So as we have said since March (first post march 25th on BTC, and 4 more since then) - we have been waiting for and expecting a big correction back to a few key critical things:
1) BTC has been way over-extended (all the cryptos have), and desperately needs a retouch of supports.
2) BTC desperately needs to retouch the 10W and preferably also 20W MA's. CHECK-DONE
3) BTC needs to retouch previous FIB support level and re-accumulate, shake out weak hands. CHECK-DONE
All goals we have been waiting for since March have now been accomplished. Feel free to see my posts since March - press play - and watch how perfectly we landed on almost exact dollar levels of what we plotted earlier.
SO - WHAT NOW?
What we expect to happen now is a re-accumulation period between 2 and 10 days roughly (this is a wide variable, and in fact, the longer we accumulate, the better - so I would even prefer 14 to 19 days as our previous dip accumulation periods were 11 and 19 days respectively).
After that is done, we will be heading back up to break the FIB extension level we topped at, retest that level as support (S/R flip confirmation needed at that point), after which we'll be heading to the next FIB extension level which is the 423.6% mark and the last extension level typically used --- yes boys and girls we are just about to actually break the LAST standard TA extension level at 73k! This is a HUGE moment because after we break that and S/R flip it - we are literally in PRICE DISCOVERY MODE for BTC until the end of the bull market.
ANYBODY telling you they know where its going after that, DOESNT ACTUALLY KNOW - and we are all just using different metrics to try and guess it.
What I *AM* 99% certain of (because 100% is ofc impossible) - is that we will break it.
What happens after that, nobody knows.
My PERSONAL BULL CYCLE PLAN:
I highly do suspect that we will break $73k relatively soon (within next ~20 days), and that means we still have a long time left in this bull run, so theres no reason for that to be the bull run top.
I will not be taking profits at 73k, because right now we look so bullish with so much "Big Money" momentum that I think we could easily just blow past it into price discovery and reach for $100k area.
I have no expectations that $73k will be our bull run top. My personal take-profit levels are around $100k, $120k, and $140k --- I believe we will be hitting $150k before end of year, as my conservative / take-profit plan.
Being a business owner and connected to other big money CEOs and investors - the buzz is so huge right now however that I would not be surprised if we hit $250k or $350k which are numbers I am constantly hearing from major CEOs, partners at multi-$bn firms, etc....
I only take-profit off 20% of my cryptos anyway (MAXIMUM 30%, if we do end up going that high, I'd sell another 10%) - so I dont really care if we go to $1m....I am still going to be HODLing 70-80% of all my cryptos.
In the run up to the cycle, I have converted my personal financial life all into crypto - I hold about 1% in fiat for utility and 99% in crypto for all my liquid assets at this time, and this is a permanent shift for me, for the rest of my life.
So there is simply no reason to be selling the large majority of crypto. I am not a trader. I am an investor and have shifted into crypto being my 1) store of value, 2) currency, and 3) asset investment class.
Eventually I will even get rid of the 1% fiat accounts I hold at traditional banks, as I see no reason to keep them when eventually crypto and crypto-credit-cards are just as mainstream as dollar bills.
We're not quite there yet, but we will be soon!
My MOST CONSERVATIVE estimate:
If - for some reason - we sit where we are between 45k-65k and accumulate for 2-3 months, and then take another month to break the 73k 423.6% extension, putting us into something like september/october - that could, at worst, be the top of the bull market cycle this time.
This is such a conservative estimate that I am not even going to be taking profits at this point, UNLESS we have indeed NOT broken the previous ATH (~64k) a whole 30-days from now.
Let me repeat that for clarity: IF we still have not broken previous ATH (~64k) 30 days from now (~June 15th) then I will consider this super conservative estimate and re-evaluate where I put my take profits.
Not planning on doing another BTCUSD post until we see one of the above triggers happen.....so however long that takes.....5 days....30 days....see you guys at 73k soon!
Take care and BUY THE DIP!
1) BTC has been way over-extended (all the cryptos have), and desperately needs a retouch of supports.
2) BTC desperately needs to retouch the 10W and preferably also 20W MA's. CHECK-DONE
3) BTC needs to retouch previous FIB support level and re-accumulate, shake out weak hands. CHECK-DONE
All goals we have been waiting for since March have now been accomplished. Feel free to see my posts since March - press play - and watch how perfectly we landed on almost exact dollar levels of what we plotted earlier.
SO - WHAT NOW?
What we expect to happen now is a re-accumulation period between 2 and 10 days roughly (this is a wide variable, and in fact, the longer we accumulate, the better - so I would even prefer 14 to 19 days as our previous dip accumulation periods were 11 and 19 days respectively).
After that is done, we will be heading back up to break the FIB extension level we topped at, retest that level as support (S/R flip confirmation needed at that point), after which we'll be heading to the next FIB extension level which is the 423.6% mark and the last extension level typically used --- yes boys and girls we are just about to actually break the LAST standard TA extension level at 73k! This is a HUGE moment because after we break that and S/R flip it - we are literally in PRICE DISCOVERY MODE for BTC until the end of the bull market.
ANYBODY telling you they know where its going after that, DOESNT ACTUALLY KNOW - and we are all just using different metrics to try and guess it.
What I *AM* 99% certain of (because 100% is ofc impossible) - is that we will break it.
What happens after that, nobody knows.
My PERSONAL BULL CYCLE PLAN:
I highly do suspect that we will break $73k relatively soon (within next ~20 days), and that means we still have a long time left in this bull run, so theres no reason for that to be the bull run top.
I will not be taking profits at 73k, because right now we look so bullish with so much "Big Money" momentum that I think we could easily just blow past it into price discovery and reach for $100k area.
I have no expectations that $73k will be our bull run top. My personal take-profit levels are around $100k, $120k, and $140k --- I believe we will be hitting $150k before end of year, as my conservative / take-profit plan.
Being a business owner and connected to other big money CEOs and investors - the buzz is so huge right now however that I would not be surprised if we hit $250k or $350k which are numbers I am constantly hearing from major CEOs, partners at multi-$bn firms, etc....
I only take-profit off 20% of my cryptos anyway (MAXIMUM 30%, if we do end up going that high, I'd sell another 10%) - so I dont really care if we go to $1m....I am still going to be HODLing 70-80% of all my cryptos.
In the run up to the cycle, I have converted my personal financial life all into crypto - I hold about 1% in fiat for utility and 99% in crypto for all my liquid assets at this time, and this is a permanent shift for me, for the rest of my life.
So there is simply no reason to be selling the large majority of crypto. I am not a trader. I am an investor and have shifted into crypto being my 1) store of value, 2) currency, and 3) asset investment class.
Eventually I will even get rid of the 1% fiat accounts I hold at traditional banks, as I see no reason to keep them when eventually crypto and crypto-credit-cards are just as mainstream as dollar bills.
We're not quite there yet, but we will be soon!
My MOST CONSERVATIVE estimate:
If - for some reason - we sit where we are between 45k-65k and accumulate for 2-3 months, and then take another month to break the 73k 423.6% extension, putting us into something like september/october - that could, at worst, be the top of the bull market cycle this time.
This is such a conservative estimate that I am not even going to be taking profits at this point, UNLESS we have indeed NOT broken the previous ATH (~64k) a whole 30-days from now.
Let me repeat that for clarity: IF we still have not broken previous ATH (~64k) 30 days from now (~June 15th) then I will consider this super conservative estimate and re-evaluate where I put my take profits.
Not planning on doing another BTCUSD post until we see one of the above triggers happen.....so however long that takes.....5 days....30 days....see you guys at 73k soon!
Take care and BUY THE DIP!
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