Emas / Dollar A.S.Penjualan
The downtrend of GOLD is still dominant
Under pressure from the strengthening of the US Dollar 
DXY and as markets digest the potential impact of Donald Trump's victory on US interest rate expectations, XAUUSD fell again on Friday (November 8) after recovering. Biggest weekly drop in months.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday but said it would adopt a cautious strategy for further cuts. Trump's victory has raised questions about whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates more slowly and in smaller amounts because of the former president's tariff policies.
However, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the election results would have no "short-term" impact on monetary policy. So far this year, expectations of a half-basis-point interest rate cut starting in September have supported gold's record recovery.
AlthoughXAUUSD considered a safe haven from inflation but a possibility for higher interest rates has reduced the appeal of non-yielding gold.
Due to Trump's tariff policy, his election has led to market speculation that the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could be smaller and slower.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell did not provide advance guidance on monetary policy and left options open at future meetings. He emphasized that because the economy is strong, the Fed can take its time lowering interest rates.
Powell acknowledged that even after Thursday's rate cut, policy remains limited as officials aim to lower interest rates to neutral levels.
In terms of Friday's economic data, the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index showed US consumer confidence rose to a seven-month high in early November and an index measuring US expectations Households on the future rose to their highest level in more than three months.
Specific data shows that the initial value of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index in the United States increased to 73.0 in November, much higher than the previous value of 70.5 and expectations of the market is 71.0.
Additionally, the preliminary value of the University of Michigan's expectations index in the US rose to 78.5 in November, the highest since mid-2021.
These surveys were conducted between October 22 and November 4, before Mr. Trump was elected president of the United States.
Overall assessment of the current fundamental picture is that Gold is suffering from two main impacts as President Trump is likely to boost the USD due to his tariff policies and economic trends, this is not true. Gold's correlation with the US Dollar is beneficial. On the other hand, gold is supported by the Fed's interest rate trend, and the market's expectations of continued interest rate cuts.
However, in the short term, with Trump newly re-elected, the need to create an impression may dim the market's attention to the Fed and gold will be under more pressure from the USD's potential.
According to official data released last Thursday, the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) chain of stopping gold purchases extended to the sixth month in October.
China's gold reserves reached 2,063.84 tons at the end of last month. However, the value of this gold reserve has increased thanks to the continuous increase in gold prices. As of September 30, the value of the country's gold reserves had increased to $191.47 billion, up from $182.98 billion at the end of August.
About this week's economic calendar
Next week's economic calendar is relatively light, with major economic news events including US core October CPI data on Wednesday, PPI report on Thursday and data on claims weekly unemployment claims as well as US retail sales data on Friday.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will also speak on Thursday, his first opportunity to comment on the incoming administration and central bank independence. These events will be the focus of market participants and could have an impact on the gold market.
![GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Nov 11 - Nov 15]](https://s3.tradingview.com/d/dVUZJE32_mid.png)
Analysis of technical prospects forXAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold stopped recovering after reaching EMA21, the most recent key resistance level noted by readers in previous editions.
Currently, the weakening momentum is also limited with the closing position still above the $2,684 technical point which is the nearest horizontal support and then the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level.
Although the downward momentum is limited, in general the trend and technical conditions are still leaning towards the possibility of a decrease in price with the short-term trend being noticed by the price channel and important resistance at EMA21, on the other hand, The relative strength index (RSI) is also bending downward from the 50 area, showing signs that there is still ample room for price decline ahead.
Judging from the technical chart, gold tends to decline in price and notable points will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,668 – 2,640USD
Resistance: 2,697 – 2,700 – 2,710USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2721 - 2719⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2725
→Take Profit 1 2714
↨
→Take Profit 2 2709
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2639 - 2641⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2635
→Take Profit 1 2646
↨
→Take Profit 2 2651
DXY and as markets digest the potential impact of Donald Trump's victory on US interest rate expectations, XAUUSD fell again on Friday (November 8) after recovering. Biggest weekly drop in months.The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday but said it would adopt a cautious strategy for further cuts. Trump's victory has raised questions about whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates more slowly and in smaller amounts because of the former president's tariff policies.
However, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the election results would have no "short-term" impact on monetary policy. So far this year, expectations of a half-basis-point interest rate cut starting in September have supported gold's record recovery.
Although
XAUUSD considered a safe haven from inflation but a possibility for higher interest rates has reduced the appeal of non-yielding gold.Due to Trump's tariff policy, his election has led to market speculation that the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could be smaller and slower.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell did not provide advance guidance on monetary policy and left options open at future meetings. He emphasized that because the economy is strong, the Fed can take its time lowering interest rates.
Powell acknowledged that even after Thursday's rate cut, policy remains limited as officials aim to lower interest rates to neutral levels.
In terms of Friday's economic data, the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index showed US consumer confidence rose to a seven-month high in early November and an index measuring US expectations Households on the future rose to their highest level in more than three months.
Specific data shows that the initial value of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index in the United States increased to 73.0 in November, much higher than the previous value of 70.5 and expectations of the market is 71.0.
Additionally, the preliminary value of the University of Michigan's expectations index in the US rose to 78.5 in November, the highest since mid-2021.
These surveys were conducted between October 22 and November 4, before Mr. Trump was elected president of the United States.
Overall assessment of the current fundamental picture is that Gold is suffering from two main impacts as President Trump is likely to boost the USD due to his tariff policies and economic trends, this is not true. Gold's correlation with the US Dollar is beneficial. On the other hand, gold is supported by the Fed's interest rate trend, and the market's expectations of continued interest rate cuts.
However, in the short term, with Trump newly re-elected, the need to create an impression may dim the market's attention to the Fed and gold will be under more pressure from the USD's potential.
According to official data released last Thursday, the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) chain of stopping gold purchases extended to the sixth month in October.
China's gold reserves reached 2,063.84 tons at the end of last month. However, the value of this gold reserve has increased thanks to the continuous increase in gold prices. As of September 30, the value of the country's gold reserves had increased to $191.47 billion, up from $182.98 billion at the end of August.
About this week's economic calendar
Next week's economic calendar is relatively light, with major economic news events including US core October CPI data on Wednesday, PPI report on Thursday and data on claims weekly unemployment claims as well as US retail sales data on Friday.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will also speak on Thursday, his first opportunity to comment on the incoming administration and central bank independence. These events will be the focus of market participants and could have an impact on the gold market.
Analysis of technical prospects for
XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold stopped recovering after reaching EMA21, the most recent key resistance level noted by readers in previous editions.
Currently, the weakening momentum is also limited with the closing position still above the $2,684 technical point which is the nearest horizontal support and then the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level.
Although the downward momentum is limited, in general the trend and technical conditions are still leaning towards the possibility of a decrease in price with the short-term trend being noticed by the price channel and important resistance at EMA21, on the other hand, The relative strength index (RSI) is also bending downward from the 50 area, showing signs that there is still ample room for price decline ahead.
Judging from the technical chart, gold tends to decline in price and notable points will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,668 – 2,640USD
Resistance: 2,697 – 2,700 – 2,710USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2721 - 2719⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2725
→Take Profit 1 2714
↨
→Take Profit 2 2709
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2639 - 2641⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2635
→Take Profit 1 2646
↨
→Take Profit 2 2651
Catatan
The world gold market witnessed the second consecutive decline in price on Monday, as investors are holding their breath waiting for US economic data and important statements from Fed officials this week, in order to looking for clearer signals about the future interest rate direction of the world's leading economy.Catatan
Gold prices remained stable after falling 2.5% in the previous session. The DXY index rose to its highest level in a year as the market expected the USD to continue to appreciate due to the impact of Trump's trade tariff policies, along with US economic growth. A stronger USD makes goods priced in this currency more expensive for international investors.Catatan
Catatan
Gold fell below 2,600 USD/oz, surpassing the October bottomCatatan
Fed's Barkin: The Fed's focus could shift to increasing inflation risks or reducing employment risks, depending on how the economy develops.Catatan
Gold prices fell to near a two-month low on Tuesday (November 12), as a stronger dollar, optimism about economic growth under the second Trump administration and broader market shifts increased. market after the US Presidential election on November 5.Catatan
Under new President Donald Trump, the Fed may face new policies, as companies plan to raise prices to prepare for higher tariffs on imports that he proposes. Although the Fed just cut interest rates by 25 bps, Chairman Jerome Powell affirmed that the election will not affect the Fed's decisions in the short term because it is too early to predict the timing or nature of policy changes. potential fiscal.Catatan
Gold dropped to nearly 2,560 USD/ozCatatan
🔴Spot gold is 1.00% lower on the day, falling below $2,550 an ounce for the first time since September 18.Catatan
Spot gold price decreased 0.1% to 2,570.05 USD/oz, hitting the lowest level since September 12. US gold futures contracts closed down 0.5% at 2,572.90 USD.
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🧩Get an average of 1200 pips per month
🧩Consulting on Risk Management
🧩Account management
🧩Forex signals have a high win rate
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