Quantity Theory of Money (Inflation Growth Rate)Quantity Theory of Money ( Inflation Growth Rate)
Equation:
%ΔM+%ΔV=%ΔP+%ΔY
M - Money Supply , V - Money Velocity , Y - Real GDP, P - Price
This script only takes into account money supply theory and does not account for increases/decreases in inflation due to energy costs. QTM Calculation is compared to USIRYY , USCCPI , and Sticky Price CPI . Flex_CPI and Flex_Core_CPI are not available in Trading View for comparison.
Simple Moving Average Default it set to 3 quarters for smoothing purposes. You can change this via the input window as you see fit.
CPI
Taylor RuleThe Taylor rule is a simple formula that John Taylor devised to guide policymakers. It calculates what the federal funds rate should be, as a function of the output gap and current inflation. Here, we measure the output gap as the difference between potential output and real GDP. Inflation is measured by changes in the CPI, and we use a target inflation rate of 2%. We also assume a steady-state real interest rate of 2%.
Total Inflation ModelMeasure of the total economy wide inflation of the US Dollar.
Total Inflation = growth rate of money supply / economic output
Real Interest Rate DifferentialThe Real IRD is a simple indicator built for forex trades that need a long-term view and want to compare currencies in search of high yield. The indicated interest rate maturity is 2 years, since shorter maturities may not price central banks' monetary policy decisions.
Example:
- You need to do an analysis of the AUDUSD
- In the Interest Rate 1 field, we put the interest rate for the base currency, in this case the AUD
- In the Interest Rate 2 field, the interest rate of the other currency, in this case the USD
- In the CPI 1 field, inflation referring to base currency
- In the CPI 2 field, inflation for another currency
CPI Codes:
QUANDL:RATEINF/INFLATION_USA < USD
QUANDL:RATEINF/INFLATION_EUR < EUR
QUANDL:RATEINF/INFLATION_JPN < JPY
QUANDL:RATEINF/INFLATION_CHE < CHF
QUANDL:RATEINF/INFLATION_GBR < GBP
QUANDL:RATEINF/INFLATION_CAN < CAD
QUANDL:RATEINF/INFLATION_RUS < RUB
QUANDL:RATEINF/INFLATION_AUS < AUD
QUANDL:RATEINF/INFLATION_NZL < NZD
US Inflation Rate [nb]This is the United States inflation rate, based on the total Consumer Price Index published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Option to toggle:
A line to display the inflation rate in December. It does not change until the next December.
What the color change to red is indicative of:
According to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regarding inflation rate, "2% is a bae number to be around". This does not imply a strict 2% inflation for success and allows room for federal rate cuts should they be needed.
Although FOMC declared 2% to be "bae" in 2012, James Bullard, of federal banking fame, claims that started to become the norm in 1995. Therefore the inflation rate line will only turn red 1995 onwards, and serves as a friendly reminder that inflation has been over at or over 2% for more than one month.
Sources:
www.bls.gov
www.federalreserve.gov
www.stlouisfed.org
CPI-weighted USD/RUB exchange rate calculationProjected target for USDRUB calculated by inflation rates (consumer price indexes) is 110.
