ADP exerts pressure, but geopolitics is the main influence now

3 Okt

XAUUSD is trading quite stable during the Asian trading session on October 3, as of the time this article was completed, spot gold was trading at 2,655USD/oz.

After the release of stronger-than-expected US ADP data the previous trading day, the US Dollar strengthened and gold prices plummeted to 2,640.91USD/ounce. However, affected by tensions in the Middle East, gold prices have recovered strongly from low levels.
Although the "small non-farm" ADP data stimulated a rise in the US Dollar and US bond yields, which was not good for gold prices, tensions in the Middle East supported gold prices, which is very easy to see recently as news and breaking points from the Middle East cover the market.

U.S. ADP private-sector employment rose by 143,000 in September, more than an expected gain of 125,000, according to Wednesday's economic data. The previous value was an increase of 99,000.

Israel will carry out “massive retaliation” in the next few days
Israeli officials say Israel will launch "significant retaliation" in the coming days to Iran's major missile attack on Tuesday, which could target oil production facilities and other strategic locations in Iran, the American news website Axios reported on Wednesday.

Israel and Iran have never been closer to opening a new, much more dangerous front in the war raging across the Middle East.
Iran threatened Tuesday to launch another attack if Israel responded with force following the launch of nearly 200 missiles on Tuesday.

On Wednesday local time, Iranian President Pezeshyan visited Qatar and held talks with Qatari Emir (Head of State) Tamim. Pezeshchiyan said in a press conference after the talks that Israel's military operations against the Gaza Strip, attacks on Hamas leader Haniyeh in Iran and military attacks against Lebanon forced Iran to respond. pay.
Pezeshchiyan warned that if Israel carries out retaliatory attacks on Iran, Iran will respond more forcefully.

In times of political uncertainty, gold benefits from its safe-haven nature and can benefit from a rate-cutting environment because it does not generate interest.

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
Gold has almost moved sideways in the last few trading sessions, and every time corrections occur it always recovers quickly and maintains the main uptrend from the price channel.

The fact that gold is trading above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension provides the possibility of continued price increases with a fixed short-term target at 2,672 USD, which also means that the technical point of 2,672 USD is currently the closest resistance. at, then at 2,685USD.

There is no change in the technical structure with bullish conditions dominating the daily chart.

During the day, the bullish outlook for gold prices will be noticed by the following technical levels.
Support: 2,645 – 2,634USD
Resistance: 2,672 – 2,685USD

SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2701 - 2699⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2705

→Take Profit 1 2694
↨
→Take Profit 2 2689

BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2619 - 2621⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2615

→Take Profit 1 2626
↨
→Take Profit 2 2631

3 Okt

Catatan

Gold prices traded with a downtrend for the second day in a row as the USD strengthened.
Expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in November were pushed back, helping the USD rise to its highest level in weeks.
Geopolitical risks continue to act as a driving force to limit XAU/USD's decline.

3 Okt

Catatan

The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) US services PMI rose 3.4 points to 54.9 last month. The new orders index increased 6.4 points to its highest level since the beginning of 2023. The above data shows that the US economy is still quite solid at the end of the third quarter. Treasury yields and the S&P 500 index rose following the figures.

4 Okt

Catatan

At the end of the trading session on October 3, the spot gold contract was almost flat at 2,657.89 USD/oz, after reaching a record high of 2,685.42 USD/oz.

4 Okt

Catatan

4 Okt

Catatan

- According to CME's FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 0.50% has decreased to 34.6% from more than 57% last week. Market participants will monitor today's Nonfarm Payrolls release to further assess this possibility.
- XAUUSD recently consolidated in the 2.640-2.685 range

4 Okt

Catatan

Gold price increased to 2,670 USD/oz

Gold prices have dropped more than 300 pips to close to 2630 USD/oz due to the strong US employment report, gold prices have now recovered all the decline to 2670 USD/oz.

5 Okt

Catatan

At the end of the trading session on October 4, the spot gold contract retreated 0.3% to 2,647.52 USD/oz, after reaching a record high of 2,685.42 USD/oz last week. Gold futures contracts lost 0.5% to 2,666.60 USD/oz.

US job growth accelerated in September and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, further reducing pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates by 0.5% at its November 6-7 policy meeting.

6 Okt

Catatan

In the context of rising global debt and instability, gold remains the only asset that does not carry third-party risks and does not come with geopolitical risks. These are the two main reasons why major central banks continuously hoard gold.

The strong payroll report seems to have made investors certain of a cut of 25 basis points (0.25%) instead of 50 basis points. Prices have declined in the short term, but optimism remains for gold.

7 Okt

Catatan

Goldman Sachs also maintains its forecast that the Fed will reduce interest rates gradually, with each reduction of 25bps, to bring interest rates to 3.25-3.5% by June 2025. They emphasized that there is no clear reason for job growth to slow given that employment is high and the US economy is still growing strongly.

8 Okt

Catatan

Gold's "pause" last week was mainly due to the strong increase in the USD, benefiting from safe-haven capital flows after Iran launched more than 180 ballistic missiles toward Israel and the US jobs report exceeded expectations. on Friday, when 254,000 new jobs were created in September. Gold and the USD often have a negative correlation, meaning a stronger USD often puts downward pressure on gold prices and vice versa. However, despite the recent USD rally, gold still maintains its position.