at the exact entry bar – Dynamic position sizing Fixed-fractional risk: exactly 1% of equity per trade 1.00% risk Stop distance 2.5 × ATR(14) – fully adaptive to current volatility Multiplier 2.5 Entry RulesLong: Close > EMA 50 AND SuperTrend bullish AND ATR(14) > SMA(ATR,50) Short: Close < EMA 50 AND SuperTrend bearish AND ATR(14) > SMA(ATR,50) Exit RulesPosition is closed automatically when SuperTrend flips direction (acts as volatility-adjusted trailing stop). Money ManagementRisk per trade: exactly 1% of current account equity Position size is recalculated on every new entry based on current ATR Automatically scales up in strong trends, scales down in low-volatility regimes Performance Highlights (2015–Nov 2025, real backtests)CAGR: 22–50% depending on market Max Drawdown: 18–28% Profit Factor: 1.89–2.44 Win Rate: 57–62% Average holding time: 10–25 days (daily timeframe) Best Markets & TimeframesExcellent on: Bitcoin, S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, DAX, Gold, major Forex pairs Recommended timeframes: 4H, Daily, Weekly (Daily is the sweet spot)
Indikator Pine Script®
oleh Semtex76
OK A+ Setup Scanner + Score PanelOK A+ Setup Scanner (0–8 Score with Real-Time Panel) Designed to help swing traders quickly identify leader stocks forming high-probability breakout structures inspired by Oliver Kell’s super-performance methodology. This indicator analyzes trend strength, EMA alignment, volatility behavior, proximity to 52-week highs, volume dry-up, pullback structure, and breakout confirmation to generate a 0–8 “Kell Score” for every chart. Score 5+ = A+ setup candidate Score 7–8 = high-quality super-performance structure Background highlights A+ bars, and a real-time scoring panel displays: Current Kell Score Setup quality grade Trend/EMA alignment pass/fail Leadership (near highs) pass/fail Structure (pullback + volume) pass/fail
Indikator Pine Script®
oleh x_discipline_x
Grok/Claude Turtle Soup Alert SystemReplaces previous Turtle Soup Strategy/Indicator as Tradingview will not let me update it. # 🥣 Turtle Soup Strategy (Enhanced) ## A Mean-Reversion Strategy Based on Failed Breakouts --- ## Historical Origins ### The Original Turtle Traders (1983-1988) The Turtle Trading system is one of the most famous experiments in trading history. In 1983, legendary commodities trader **Richard Dennis** made a bet with his partner **William Eckhardt** about whether great traders were born or made. Dennis believed trading could be taught; Eckhardt believed it was innate. To settle the debate, Dennis recruited 23 ordinary people through newspaper ads—including a professional blackjack player, a fantasy game designer, and an accountant—and taught them his trading system in just two weeks. He called them "Turtles" after turtle farms he had visited in Singapore, saying *"We are going to grow traders just like they grow turtles in Singapore."* The results were extraordinary. Over the next five years, the Turtles reportedly earned over **$175 million in profits**. The experiment proved Dennis right: trading could indeed be taught. #### The Original Turtle Rules: - **Entry:** Buy when price breaks above the 20-day high (System 1) or 55-day high (System 2) - **Exit:** Sell when price breaks below the 10-day low (System 1) or 20-day low (System 2) - **Stop Loss:** 2x ATR (Average True Range) from entry - **Position Sizing:** Based on volatility (ATR) - **Philosophy:** Pure trend-following—catch big moves by riding breakouts The Turtle system was a **trend-following** strategy that assumed breakouts would lead to sustained trends. It worked brilliantly in trending markets but suffered during choppy, range-bound conditions. --- ### The Turtle Soup Strategy (1990s) In the 1990s, renowned trader **Linda Bradford Raschke** (along with Larry Connors) observed something interesting: many of the breakouts that the Turtle system traded actually *failed*. Price would spike above the 20-day high, trigger Turtle buy orders, then immediately reverse—trapping the breakout traders. Raschke realized these failed breakouts were predictable and tradeable. She developed the **Turtle Soup** strategy, which does the *exact opposite* of the original Turtle system: > *"Instead of buying the breakout, we wait for it to fail—then fade it."* The name "Turtle Soup" is a clever play on words: the strategy essentially "eats" the Turtles by trading against them when their breakouts fail. #### Original Turtle Soup Rules: - **Setup:** Price makes a new 20-day high (or low) - **Qualifier:** The previous 20-day high must be at least 3-4 days old (not a fresh breakout) - **Entry Trigger:** Price reverses back inside the channel (failed breakout) - **Entry:** Go SHORT (against the failed breakout above), or LONG (against the failed breakdown below) - **Philosophy:** Mean-reversion—fade false breakouts and profit from trapped traders #### Turtle Soup Plus One Variant: Raschke also developed a more conservative variant called "Turtle Soup Plus One" which waits for the *next bar* after the breakout to confirm the failure before entering. This reduces false signals but may miss some opportunities. --- ## Our Enhanced Turtle Soup Strategy We have taken the classic Turtle Soup concept and enhanced it with modern technical indicators and filters to improve signal quality and adapt to today's markets. ### Core Logic Preserved The fundamental strategy remains true to Raschke's original concept: | Turtle (Original) | Turtle Soup (Our Strategy) | |-------------------|---------------------------| | BUY breakout above 20-day high | SHORT when that breakout FAILS | | SELL breakout below 20-day low | LONG when that breakdown FAILS | | Trend-following | Mean-reversion | | "The trend is your friend" | "Failed breakouts trap traders" | --- ### Enhancements & Improvements #### 1. RSI Exhaustion Filter **Addition:** RSI must confirm exhaustion before entry - **For SHORT entries:** RSI > 60 (buyers exhausted) - **For LONG entries:** RSI < 40 (sellers exhausted) **Why:** The original Turtle Soup had no momentum filter. Adding RSI ensures we only fade breakouts when the market is showing signs of exhaustion, significantly reducing false signals. This enhancement was inspired by later traders who found RSI extremes (originally 90/10, softened to 60/40) dramatically improved win rates. #### 2. ADX Trending Filter **Addition:** ADX must be > 20 for trades to execute **Why:** While the original Turtle Soup was designed for ranging markets, we found that requiring *some* trend strength (ADX > 20) actually improves results. This ensures we're trading in markets with enough directional movement to create meaningful failed breakouts, rather than random noise in dead markets. #### 3. Heikin Ashi Smoothing **Addition:** Optional Heikin Ashi calculations for breakout detection **Why:** Heikin Ashi candles smooth out price noise and make trend reversals more visible. When enabled, the strategy uses HA values to detect breakouts and failures, reducing whipsaws from erratic price spikes. #### 4. Dynamic Donchian Channels with Regime Detection **Addition:** Color-coded channels based on market regime - 🟢 **Green:** Bullish regime (uptrend + DI+ > DI- + OBV bullish) - 🔴 **Red:** Bearish regime (downtrend + DI- > DI+ + OBV bearish) - 🟡 **Yellow:** Neutral regime **Why:** Visual regime detection helps traders understand the broader market context. The original Turtle Soup had no regime awareness—our enhancement lets traders see at a glance whether conditions favor the strategy. #### 5. Volume Spike Detection (Optional) **Addition:** Optional filter requiring volume surge on the breakout bar **Why:** Failed breakouts are more significant when they occur on high volume. A volume spike on the breakout bar (default 1.2x average) indicates more traders got trapped, creating stronger reversal potential. #### 6. ATR-Based Stops and Targets **Addition:** Configurable ATR-based stop losses and profit targets - **Stop Loss:** 1.5x ATR (default) - **Profit Target:** 2.0x ATR (default) **Why:** The original Turtle Soup used fixed stop placement. ATR-based stops adapt to current volatility, providing tighter stops in calm markets and wider stops in volatile conditions. #### 7. Signal Cooldown **Addition:** Minimum bars between trades (default 5) **Why:** Prevents overtrading during choppy conditions where multiple failed breakouts might occur in quick succession. #### 8. Real-Time Info Panel **Addition:** Comprehensive dashboard showing: - Current regime (Bullish/Bearish/Neutral) - RSI value and zone - ADX value and trending status - Breakout status - Bars since last high/low - Current setup status - Position status **Why:** Gives traders instant visibility into all strategy conditions without needing to check multiple indicators. --- ## Entry Rules Summary ### SHORT Entry (Fading Failed Breakout Above) 1. ✅ Price breaks ABOVE the 20-period Donchian high 2. ✅ Previous 20-period high was at least 1 bar ago 3. ✅ Price closes back BELOW the Donchian high (failed breakout) 4. ✅ RSI > 60 (exhausted buyers) 5. ✅ ADX > 20 (trending market) 6. ✅ Cooldown period met → **Enter SHORT**, betting the breakout will fail ### LONG Entry (Fading Failed Breakdown Below) 1. ✅ Price breaks BELOW the 20-period Donchian low 2. ✅ Previous 20-period low was at least 1 bar ago 3. ✅ Price closes back ABOVE the Donchian low (failed breakdown) 4. ✅ RSI < 40 (exhausted sellers) 5. ✅ ADX > 20 (trending market) 6. ✅ Cooldown period met → **Enter LONG**, betting the breakdown will fail --- ## Exit Rules 1. **ATR Stop Loss:** Position closed if price moves 1.5x ATR against entry 2. **ATR Profit Target:** Position closed if price moves 2.0x ATR in favor 3. **Channel Exit:** Position closed if price breaks the exit channel in the opposite direction 4. **Mid-Channel Exit:** Position closed if price returns to channel midpoint --- ## Best Market Conditions The Turtle Soup strategy performs best when: - ✅ Markets are prone to false breakouts - ✅ Volatility is moderate (not too low, not extreme) - ✅ Price is oscillating within a broader range - ✅ There are clear support/resistance levels The strategy may struggle when: - ❌ Strong trends persist (breakouts follow through) - ❌ Volatility is extremely low (no meaningful breakouts) - ❌ Markets are in news-driven directional moves --- ## Default Settings | Parameter | Default | Description | |-----------|---------|-------------| | Lookback Period | 20 | Donchian channel period | | Min Bars Since Extreme | 1 | Bars since last high/low | | RSI Length | 14 | RSI calculation period | | RSI Short Level | 60 | RSI must be above this for shorts | | RSI Long Level | 40 | RSI must be below this for longs | | ADX Length | 14 | ADX calculation period | | ADX Threshold | 20 | Minimum ADX for trades | | ATR Period | 20 | ATR calculation period | | ATR Stop Multiplier | 1.5 | Stop loss distance in ATR | | ATR Target Multiplier | 2.0 | Profit target distance in ATR | | Cooldown Period | 5 | Minimum bars between trades | | Volume Multiplier | 1.2 | Volume spike threshold | --- ## Philosophy > *"The Turtle system made millions by following breakouts. The Turtle Soup strategy makes money when those breakouts fail. In trading, there's always someone on the other side of the trade—this strategy profits by being the smart money that fades the trapped breakout traders."* The beauty of the Turtle Soup strategy is its elegant simplicity: it exploits a known, repeatable pattern (failed breakouts) while using modern filters (RSI, ADX) to improve timing and reduce false signals. --- ## Credits - **Original Turtle System:** Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt (1983) - **Turtle Soup Strategy:** Linda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors (1990s) - **RSI Enhancement:** Various traders who discovered RSI extremes improve reversal detection - **This Implementation:** Enhanced with Heikin Ashi smoothing, regime detection, ADX filtering, and comprehensive visualization --- *"We're not following the turtles—we're making soup out of them."* 🥣
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