GOLD → Price prepares to fall amid DXY strengthening

4 Jun 2023

Gold by the end of Friday, amid the publication of ADP & NFP data sells off all the growth. The strong dollar is bad for the price of the metal. The close of the daily candlestick on Friday gives us a signal that the fall is likely to continue.

On the chart we see the formation of a global uptrend channel. A correction to the support area of the trend is forming within the bullish trend.



On Thursday the price forms a false break of the strong level 1981.566, which was formed in April 2022. The bulls could not break through the mentioned zone, though at the same time the local timeframe showed bullish signals. A large paranormal candlestick pattern is forming, with the close at the very low with no shadow from the bulls, which, based on the analysis, has no strength for resistance at this point.



In terms of technical analysis, Friday's close indicates that we will see a continuation of the price decline next week.
The price closes below the 1952 level, at 1941.100, opening the way for a decline to 1935.



Fundamental review

Monday, June 5, 2023
The Services PMI is published monthly by Markit Economics. The data is based on surveys of more than 400 private-sector service sector executives. The surveys cover transportation and communications, financial intermediaries, business and personal services, computing and IT, hotels and restaurants.

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI business report, a composite index calculated as an indicator of overall economic health for the non-manufacturing sector -- overall, analysts expect the index to improve.

Tuesday, June 6, 2023.
The Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) provides the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) with a near-term outlook for energy markets. Each month, STEO provides forecasts of consumption, supply, trade, and prices for major fuels through the end of the next calendar year. STEO also provides in-depth market analysis of crude oil, petroleum products and natural gas. While the focus is on U.S. energy markets, STEO also includes forecasts for several international liquid fuel markets.

Wednesday, June 7, 2023
Energy Information Administration (EIA) crude oil inventory data reflect the weekly change in the number of barrels of crude oil stored in U.S. company warehouses. The level of inventories affects the price of oil products, which may have an impact on inflation - the previous period gave an oprcital data. Analysts are not expecting major changes

Thursday, June 8, 2023.
Initial jobless claims are the number of people who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time last week. It is the earliest U.S. economic data, but its impact on the market varies from week to week - the previous period gave an oscillating reading. Analysts do not expect any strong changes

Overall, the fundamental backdrop for the coming week is relatively stable. We do not expect any dramatic announcements which will dramatically change the situation. But we should not forget about the unpredictable nuances.
From the point of view of technical analysis I expect the continuation of price decrease to the area 1935-1920. The support zone of the global raid can be tested in the medium term.

Regards R. Linda!