GOLD recovers from $2,300, limited with main trend

XAUUSD recovered after falling to $2,300/ounce and rebounded to operate around $2,330/ounce. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds remained below 4.3% after the latest US data, helping gold prices rise on demand after the US Dollar weakened.

XAUUSD rose Tuesday after U.S. economic data showed a weaker-than-expected retail sales report led to curbs on consumer spending. This suggests the Federal Reserve could begin its easing cycle this year.

The US Department of Commerce released retail sales data for May that improved compared to April. This data revived investors' hopes for an interest rate cut after the Fed signaled at its meeting. most recent meeting that current monetary policy is appropriate.
Other data showed industrial production improved in May but was revised downward in April.

In addition to economic data, Fed officials also speak at press conferences
• New York Fed President John Williams said interest rates will gradually decline if deflation continues toward the Fed's annual core inflation target of 2%. While dodging questions about a September rate cut, he added: "I think things are moving in the right direction."
• Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin appeared cautious, saying he would need to see more data before easing policy. Later, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said she would not be enthusiastic about improving inflation data, adding that now is not the time to cut interest rates.
• New St. Fed President Louis Alberto Mussallem said he needs to see how the deflation process progresses before voting to cut interest rates. He added that he favors raising interest rates if inflation stops, even though that is not his baseline forecast.
While most policymakers are neutral, US Treasury yields reflect investors starting to evaluate a rate cut. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell to 4.219%.

In addition to factors such as Macro Data and Fed officials, readers also need to pay special attention to issues such as geopolitical conflicts and precious metal trading activities of leading central banks, which This idea is always reminded through every publication sent to you.

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold again recovered from the bearish price target area noticed by readers in previous publications at the support area of ​​2,305 – 2,300 USD.
However, the recovery momentum is always limited by the resistance confluence created by EMA21, the 0.236% Fibonacci level and the upper edge of the price channel with the technical point 2,340 - 2,345USD.

As long as gold remains below the EMA21 and within the price channel, its technical outlook remains bearish with the condition that a new bearish cycle will be ushered in once the $2,300 raw price level is broken below then target level. The target will be around 2,286 USD in the short term, more than the 2,272 USD price point of the Fibonacci 0.382%.

During the day, the technical downtrend of gold prices will be noticed by the following price levels.
Support: 2,324 – 2,305 – 2,300USD
Resistance: 2,340 – 2,345USD

🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2351 - 2349

⚰️SL: 2355

⬆️TP1: 2344
⬆️TP2: 2339

🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2299 - 2301

⚰️SL: 2295

⬆️TP1: 2306
⬆️TP2: 2311

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➡️THE PERFORMANCE OF THE US DOLLAR NOW

During global market trading on Wednesday, the US dollar index (which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of six other foreign currencies) witnessed a decline of 0.08% and reached the level of 105.165 points, affected by several factors

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World gold prices were little changed last night and this morning (June 20), when the US financial market was closed for a holiday and investors were still "hungry" hoping that the Fed could cut interest rates in September. 9. According to some experts, gold prices are unlikely to increase sharply in the short term, but the factors that support the price of this precious metal in the long term remain unchanged...

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🟢Turkey records its largest monthly budget surplus ever, recording $6.7 billion in May, according to the Ministry of Treasury and Finance.

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World gold prices increased sharply in the trading session on Thursday (June 20), after statistics showing the weakness of the US economy reinforced the possibility that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would start interest rate cut in September this year. Some experts say bulls have regained the upper hand in the gold market and are aiming for the next target of prices above 2,400 USD/oz.

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This week, many important US economic reports will be published. In particular, investors' special attention will be paid to the personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) report for May, expected to be announced by the US Department of Commerce on Friday. PCE - the Fed's preferred inflation measure - is forecast to continue to show a deceleration in inflation...

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- XAUUSD cannot sustain above 2,350 USD per troy ounce. Prices retraced and began consolidating around $2,300 per troy ounce, just above support.
- If XAUUSD sustains above $2,300 per troy ounce, the price could test $2,350 and the high set on June 7.
- However, if XAUUSD trends below the $2,300 per troy ounce zone, the price could drop to the next psychological support level.

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US officials fear that war could break out between Israel and Hezbollah, between political parties and heavily armed militias in Lebanon backed by Iran. The war in Gaza has stirred long-standing conflicts with Hezbollah and other Iran-backed proxy groups in the Middle East.

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On the international market, today's gold price reached 2,331 USD/ounce, an increase of 12 USD compared to the previous session. World gold prices increased when interest rates on 10-year US Treasury bonds decreased. This makes gold, which is a non-interest-bearing asset, more attractive to other investment channels.

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Gold is turning into a loss today as these risks increase

Gold prices fell on Tuesday morning with the opening of the Asian session after yesterday’s rise, and the price of spot gold contracts fell by 0.4% to $2,325.10 per ounce, while gold futures contracts fell to $2,337, a decrease of 0.31%.

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🟢In the US, investors contending with uncertainty related to inflation, interest rates and geopolitics are already bracing for volatility that could accompany the presidential campaign and November election.

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- If XAUUSD holds above $2,300/ounce, the price could retest its previous swing high around $2,350/ounce before heading towards resistance at $2,400/ounce.
- On the contrary, XAUUSD could retest the previous swing bottom at around 2,275-2,285 USD/ounce if the price closes below the support level.

Komentar:

World gold prices plummeted to their lowest level in 2 weeks, penetrating the important psychological threshold of 2,300 USD/oz, as the USD increased sharply while the market waited for an important US inflation report. Some experts believe that the toughness of US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials and the rise of the USD will continue to put downward pressure on gold prices in the short term, but the gold price trend may change. should be clearer from Friday.

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🟡Gold prices stabilized today after falling to the lowest level in two weeks in the previous session, with investors awaiting US inflation data in search of indications about the path of the US Federal Reserve reducing interest rates.

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🟢One bank expects gold prices to fall to this level!

After gold prices (XAU/USD) rose earlier in the year, analysts at ABN AMRO Bank were cautious about their outlook on gold prices and maintained their forecasts at $2,000 per ounce by December 2024.

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Gold prices rose more than 1% on Thursday (June 27) from a more than two-week low hit in the previous session, as the dollar weakened and attention turned to key US inflation data to looking for clues about the policy roadmap of the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

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🟡Gold prices are declining, but they are heading to record an increase for the third quarter in a row, at a time when investors are awaiting US inflation data scheduled to be released later today.

- Gold in spot transactions fell 0.3% to $2,321.18 per ounce

- Gold prices increased by about 4% during the second quarter of 2024

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(Focus) US core PCE: 0.1% m/m (Forecast: 0.1%. Previous: 0.2%)
Canadian GDP: 0.3 % m/m (Forecast: 0.3%. Previous: 0.0%)