BRICS, gold-backed currency, and challenge to the U.S. dollar
Diupdate
Even if you are not a gold bug, you have probably caught the news about central banks being on a gold-buying spree, with 2022 marking the record year for central bank purchases. This trend has not stopped in 2023, and many countries intensified the diversification of their reserves amid economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and high inflation in the United States. For some time now, we have considered this interest among central bankers as a very positive development for gold, making a case for higher prices in the long term. But more recently, we might have found another catalyst for the gold price. According to multiple media news outlets, the BRICS countries plan to introduce a new gold-backed currency in August 2023 at the organization’s summit in Johannesburg, South Africa (though Anil Sooklal, South Africa's ambassador to BRICS, denied these claims just a few days ago).
Despite contradictory narratives between media and the BRICS officials, the shift to a gold-backed currency would be a monumental event in the world of finance, given that there has not been any gold-backed currency since U.S. President Richard Nixon suspended the convertibility of the U.S. dollar to gold on 15th August 1971. This move, often referred to as the “Nixon Shock,” effectively marked the end of the Bretton Woods System, under which most of the world's currencies were tied to the dollar, which itself was tied to gold. Since then, the U.S. dollar has lost more than 96% of its purchasing power, and gold has risen from $40 to over $1,900. Should the BRICS countries proceed with the introduction of a new gold-backed currency, it would greatly elevate gold's role in the international monetary system (especially when considering that BRICS recently overtook the G7 in terms of global GDP and another dozen countries asked to join the group). Furthermore, such a move would likely trigger a new wave of currency wars between the West and East, critically challenging the U.S. dollar's dominance as the world's reserve currency.
Perhaps the erosion of purchasing power in fiat currencies would not be immediate with the introduction of this new gold-backed currency. Yet, history is laden with instances where the re-emergence of sound money has displaced the use of fiat currencies, particularly those lacking tangible backing. The transition can be a gradual process, slowly but steadily reshaping the landscape of global finance. Therefore, it's imperative now more than ever to stay attuned to the shifts and tremors within the financial world and to brace for an unpredictable future. The historical link between currency wars and actual conflicts is a stark reminder that these economic maneuvers carry weight far beyond monetary value.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the monthly chart of XAUUSD. The dashed white line indicates how much gold has grown in price since “Nixon’s shock.”
Technical analysis
Daily = Bullish (with signs of weakness)
Weekly = Neutral
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Despite contradictory narratives between media and the BRICS officials, the shift to a gold-backed currency would be a monumental event in the world of finance, given that there has not been any gold-backed currency since U.S. President Richard Nixon suspended the convertibility of the U.S. dollar to gold on 15th August 1971. This move, often referred to as the “Nixon Shock,” effectively marked the end of the Bretton Woods System, under which most of the world's currencies were tied to the dollar, which itself was tied to gold. Since then, the U.S. dollar has lost more than 96% of its purchasing power, and gold has risen from $40 to over $1,900. Should the BRICS countries proceed with the introduction of a new gold-backed currency, it would greatly elevate gold's role in the international monetary system (especially when considering that BRICS recently overtook the G7 in terms of global GDP and another dozen countries asked to join the group). Furthermore, such a move would likely trigger a new wave of currency wars between the West and East, critically challenging the U.S. dollar's dominance as the world's reserve currency.
Perhaps the erosion of purchasing power in fiat currencies would not be immediate with the introduction of this new gold-backed currency. Yet, history is laden with instances where the re-emergence of sound money has displaced the use of fiat currencies, particularly those lacking tangible backing. The transition can be a gradual process, slowly but steadily reshaping the landscape of global finance. Therefore, it's imperative now more than ever to stay attuned to the shifts and tremors within the financial world and to brace for an unpredictable future. The historical link between currency wars and actual conflicts is a stark reminder that these economic maneuvers carry weight far beyond monetary value.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the monthly chart of XAUUSD. The dashed white line indicates how much gold has grown in price since “Nixon’s shock.”
Technical analysis
Daily = Bullish (with signs of weakness)
Weekly = Neutral
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Catatan
Due to its choppiness, we remain relatively neutral on gold in the short term. As for the long-term, we stay bullish.
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