XAU/USD Gold Potential Consolidation Analysis

Diupdate

Chart is self-explanatory. Notice the change of character on first peak - no decline has been this sudden since last consolidation range. The volume on the peak is also the highest since the markup (ignore news peaks). This 'change of character' tell us that something different is happening in the market now. It was in markup, so therefore, it may be safe to say that it is doing something other than markup now - potentially a new consolidation range.

Price action and volume analysis in this area will tell us what is happening as time unfolds.
I will not take a position until the above has been analysed and a direction out of the range is evident.

Catatan

Update on the range and what I'm looking for:

Catatan

Another update and indication that we are doing the right thing:

Catatan

Price being pushed back into the range when it tries to leave through the top may be seen as an early indication of distribution by some. However, I am going to wait until the end of Phase B. Phase C (UTAD or spring) is where we confirm whether it is accumulation or distribution and is usually the ideal place for first entry. It will offer the best R:R profile and a very tight SL. To take a trade before we complete Phase B is (unnecessary) higher risk.

Catatan

Further update on range behaviour and bounds:

Catatan

This is why you should stay calm and not enter early until you figure out what is happening! UT in Phase B seemed to keep rising which is a little unusual. Then I studied the reactions after BC. It seems we may have a non-horizontal/upward/strong consolidation range. Again, time will tell what's going on.

Catatan

Looking like distribution, but, will wait and see to minimise risk.

Catatan

Fell asleep so could no longer analyse live. Woke up and have seen this.

Catatan

95 pip TP based on range size. SL 1264.

Catatan

uk.tradingview.com/chart/IeyFhnHu/

Catatan

wrong link previously

Catatan

Scaling in on retests is normal for Wyckoffians.

Catatan

I hope you can see the scale in chance above on the lowest dotted line.

Catatan

Sensible place to TP here:

Catatan

markdown channel for final TP around 1230. Will probably leave markdown channel with or without a retest at that point.

Catatan

Sometimes zooming out can help give a clearer picture. It helped find the markdown channel in this case.

Catatan

Channel still being respected in markdown:

Catatan

Trade published from this stage:

XAU Gold Short (LIVE Analysis From Before Trade Too)

Catatan

Go to this link (posted below too) to continue this analysis and trade.

AbsS

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