Bitcoin Price Based On ElectricityThis script Calculates the price of Bitcoin solely on the hashrate and the cost of electricity.
The calculation is quite conservative considering its based on the average cost of electricity globally and we are assuming that everyone is running the latest mining hardware, which is the most efficient and cost effective.
Under both of these assumptions the calculation for bitcoins price is almost identical to the price we are seeing now.
If we change the reward rate to 3.125 (Aprils reward amount) then the price of one bitcoin per cost of work will be around 100k.
I am sure I am missing some important numbers in this calculation, fees, start up costs etc. However, it is very interesting to see that the price of Bitcoin can be calculated almost perfectly based on the hashrate and cost of electricity.
PROOF OF WORK
Analisis Fundamental
Ohlson O-Score IndicatorThe Ohlson O-Score is a financial metric developed by Olof Ohlson to predict the probability of a company experiencing financial distress. It is widely used by investors and analysts as a key tool for financial analysis.
Inputs:
Period: Select the financial period for analysis, either "FY" (Fiscal Year) or "FQ" (Fiscal Quarter).
Country: Specify the country for Gross Net Product data. This helps in tailoring the analysis to specific economic conditions.
Gross Net Product : Define the number of years back for the index to be set at 100. This parameter provides a historical context for the analysis.
Table Display : Customize the display of various tables to suit your preference and analytical needs.
Key Features:
Predictive Power : The Ohlson O-Score is renowned for its predictive power in assessing the financial health of a company. It incorporates multiple financial ratios and indicators to provide a comprehensive view.
Financial Distress Prediction : Use the O-Score to gauge the likelihood of a company facing financial distress in the future. It's a valuable tool for risk assessment.
Country-Specific Analysis : Tailor the analysis to the economic conditions of a specific country, ensuring a more accurate evaluation of financial health.
Historical Context : Set the Gross Net Product index at a specific historical point, allowing for a deeper understanding of how a company's financial health has evolved over time.
How to Use:
Select Period : Choose either Fiscal Year or Fiscal Quarter based on your preference.
Specify Country : Input the country for country-specific Gross Net Product data.
Set Historical Context : Determine the number of years back for the index to be set at 100, providing historical context to your analysis.
Custom Table Display : Personalize the display of various tables to focus on the metrics that matter most to you.
Calculation and component description
Here is the description of O-score components as found in orginal Ohlson publication :
1. SIZE = log(total assets/GNP price-level index). The index assumes a base value of 100 for 1968. Total assets are as reported in dollars. The index year is as of the year prior to the year of the balance sheet date. The procedure assures a real-time implementation of the model. The log transform has an important implication. Suppose two firms, A and B, have a balance sheet date in the same year, then the sign of PA - Pe is independent of the price-level index. (This will not follow unless the log transform is applied.) The latter is, of course, a desirable property.
2. TLTA = Total liabilities divided by total assets.
3. WCTA = Working capital divided by total assets.
4. CLCA = Current liabilities divided by current assets.
5. OENEG = One if total liabilities exceeds total assets, zero otherwise.
6. NITA = Net income divided by total assets.
7. FUTL = Funds provided by operations divided by total liabilities
8. INTWO = One if net income was negative for the last two years, zero otherwise.
9. CHIN = (NI, - NI,-1)/(| NIL + (NI-|), where NI, is net income for the most recent period. The denominator acts as a level indicator. The variable is thus intended to measure change in net income. (The measure appears to be due to McKibben ).
Interpretation
The foundational model for the O-Score evolved from an extensive study encompassing over 2000 companies, a notable leap from its predecessor, the Altman Z-Score, which examined a mere 66 companies. In direct comparison, the O-Score demonstrates significantly heightened accuracy in predicting bankruptcy within a 2-year horizon.
While the original Z-Score boasted an estimated accuracy of over 70%, later iterations reached impressive levels of 90%. Remarkably, the O-Score surpasses even these high benchmarks in accuracy.
It's essential to acknowledge that no mathematical model achieves 100% accuracy. While the O-Score excels in forecasting bankruptcy or solvency, its precision can be influenced by factors both internal and external to the formula.
For the O-Score, any results exceeding 0.5 indicate a heightened likelihood of the firm defaulting within two years. The O-Score stands as a robust tool in financial analysis, offering nuanced insights into a company's financial stability with a remarkable degree of accuracy.
Earnings CountdownSince TradingView for some reason removed the small UI element in the symbol details window showing the amount of days left til a company releases its next earnings report, I decided to make my own.
A simple script with options for choosing the position and at what amount of days left the displayed color should change to red (mimicking the old feature).
I would suggest placing the indicator somewhere else than the main price chart, since it will be difficult to place it somewhere where it doesn't obscure something. Default is bottom and right since I place it on a separate volume indicator where the number is clearly visible.
THISMA cbpremiumDescription:
This script is tailored for traders interested in monitoring the premium difference between the Coinbase BTCUSD pair and another selected exchange.
Key Features:
- Customizable Exchange Selection: Users can input the symbol of any other exchange to compare against Coinbase's BTCUSD pair. The default comparison is set against BITFINEX:BTCUSD.
- Real-Time Premium Calculation: The script calculates the premium or discount of Coinbase's Bitcoin price over the chosen exchange. It does this by subtracting the closing price of Bitcoin on the selected exchange from Coinbase's closing price.
- Intuitive Color Coding: The premium difference is visually represented in a histogram format. If Coinbase's price is higher, the bar is shown in a bright yellow (RGB: 236, 222, 92), indicating a premium. If it's lower, the bar is displayed in a deep blue (RGB: 46, 125, 189), signifying a discount.
Applications:
- Market Comparison: This tool is excellent for traders who want to compare Bitcoin's market value across different exchanges quickly. It helps in identifying potential arbitrage opportunities.
- Price Analysis: By understanding the premium or discount of Bitcoin on Coinbase compared to another exchange, traders can gain insights into market sentiment and potential price movements on different platforms.
ROCE with 3-Year EMAThis Pine Script indicator, "3-Year EMA of Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)," is designed for investors and traders who incorporate both fundamental and technical analysis in their market approach. ROCE is a crucial metric for evaluating the efficiency and profitability of a company's capital employment. Our script enhances this analysis by overlaying a 3-year Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the ROCE, allowing users to compare current performance against a longer-term trend.
Key Features:
ROCE Calculation: The script calculates the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) using EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) for the Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) and Capital Employed (Total Assets minus Short Term Debt) for the Fiscal Year (FY). This calculation provides a snapshot of how effectively a company is using its capital to generate profits.
3-Year EMA Overlay: The script features a 3-year EMA of the ROCE, providing a smoothed, long-term trend line. This EMA helps in identifying broader trends in a company's operational efficiency and profitability, making it easier to spot deviations from the historical norm.
Customizable for Different Data Frequencies: Whether your data is quarterly, monthly, or weekly, the script is adaptable. The length of the EMA is adjustable to suit the data frequency, ensuring accurate representation over a 3-year period.
Visualization: The ROCE and its 3-year EMA are plotted with distinct colors for easy comparison and analysis. This visual representation aids in quickly assessing the company's current performance against its historical trend.
Customization: Users can adjust the EMA length to match the frequency of their data (e.g., 12 for quarterly, 36 for monthly, 156 for weekly data).
Usage Tips:
Best used on companies with stable and consistent reporting.
Combine with other fundamental and technical indicators fo
r comprehensive analysis.
Disclaimer: This script is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.
Election Year GainsShows the yearly gains of the chart in U.S. Election years.
Use the options to turn on other years in the cycle.
For use with the 12M chart.
Will show non-sensical data with other intervals.
Crypto USD LiquidityThe "Crypto USD Liquidity " indicator is designed to offer a comprehensive analysis of liquidity dynamics within the cryptocurrency market, specifically focusing on various stablecoins. This versatile tool allows users to tailor their analysis by adjusting key parameters such as the Rate of Change (ROC) length and the smoothing rate.
The indicator incorporates a user-friendly interface with options to selectively display the supply data for major stablecoins, including USDT, BUSD, USDC, DAI, and TUSD . Users can toggle these options to observe and compare the liquidity trends of different stablecoin assets.
The total liquidity is computed as the summation of the selected stablecoin supplies, providing a holistic view of the overall crypto market liquidity. The Rate of Change (ROC) and its smoothing are then applied to the aggregated liquidity data. This process helps users identify trends and potential turning points in the liquidity landscape.
The visual representation on the chart includes a color-coded display: positive changing ROC values are shaded in green, indicating potential increases in liquidity, while negative values are shaded in red, suggesting potential decreases. This color scheme enhances the user's ability to quickly interpret the changing dynamics of stablecoin liquidity.
Moreover, the script includes a Zero Line for reference and overlays the raw ROC values for additional insight. The resulting chart not only serves as a powerful analytical tool for traders and investors but also contributes to a deeper understanding of the nuanced movements within the broader cryptocurrency market.
In summary, the "Crypto USD Liquidity" Pine Script indicator empowers users with a customizable and visually informative tool for analyzing and interpreting the complex dynamics of stablecoin liquidity, facilitating more informed decision-making in the realm of cryptocurrency trading and investment.
BTB - Bitcoin (BTC) Top and Bottom Indicator [Logue]This indicator is a combination of multiple on-chain, seasonality, and momentum BTC macro cycle bottom and top indicators. The BTB detects confluence of multiple indicators to select bottoms and tops of each BTC macro cycle. More detail can be seen on the BTI and BBI indicators. The BTB indicators are:
1) Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) - The CVDD is the ratio of the cumulative value of coin days destroyed in USD and the market age (in days). When the BTC price goes below this value, BTC is generally considered to be undervalued. The bottom indicator is triggered when the BTC price is below the CVDD or above the CVDD extension. Because the "strength" of the BTC tops has decreased over the cycles, a logarithmic function for the extension was created by fitting past cycles as log extension = slope * time + intercept.
2) Net Unrealized Profit Loss (NUPL) - The NUPL measures if past transfers of BTC are currently in an unrealized profit or loss state. Historically positive or negative NUPL values indicate an over/undervaluation of the BTC network. The bottom indicator is triggered when the NUPL is below -15 and the top is triggered above an adjusted value based on decreasing "strength" of BTC tops. A decreasing linear function (trigger = slope * time + intercept) was fit to past cycle tops and used to determine overvaluation.
3) Market Value-Realized Value Z-score (MVRV-Z) - The MVRV-Z measures the value of the bitcoin network by comparing the market cap to the realized value and dividing by the standard deviation of the market cap (market cap – realized cap) / std(market cap)). The bottom indicator is triggered when the MVRVZ value is below 4 and tops are above 55.
4) Puell multiple (PUELL) - PUELL is the ratio between the daily coin issuance in USD and its 365-day moving average. This multiple helps to measure miner profitability. Extremes in PUELL may indicate tops or bottoms. The bottom indicator triggers when the PUELL is below 0.4 and top is triggered above 3.33.
5) Calendar Seasonality Index (CSI) - The CSI takes advantage of the consistency of BTC cycles. Past cycles have formed macro bottoms every four years between December and February which triggers the bottom indicator. Past cycles have formed macro tops every four years between October 21st and December 12th, triggering the top indicator.
6) Halving Seasonality Index (HSI) - Past cycles have formed macro bottoms approximately 948 days after each halving, triggering this indicator at set times, 948 +- 45 days, after each halving. Aside from the first halving, cycles have formed macro tops approximately 538 days after each halving. Therefore, this indicator triggers at 538 +- 10 days after each halving.
7) Polylog Regression (PLR) - The BTC cycle tops and bottoms were separately fit using a polynomial regression. The shape of the regression into the future was estimated and a fit was used to estimate when tops and bottoms are near. This triggers when the BTC price is inside or below the lower polylog regression channel and when the BTC price is inside or above the upper polylog regression channel.
8) Realized Price (RP) - The RP is summation of the value of each BTC when it last moved divided by the total number of BTC in circulation. This gives an estimation of the average "purchase" price of BTC. This indicator triggers when the BTC price is below the realized price or above an RP extension. Because the "strength" of the BTC tops has decreased over the cycles, a logarithmic function for the extension was created by fitting past cycles as log extension = slope * time + intercept.
9) Plus Directional Movement (PDM) weekly index - The PDM is a momentum indicator that measures the strength of a trend in the positive direction. The weekly PDM is calculated by determining the difference between the week's high price and the previous week's high price smoothed by a 14-period moving average. Higher PDM values indicate higher momentum in the positive (higher price) direction. Based on decreasing "strength" of BTC tops, a decreasing linear function (trigger = slope * time + intercept) was fit to past cycle tops for this indicator. This indicator is triggered when the PDM is above the trigger value or below 14.
10) Logarithmic Moving Average Convergence Divergence (LMACD) weekly indicator - The LMACD is a momentum indicator that measures the strength of a trend using the difference of the log values of the 12-period and 26-week exponential moving averages. Larger positive numbers indicate a larger positive momentum. Based on decreasing "strength" of BTC tops, a decreasing linear function (trigger = slope * time + intercept) was fit to past cycle tops for this indicator. This indicator is triggered when the PDM is above the trigger value or below -0.06.
11) Hash Rate Capitulation (HRC) - The HRC indicator measures the rate of change of the hash rate. Steadily increasing hash rate is a sign of health of the bitcoin network. This indicator uses moving averages (20- and 100-day) of the hash rate to indicate when a decrease in the rate of change is has occurred (i.e., the 20-day MA goes below the 100-day MA). This indicator triggers when the 20-day moving average of the hash rate going below the 100-day moving average.
12) Pi-cycle Top (PCT) - The PCT indicator is simply the cross of the 111-day moving average above a 2x multiple of the 350-day moving average of the BTC price. While there is no fundamental reasoning behind why this works, it has worked to indicate previous bitcoin tops by taking advantage of the cyclicality of the BTC price and measurement overextension of BTC price. This indicator triggers when the fast moving average (111-day) crosses above the 2x multiple of the slow moving average (350-day).
13) Transaction Fee Spike (TFS) - Transaction fees on the bitcoin network can signal a mania phase when they increase well above historical values. This mania phase may indicate we are near a top in the BTC price. The daily transaction fee total in USD is divided by the number of daily transactions to calculate the average transaction fee paid on the bitcoin network. The transaction fees increasing above $40 trigger this indicator.
The on-chain indicators (CVDD, NUPL, MVRV-Z, PUELL, RP, and HRC) work together to give a health check of the BTC price as compared to its network health. The seasonality indicators (CSI, HSI, and PLR) work together to map the macro cycles of BTC. The momentum indicators (PDM and LMACD) give the strength of the BTC trend. Each of these indicators is weighted evenly when selected and if over 45% of the indicators are triggering on a candle, the overall BTB indicator prints a clear signal. This signal is meant to indicate when the macro cycle bottom or top is likely hit or is near.
You are able to deselect any indicator you do not wish to have considered and select it back again. To prepare you for indicators triggering, the BTB shows dark blue or dark green when the indicator is close to triggering. The background color of the BBI becomes blue when at least 30% of the indicators considered are triggering and it becomes green when the BBI fully triggers. The BLX is most appropriate chart, but the indicator works on all BTC/USD charts. Because of the limitations of TradingView, the indicator doesn't work on time frames lower than 4 h or over one week.
Use this indicator at your own risk. I make no assertions that this indicator will work to detect any future bottom or top since we all know that past performance is no guarantee of future results.
COT Index by NielsThe COT index is an indicator for determining trend reversals based on the net positions of commercials from the CFTC COT report.
A time frame of 26 weeks is selected as the basis. If the value is greater than or equal to 75, this is a bullish sign; if it is less than or equal to 25, this is a bearish sign.
You can select the number of weeks to be used for the calculation.
As the CFTC data is only published on Fridays at 21:30, the value of the current week is hidden until the market closes.
In addition, the background changes color when the index reaches an extreme range.
Both functions can be deactivated in the settings.
Hodl Calculation v1.0I have developed an indicator that calculates the value of our currency if we had periodically bought any stock or cryptocurrency on any exchange. I believe many individuals would be interested in computing such values.
You can customize the start and end times, choose the amount of currency to be used for each deal, and select from two frequency options.
The first option involves specific intervals, such as hourly, every three days, or bi-weekly.
The second option allows purchases at specific dates or times, like every 15th of the month at 12:00 PM, every Monday at 11:00 AM, or every day at 6:00 AM.
After selecting the frequency, the indicator performs calculations and presents statistical information in a table.
The summarized data includes frequency value, total selected period duration, number of deals, total quantity, total cost, current value, and profit/loss status.
MicroStrategy / Bitcoin Market Cap RatioThis indicator offers a unique analytical perspective by comparing the market capitalization of MicroStrategy (MSTR) with that of Bitcoin (BTC) . Designed for investors and analysts interested in the correlation between MicroStrategy's financial performance and the Bitcoin market, the script calculates and visualizes the ratio of MSTR's market capitalization to Bitcoin's market capitalization.
Key Features:
Start Date: The script considers data starting from July 28, 2020, aligning with MicroStrategy's initial announcement to invest in Bitcoin.
Data Sources: It retrieves real-time data for MSTR's total shares outstanding, MSTR's stock price, and BTC's market capitalization.
Market Cap Calculations: The script calculates MicroStrategy's market cap by multiplying its stock price with the total shares outstanding. It then forms a ratio of MSTR's market cap to BTC's market cap.
Bollinger Bands: To add a layer of analysis, the script includes Bollinger Bands around the ratio, with customizable parameters for length and multiplier. These bands can help identify overbought or oversold conditions in the relationship between MSTR's and BTC's market values.
The indicator plots the MSTR/BTC market cap ratio and the Bollinger Bands, providing a clear visual representation of the relationship between these two market values over time.
This indicator is ideal for users who are tracking the impact of Bitcoin's market movements on MicroStrategy's valuation or vice versa. It provides a novel way to visualize and analyze the interconnectedness of a leading cryptocurrency asset and a major corporate investor in the space.
Financials - Quick OverviewThis unique indicator is designed to provide traders and investors with a concise yet comprehensive view of a company's financial health and sector classification. It features an intuitive table displayed prominently on the chart, offering a blend of essential company information and key financial metrics. This tool is ideal for those looking to integrate fundamental analysis into their technical trading strategy.
Key Features:
Company Sector Information: Get a quick glimpse of the company's industry sector, aiding in understanding its market position and comparative performance within its industry.
Financial Overview: The table includes vital financial data such as Earnings and Sales, providing insights into the company's revenue and profitability.
Growth Metrics: Track both quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) and year-over-year (YoY) growth, offering a dynamic view of the company's performance over time.
Operating Margin Percentage (OPM%): Understand the efficiency of the company's operations with the OPM%, which indicates the proportion of revenue that remains after paying for variable costs of production.
Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio: Assess the company's stock value relative to its earnings, an essential metric for valuation and comparative analysis within the sector.
Usage: This indicator is particularly useful for investors and traders who incorporate fundamental analysis into their decision-making process. By providing key financial data directly on the chart, it allows for a more integrated approach to technical and fundamental analysis. The indicator is designed to be straightforward and easy to interpret, making it suitable for both seasoned investors and those new to financial analysis.
Free cash flow yieldThis script shows
- FCF Yield Net based on enterprise value. See reference: www.investopedia.com
- FCF Yield Diluted: which reduced CFC net by dilution amount.
- FCF % change.
This should give you a good overview on how well the company is at growing FCF and how efficiently they are creating FCF.
BTC ETF VolumesVolume
This script plots the trading volume of all BTC spot ETFs as well as the aggregate volume. Works on any chart and any timeframe.
Indicators
The volume of every ETF is plotted in a different color, with the total column adding up to the aggregate volume.
If you have price and indicator labels enabled you will also see individual ETF volume on your price scale on the right hand side.
If more BTC ETFs get launched I will add them.
Bitcoin ETF Tracker (BET)Get all the information you need about all the different Bitcoin ETFs.
With the Bitcoin ETF Tracker, you can observe all possible Bitcoin ETF data:
The ETF name.
The ticker.
The price.
The volume.
The share of total ETF volume.
The ETF fees.
The exchange and custodian.
At the bottom of the table, you'll find the day's total volume.
In addition, you can see the volume for the different Exchanges, as well as for the different Custodians.
If you don't want to display these lines to save space, you can uncheck "Show Additional Data" in the indicator settings.
The Idea
The goal is to provide the community with a tool for tracking all Bitcoin ETF data in a synthesized way, directly in your TradingView chart.
How to Use
Simply read the information in the table. You can hover above the Fees and Exchanges cells for more details.
The table takes space on the chart, you can remove the extra lines by unchecking "Show Additional Data" in the indicator settings or reduce text size by changing the "Table Text Size" parameter.
Upcoming Features
As soon as we have a little more history, we'll add variation rates as well as plots to observe the breakdown between the various Exchanges and Custodians.
MVRV Z-ScoreThe MVRV ratio was created by Murad Mahmudov & David Puell. It simply compares Market Cap to Realised Cap, presenting a ratio (MVRV = Market Cap / Realised Cap). The MVRV Z-Score is a later version, refining the metric by normalising the peaks and troughs of the data.
BTC Supply in Profits and Losses (BTCSPL) [AlgoAlpha]Description:
🚨The BTC Supply in Profits and Losses (BTCSPL) indicator, developed by AlgoAlpha, offers traders insights into the distribution of INDEX:BTCUSD addresses between profits and losses based on INDEX:BTCUSD on-chain data.
Features:
🔶Alpha Decay Adjustment: The indicator provides the option to adjust the data against Alpha Decay, this compensates for the reduction in clarity of the signal over time.
🔶Rolling Change Display: The indicator enables the display of the rolling change in the distribution of Bitcoin addresses between profits and losses, aiding in identifying shifts in market sentiment.
🔶BTCSPL Value Score: The indicator optionally displays a value score ranging from -1 to 1, traders can use this to carry out strategic dollar cost averaging and reverse dollar cost averaging based on the implied value of bitcoin.
🔶Reversal Signals: The indicator gives long-term reversal signals denoted as "▲" and "▼" for the price of bitcoin based on oversold and overbought conditions of the BTCSPL.
🔶Moving Average Visualization: Traders can choose to display a moving average line, allowing for better trend identification.
How to Use ☝️ (summary):
Alpha Decay Adjustment: Toggle this option to enable or disable Alpha Decay adjustment for a normalized representation of the data.
Moving Average: Toggle this option to show or hide the moving average line, helping traders identify trends.
Short-Term Trend: Enable this option to display the short-term trend based on the Aroon indicator.
Rolling Change: Choose this option to visualize the rolling change in the distribution between profits and losses.
BTCSPL Value Score: Activate this option to show the BTCSPL value score, ranging from -1 to 1, 1 implies that bitcoin is extremely cheap(buy) and -1 implies bitcoin is extremely expensive(sell).
Reversal Signals: Gives binary buy and sell signals for the long term
Volume Exhaustion [AlgoAlpha]Introducing the Volume Exhaustion by AlgoAlpha, is an innovative tool that aims to identify potential exhaustion or peaks in trading volume , which can be a key indicator for reversals or continuations in market trends 🔶.
Key Features:
Signal Plotting : A special feature is the plotting of 'Release' signals, marked by orange diamonds, indicating points where the exhaustion index crosses under its previous value and is above a certain boundary. This could signify critical market points 🚨.
Calculation Length Customization : Users can adjust the calculation and Signal lengths to suit their trading style, allowing for flexibility in analysis over different time periods. ☝️
len = input(50, "Calculation Length")
len2 = input(8, "Signal Length")
Visual Appeal : The script offers customizable colors (col for the indicator and col1 for the background) enhancing the visual clarity and user experience 💡.
col = input.color(color.white, "Indicator Color")
col1 = input.color(color.gray, "Background Color")
Advanced Volume Processing : At its core, the script utilizes a combination of Hull Moving Average (HMA) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) applied to the volume data. This sophisticated approach helps in smoothing out the volume data and reducing lag.
sv = ta.hma(volume, len)
ssv = ta.hma(sv, len)
Volume Exhaustion Detection : The script calculates the difference between the volume and its smoothed version, normalizing this value to create an exhaustion index (fff). Positive values of this index suggest potential volume exhaustion.
f = sv-ssv
ff = (f) / (ta.ema(ta.highest(f, len) - ta.lowest(f, len), len)) * 100
fff = ff > 0 ? ff : 0
Boundary and Zero Line : The script includes a boundary line (boundary) and a zero line (zero), with the area between them filled for enhanced visual interpretation. This helps in assessing the relative position of the exhaustion index.
Customizable Background : The script colors the background of the chart for better readability and to distinguish the indicator’s area clearly.
Overall, Volume Exhaustion is designed for traders who focus on volume analysis. It provides a unique perspective on volume trends and potential exhaustion points, which can be crucial for making informed trading decisions. This script is a valuable addition for traders looking to enhance their trading experience with advanced volume analysis tools.
Market Health MonitorThe Market Health Monitor is a comprehensive tool designed to assess and visualize the economic health of a market, providing traders with vital insights into both current and future market conditions. This script integrates a range of critical economic indicators, including unemployment rates, inflation, Federal Reserve funds rates, consumer confidence, and housing market indices, to form a robust understanding of the overall economic landscape.
Drawing on a variety of data sources, the Market Health Monitor employs moving averages over periods of 3, 12, 36, and 120 months, corresponding to quarterly, annual, three-year, and ten-year economic cycles. This selection of timeframes is specifically chosen to capture the nuances of economic movements across different phases, providing a balanced view that is sensitive to both immediate changes and long-term trends.
Key Features:
Economic Indicators Integration: The script synthesizes crucial economic data such as unemployment rates, inflation levels, and housing market trends, offering a multi-dimensional perspective on market health.
Adaptability to Market Conditions: The inclusion of both short-term and long-term moving averages allows the Market Health Monitor to adapt to varying market conditions, making it a versatile tool for different trading strategies.
Oscillator Thresholds for Recession and Growth: The script sets specific thresholds that, when crossed, indicate either potential economic downturns (recessions) or periods of growth (expansions), allowing traders to anticipate and react to changing market conditions proactively.
Color-Coded Visualization: The Market Health Monitor employs a color-coding system for ease of interpretation:
-- A red background signals unhealthy economic conditions, cautioning traders about potential risks.
-- A bright red background indicates a confirmed recession, as declared by the NBER, signaling a critical time for traders to reassess risk exposure.
-- A green background suggests a healthy market with expected economic expansion, pointing towards growth-oriented opportunities.
Comprehensive Market Analysis: By combining various economic indicators, the script offers a holistic view of the market, enabling traders to make well-informed decisions based on a thorough understanding of the economic environment.
Key Criteria and Parameters:
Economic Indicators:
Labor Market: The unemployment rate is a critical indicator of economic health.
High or rising unemployment indicates reduced consumer spending and economic stress.
Inflation: Key for understanding monetary policy and consumer purchasing power.
Persistent high inflation can lead to economic instability, while deflation can signal weak
demand.
Monetary Policy: Reflected by the Federal Reserve funds rate.
Changes in the rate can influence economic activity, borrowing costs, and investor
sentiment.
Consumer Confidence: A predictor of consumer spending and economic activity.
Reflects the public’s perception of the economy
Housing Market: The housing market often leads the economy into recession and recovery.
Weakness here can signal broader economic problems.
Market Data:
Stock Market Indices: Reflect overall investor sentiment and economic
expectations. No gains in a stock market could potentially indicate that economy is
slowing down.
Credit Conditions: Indicated by the tightness of bank lending, signaling risk
perception.
Commodity Insight:
Crude Oil Prices: A proxy for global economic activity.
Indicator Timeframe:
A default monthly timeframe is chosen to align with the release frequency of many economic indicators, offering a balanced view between timely data and avoiding too much noise from short-term fluctuations. Surely, it can be chosen by trader / analyst.
The Market Health Monitor is more than just a trading tool—it's a comprehensive economic guide. It's designed for traders who value an in-depth understanding of the economic climate. By offering insights into both current conditions and future trends, it encourages traders to navigate the markets with confidence, whether through turbulent times or in periods of growth. This tool doesn't just help you follow the market—it helps you understand it.
[Suitable Hope] Crypto Marketcap Dominance OverviewThe Crypto Marketcap Dominance Overview indicator is a simple yet very useful indicator that aims at helping traders identify where the crypto liquidity is flowing. The indicator uses Cryptocap's real time crypto marketcap dominance data (in %) between several key categories:
- Bitcoin
- True total 2 (altcoins and Ethereum excluding the top 3 biggest stablecoins)
- True total 3 (altcoins excl. Ethereum and the top 3 biggest stablecoins)
- Ethereum
- Stablecoins
- Defi.
The indicator works across all timeframes but is best used on the default daily timeframe to identify changes in liquidity trends between the different categories. More categories can be expected to be added in the future; depending on Cryptocap's available data.
Traders or users of this indicator have a selections of options:
- Choose a dedicated timeframe
- Turn on/off the individual categories they wish to use
- Turn on/off labels
- Change global colour coding of each category and label
- Activate or deactive the 0 to 100% bands
Although there are a couple of similar indicators trying to do something similar, I tend to find them lacking clarity. I coded this indicator to provide a more simple and clearer view of the crypto marketcap dominance. I hope you find this indicator helpful.
Happy trading and good luck!
Bitcoin/Hash Rate Oscillator & MAWhat it does:
Finds the ratio of BTC price to the Hash Rate with an additional MA applied to find changes in volatility with relative context. Best used as a two lines cross indicator.
When the ratio of price to hashrate increases, it may be a sign miners cannot or will not sell as much.
When the ratio decreases, it may indicate miners have more capability and/or incentive to sell.
How it works:
The indicator uses a MA applied to the hashrate(first MA input), then finds the difference between it and the actual hash rate. Then it finds the STD of that to create an oscillating value. BTC is divided by said value. Then a second MA is applied to that ratio(second MA input)
BTI - Bitcoin (BTC) Top Indicator [Logue]Bitcoin top indicator. This indicator is a combination of multiple on-chain and seasonality BTC macro cycle top indicators, plus the Pi-Cycle top moving average. Because there is no magic single indicator to detect macro cycle tops in bitcoin, the BTI detects confluence of multiple indicators to select tops of each BTC macro cycle. The individual indicators used for the BTI are:
1) Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) - The CVDD was created by Willy Woo and is the ratio of the cumulative value of Coin Days Destroyed in USD and the market age (in days). While this indicator is used to detect bottoms normally, an extension is used to allow detection of BTC tops. When the BTC price goes above the CVDD extension, BTC is generally considered to be overvalued. Because the "strength" of the BTC tops has decreased over the cycles, a logarithmic function for the extension was created by fitting past cycles as log extension = slope * time + intercept. This indicator is triggered when the BTC price is above the CVDD extension.
2) Net Unrealized Profit Loss (NUPL) - The NUPL measures the profit state of the bitcoin network to determine if past transfers of BTC are currently in an unrealized profit or loss state.
Values above zero indicate that the network is in overall profit, while values below zero indicate the network is in overall loss. Highly positive NUPL values indicate overvaluation of the BTC network. Based on decreasing "strength" of BTC tops, a decreasing linear function (trigger = slope * time + intercept) was fit to past cycle tops. Therefore, future trigger values can be calculated over time. This indicator is triggered when the NUPL is above the trigger value.
3) Market Value-Realized Value Z-score (MVRV-Z) - The MVRV-Z measures the value of the bitcoin network by comparing the market cap to the realized value and dividing by the standard deviation of the market cap (market cap – realized cap) / std(market cap)). When the market value is significantly higher than the realized value, the bitcoin network is "overvalued". Very high values have signaled cycle tops in the past. This indicator is triggered when the MVRVZ value is above 55.
4) Puell multiple (PUELL) - PUELL is the ratio between the daily coin issuance in USD and its 365-day moving average. This multiple helps to measure miner profitability. When the PUELL goes to extremely high values relative to historical values, it indicates the profitability of the miners is very high and a top may be near. This indicator triggers when the PUELL is above 3.33.
5) Calendar Seasonality Index (CSI) - The CSI takes advantage of the consistency of BTC cycles. Past cycles have formed macro tops every four years between October 21st and December 12th. Therefore, this indicator triggers at set times that are marked every four years between these two dates.
6) Halving Seasonality Index (HSI) - The HSI, as with the CSI, takes advantage of the consistency of BTC cycles following the major event that is the halving. Aside from the first halving cycle, cycles have formed macro tops approximately 538 days after each halving. Therefore, this indicator triggers at set times that are marked 528 to 548 days (i.e., 538 +- 10 days) after each halving.
7) Polylog Regression (PLR) - The BTC cycle tops and bottoms were separately fit using a polynomial regression for the PLR. The bottom band was fit on much more data than the top band, so is likely to be more reliable. The shape of the regression into the future was estimated, so may not be accurate into the future, but is the best fit of tops and bottoms to date. This indicator is used to estimate when tops and bottoms are near when the price goes into the top or bottom bands. This triggers when the BTC price is inside or above the upper polylog regression channel.
8) Realized Price (RP) - The RP is summation of the value of each BTC when it last moved divided by the total number of BTC in circulation. This gives an estimation of the average "purchase" price of BTC on the bitcoin network based on when it was last transacted. This indicator tells us if the average network participant is in a state of profit or loss. This indicator is normally used to detect BTC bottoms, but an extension can be used to detect when the bitcoin network is "highly" overvalued. Because the "strength" of the BTC tops has decreased over the cycles, a logarithmic function for the extension was created by fitting past cycles as log extension = slope * time + intercept. This indicator triggers when the BTC price is above the realized price extension.
9) Pi-cycle Top (PCT) - The PCT indicator is simply the cross of the 111-day moving average above a 2x multiple of the 350-day moving average of the BTC price. While there is no fundamental reasoning behind why this works, it has worked to indicate previous bitcoin tops by taking advantage of the cyclicality of the BTC price and measurement overextension of BTC price. This indicator triggers when the fast moving average (111-day) crosses above the 2x multiple of the slow moving average (350-day).
10) Transaction Fee Spike (TFS) - Transaction fees on the bitcoin network can signal a mania phase when they increase well above historical values. This mania phase may indicate we are near a top in the BTC price. The daily transaction fee total in USD is divided by the number of daily transactions to calculate the average transaction fee paid on the bitcoin network. The transaction fees increasing above $40 trigger this indicator.
The on-chain indicators (CVDD, NUPL, MVRV-Z, PUELL, RP, and TFS) work together to give a health check of the BTC price as compared to its network health. The seasonality indicators (CSI, HSI, and PLR) work together to map the macro cycles of BTC. The PCT gives a view of the overvaluation of the BTC price. Each of these indicators is weighted evenly when selected and if over 45% of the indicators are triggering on a candle (i.e., at least 5 of 10), the overall BTI indicator prints a clear signal -- a red dot with a white middle portion between the white horizontal lines at the top of the indicator. This signal is meant to indicate when the macro cycle top is likely already hit or is near. Each of the individual indicators used for the BTI are proven macro top indicators over multiple cycles.
Each of the individual indicators are shown in their own rows to visualize which indicators are triggering. You are able to deselect any indicator you do not wish to have considered and select it back again. To prepare you for indicators triggering, the BTI shows dark blue or dark green when the indicator is close to triggering (i.e., generally around 20% from the trigger value, a less intense background will appear, and 10% from the trigger value, a more intense background will appear). The color of the individual indicators turns pink when they are triggered. The background color of the BTI becomes blue when at least 30% of the indicators considered are triggering and it becomes purple/pink when the BTI fully triggers. See the BTC chart above the indicator showing the performance of the indicator in picking out macro top regions (red dots with white middle portion). Because not all daily data for BTC can be shown on one chart, ensure you also play with the indictor yourself. The BLX is most appropriate, but the indicator works on all BTC/USD charts. Because of the limits imposed by TradingView, the indicator doesn't work on time frames lower than 4 h or higher than the weekly.
You can use this indicator to help you understand when the BTC price is more likely topping based on past performance of these indicators. This indicator pairs with the BBI (Bitcoin (BTC) Bottom Indictor) and the BTB (Bitcoin Top and Bottom indicator).
Use this indicator at your own risk. I make no assertions that this indicator will work to detect any future top since we all know that past performance is no guarantee of future results.
BBI - Bitcoin (BTC) Bottom Indicator [Logue]This indicator is a combination of multiple on-chain and seasonality BTC macro cycle bottom indicators. Because there is no magic single indicator to detect macro cycle bottoms in bitcoin, the BBI detects confluence of multiple indicators to select bottoms of each BTC macro cycle. The individual indicators used for the BBI are:
1) Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) - The CVDD was created by Willy Woo and is the ratio of the cumulative value of Coin Days Destroyed in USD and the market age (in days). When the BTC price goes below this value, BTC is generally considered to be undervalued. This indicator is triggered when the BTC price is below the CVDD.
2) Net Unrealized Profit Loss (NUPL) - The NUPL measures the profit state of the bitcoin network to determine if past transfers of BTC are currently in an unrealized profit or loss state.
Values above zero indicate that the network is in overall profit, while values below zero indicate the network is in overall loss. Highly negative NUPL values indicate an undervaluation of the BTC network. This indicator is triggered when the NUPL is below -15.
3) Market Value-Realized Value Z-score (MVRV-Z) - The MVRV-Z measures the value of the bitcoin network by comparing the market cap to the realized value and dividing by the standard deviation of the market cap (market cap – realized cap) / std(market cap)). When the market value is significantly lower than the realized value, the bitcoin network is "undervalued". Very low values have signaled cycle bottoms in the past. This indicator is triggered when the MVRVZ value is below 4.
4) Puell multiple (PUELL) - PUELL is the ratio between the daily coin issuance in USD and its 365-day moving average. This multiple helps to measure miner profitability. When the PUELL goes to extremely low values relative to historical values, it indicates the profitability of the miners is low and a bottom may be near. This indicator triggers when the PUELL is below 0.4.
5) Calendar Seasonality Index (CSI) - The CSI takes advantage of the consistency of BTC cycles. Past cycles have formed macro bottoms every four years between December and February. Therefore, this indicator triggers at set times that are marked every four years in December, January, or February.
6) Halving Seasonality Index (HSI) - The HSI, as with the CSI, takes advantage of the consistency of BTC cycles following the major event that is the halving. Past cycles have formed macro bottoms approximately 948 days after each halving. Therefore, this indicator triggers at set times that are marked 903-993 days (i.e., 948 +- 45 days) after each halving.
7) Polylog Regression (PLR) - The BTC cycle tops and bottoms were separately fit using a polynomial regression for the PLR. The bottom band was fit on much more data than the top band, so is likely to be more reliable. The shape of the regression into the future was estimated, so may not be accurate into the future, but is the best fit of tops and bottoms to date. This indicator is used to estimate when tops and bottoms are near when the price goes into the top or bottom bands. This triggers when the BTC price is inside or below the lower polylog regression channel.
8) Realized Price (RP) - The RP is summation of the value of each BTC when it last moved divided by the total number of BTC in circulation. This gives an estimation of the average "purchase" price of BTC on the bitcoin network based on when it was last transacted. This indicator tells us if the average network participant is in a state of profit or loss. This indicator triggers when the BTC price is below the realized price.
9) Hash Rate Capitulation (HRC) - The HRC indicator measures the rate of change of the hash rate. Steadily increasing hash rate is a sign of health of the bitcoin network. This indicator uses moving averages (20- and 100-day) of the hash rate to indicate when a decrease in the rate of change is has occurred (i.e., the 20-day MA goes below the 100-day MA). This indicator triggers when the 20-day moving average of the hash rate going below the 100-day moving average.
The on-chain indicators (CVDD, NUPL, MVRV-Z, PUELL, RP, and HRC) work together to give a health check of the BTC price as compared to its network health. The seasonality indicators (CSI, HSI, and PLR) work together to map the macro cycles of BTC. Each of these indicators is weighted evenly when selected and if over 40% of the indicators are triggering on a candle (i.e., at least 4 of 9), the overall BBI indicator prints a clear signal -- a green dot with a white middle portion between the white horizontal lines at the top of the indicator. This signal is meant to indicate when the macro cycle bottom is likely already hit or is near. Each of the individual indicators used for the BBI are proven macro bottom indicators over multiple cycles.
Each of the individual indicators are shown in their own rows to visualize which indicators are triggering. You are able to deselect any indicator you do not wish to have considered and select it back again. To prepare you for indicators triggering, the BBI shows dark blue or dark green when the indicator is close to triggering (i.e., generally around 20% from the trigger value, a less intense background will appear, and 10% from the trigger value, a more intense background will appear). The color of the individual indicators turns pink when they are triggered. The background color of the BBI becomes blue when at least 30% of the indicators considered are triggering and it becomes green when the BBI fully triggers. See the BTC chart above the indicator showing the performance of the indicator in picking out macro bottom regions (green dots with white middle portion). Because not all daily data for BTC can be shown on one chart, ensure you also play with the indictor yourself. The BLX is most appropriate, but the indicator works on all BTC/USD charts. Because of the limitations of moving averages in TradingView, the indicator doesn't work on time frames lower than 4 h.
You can use this indicator to help you understand when the BTC price is more likely bottoming based on past performance of these indicators. This indicator pairs with the BTI (Bitcoin (BTC) top indictor) and the BTB (Bitcoin top and bottom) indicators.
Use this indicator at your own risk. I make no assertions that this indicator will work to detect any future bottom since we all know that past performance is no guarantee of future results.
