Outlook for new era level, most important data of the week

6 Sep

XAUUSD remains in a strong uptrend after yesterday's breakout, an outlook for a new bull run and weekly target levels. On this trading day, the market will receive the most important data of the week and will create major fluctuations in the entire financial market in general, and the gold market in particular.

On Thursday, as weak US ADP jobs data weighed on the US Dollar, gold futures broke out strongly towards the weekly target level.

The United States releases the ADP jobs report on Thursday, showing private sector employment rose by a seasonally adjusted 99,000 in August, a new low since January 2021, lower many expected and months before.

Today (Friday), the market will receive the US nonfarm payrolls report for August.
Surveys show the number of nonfarm workers in the United States is expected to increase by a seasonally adjusted 160,000 in August, following an increase of 114,000 in July.
Investors also need to closely monitor US unemployment data. Surveys show the US unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.2% from 4.3% in August.
If the unemployment rate in August is equal to or higher than July, gold prices will receive important fundamental support due to the possibility that the Fed will cut interest rates even more sharply, which could completely push up gold prices. all-time high or refresh all-time high.

On the other hand, if non-farm payroll data is lower than expected or equal to the previous month, gold prices will be strongly supported by this when both employment data and unemployment rate are released at the same time.

The current basic trend of gold will still maintain an uptrend when supported by most macroeconomic conditions such as geopolitical risks with many potential driving forces for price increases, supported by the path of policy changes of the Government. Fed and the weakening of the USD as well as US bond yields.
The basic picture will shape the trend for quite a long time, but it will be the main trend that shapes all technical changes.

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
Gold is still aiming for the weekly upside price target presented to readers in Sunday's weekly edition, and as price activity is above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension it should qualify for a bullish outlook. in short term.

On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index is pointing up but still quite far from the overbought level, showing that there is still wide room for price growth ahead.

As long as gold remains above the EMA21, within the price channel and above the 0.786% Fibonacci level, it is still trending up in the short term.
More broadly, as long as gold remains within the price channel, any pullback should be considered a technical correction and not the primary trend.

During the day, the rising prospect of gold prices will be noticed by the following levels.
Support: 2,503 – 2,500USD
Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD

SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2533 - 2531⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2537

→Take Profit 1 2526
↨
→Take Profit 2 2521

BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2496 - 2498⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2492

→Take Profit 1 2503
↨
→Take Profit 2 2508

6 Sep

Catatan

This week, the JOLTS report on job vacancies released Wednesday showed a decline. Next, yesterday's ADP employment report also disappointed when it was lower than expected. Not to mention, the ISM employment index also showed a slight decrease compared to expectations, further reinforcing the assessment of a cooling labor market.

8 Sep

Catatan

World gold prices fell sharply in the trading session on Friday (September 6), slipping from the 2,500 USD/oz mark, after the US Department of Labor released the August employment report. Although these statistics are worse Expectations, the market increased bets on the possibility of the Fed choosing a smaller interest rate cut in the upcoming meeting, leading to devaluation pressure on gold.

8 Sep

Catatan

8 Sep

Catatan

Data recently released by the China Foreign Exchange Administration shows that the country's gold reserves as of the end of August 2024 were 72.8 million ounces, remaining the same as at the end of July and unchanged for the 4th consecutive month. next. Previously, the People's Bank of China (PBoc, the central bank) increased its gold holdings for 18 consecutive months.

9 Sep

Catatan

After a week dominated by employment data, the gold market will continue to wait for the inflation report with the most important data being the US August CPI published this Wednesday morning (September 11). .

9 Sep

Catatan

Gold prices saw an intraday reversal from near historic highs and fell below the psychological mark of $2,500 following the release of US jobs data on Friday. A mixed US jobs report reduced the likelihood of a 50 basis point Fed rate cut, which in turn prompted some short-term USD buying and put pressure on precious metals.

10 Sep

Catatan

Gold prices struggled to extend the previous session's gain from the $2,485 area and fell slightly during the Asian session on Tuesday, as the USD continued to strengthen. Investors have tempered expectations that the Fed will lower interest rates more sharply in September after the US monthly jobs report released on Friday had mixed results. This pushed the DXY index back close to the monthly peak reached last week and put pressure on the precious metal.