GOLD heads to era levels, pay special attention to NFP

2 Agu

XAUUSD continues to trade with an uptrend, heading towards all-time levels as markets eye upcoming US nonfarm payrolls data, to be released today (Friday) this week.

FED
Although the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting on Wednesday, Chairman Jerome Powell said rates could be cut in September if the US economy grows as expected.
Recent economic data supports interest rate cuts, but Fed officials remain skeptical about the reflation process and say they want to see more data.
According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 70% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 29.5%.
As an effective traditional economic and geopolitical risk hedge, gold typically performs well and finds support in low interest rate environments.

In terms of economic data
US ISM manufacturing data fell for a fourth straight month and initial jobless claims rose last week, again raising concerns that the US economy could fall into recession .
According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday, initial jobless claims rose from 14,000 to 249,000 in the week ended July 27. The survey forecast was for 236,000.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported Thursday that the ISM manufacturing index fell 1.7 to 46.8 in July. A reading below 50 indicates industry activity is contracting. The latest data was weaker than all surveys expected.
Traders now await Friday's US jobs report for further direction on Fed policy.
It is expected that the US will create 175,000 new jobs in July and the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%.
If non-farm data falls short of expectations, the US dollar could suffer, thereby stimulating further gold price increases.

Political geography
According to many sources, Iran may attack Israel in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran earlier this week. The United States is preparing for an Iranian attack on Israel in the coming days.
We need to remember the time in 2019 when Iran also attacked Israel in retaliation for the assassination of the leader of Iran's special forces, and at this time gold increased significantly.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior Iranian political and military officials said Iran would retaliate for Haniyeh's assassination.
A senior Israeli official said the Israeli intelligence community predicted Iran would launch a large-scale missile attack on Israel.

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
After gold fell and received support from the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement area it recovered and continued the main uptrend approaching all-time levels. Note to readers in yesterday's edition.

In the short term, there is no more notable level of technical resistance than the all-time high at $2,484, while the closest support is at $2,437 and the main trend is an uptrend highlighted by the channel. price and moving average EMA21.
In addition, the relative strength index (RSI) is pointing up, showing that the momentum and room for price increases are still wide.

As long as gold remains above $2,437, it still has short-term upside prospects. Meanwhile, even if sold below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, the downward momentum will still be limited by the confluence of support from EMA21 and Fibonacci 0.382%.

During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices continues to be bullish with notable technical levels listed as follows.
Support: 2,437 – 2,431USD
Resistance: 2,484USD

🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2476 - 2474

⚰️SL: 2480

⬆️TP1: 2469
⬆️TP2: 2464

🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2420 - 2422

⚰️SL: 2416

⬆️TP1: 2427
⬆️TP2: 2432

2 Agu

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2 Agu

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2 Agu

Catatan

The market is expecting the Fed to lower interest rates very sharply in the upcoming meeting

Nonfarm payrolls report shows unemployment rate skyrocketing from 4.1% to 4.3%

3 Agu

Catatan

4 Agu

Catatan

Gold prices have fluctuated rapidly in the past week, when they skyrocketed, they also quickly "collapsed" under pressure from investors to take profits. However, both analysts and experts believe that gold prices will continue to increase when supported by many factors

4 Agu

Catatan

From a technical perspective, gold prices still show an upward trend on long-term time frames, although there are corrections in the short-term frame. Gold prices may continue to maintain wave 5 corresponding to the Weekly chart, increasing above the 2500 round resistance level next week if it breaks through the old peak at 2483. If it fails to break through this resistance level, gold prices will move sideways within the range of 2385-2485.

5 Agu

Catatan

The ISM services PMI index increased 2.6 points to 51.4. This index is slightly higher than economists' forecasts. The gain was driven by a recovery in employment, orders and business activity, which showed much of the economy was growing at a modest pace. Reports last week showed a weakening labor market and a decline in the manufacturing sector, raising fears of a recession and suffering global financial markets.

6 Agu

Catatan

Gold prices fell more than 1% on Monday (August 5), falling into a sell-off in global markets, due to growing concerns about the state of the economy, although analysts said This will be a temporary adjustment to safe haven assets.

6 Agu

Catatan

The DXY index is recovering and could open a favorable week for buyers. Many experienced traders took advantage of Monday's decline to take stock and leisurely enjoy the salmon swimming upstream when the US recession clearly wasn't really in the spotlight.