GOLD - BEARSIH STRUCTURE FORMING. WILL IT BREAK CHANNEL SUPPORT?
Symbol - XAUUSD
Gold has recently tested lower levels of rising channel and is now engaging with trend support, creating volatility in the market. The strengthening of the U.S. dollar is exerting downward pressure on the precious metal. Gold appears to be entering a corrective phase, with the market gradually shifting from a bullish to a bearish outlook due to increasing demand for the dollar, driven in part by concerns over potential trade wars arising from U.S. policies under former President Trump's administration.
The issue of tariffs imposed by the U.S. remains unresolved. Meanwhile, traders are closely monitoring U.S. economic data, including durable goods orders and consumer confidence, as well as the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, with its outcome expected to be released on Wednesday.
From a technical perspective, after the breakdown of the bullish market structure, the price is currently testing the support of the established channel. It is unlikely that this support level will be breached on the first attempt, and the price may experience a corrective move towards 2745 or potentially the imbalance zone, such as the 2750-2760 range, before resuming its downward trajectory due to selling pressure.
Key resistance levels: 2745, 2751, 2760
Key support levels: 2735, 2718
If the price fails to breach the 2745 resistance level and retreats to 2735, this could signal a potential break of trend support. In that scenario, an impulsive move towards 2718 may materialize. However, if the 2745 resistance level is overcome, gold could test the 2750-2760 range before continuing its downward movement which is more likely.
Gold has recently tested lower levels of rising channel and is now engaging with trend support, creating volatility in the market. The strengthening of the U.S. dollar is exerting downward pressure on the precious metal. Gold appears to be entering a corrective phase, with the market gradually shifting from a bullish to a bearish outlook due to increasing demand for the dollar, driven in part by concerns over potential trade wars arising from U.S. policies under former President Trump's administration.
The issue of tariffs imposed by the U.S. remains unresolved. Meanwhile, traders are closely monitoring U.S. economic data, including durable goods orders and consumer confidence, as well as the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, with its outcome expected to be released on Wednesday.
From a technical perspective, after the breakdown of the bullish market structure, the price is currently testing the support of the established channel. It is unlikely that this support level will be breached on the first attempt, and the price may experience a corrective move towards 2745 or potentially the imbalance zone, such as the 2750-2760 range, before resuming its downward trajectory due to selling pressure.
Key resistance levels: 2745, 2751, 2760
Key support levels: 2735, 2718
If the price fails to breach the 2745 resistance level and retreats to 2735, this could signal a potential break of trend support. In that scenario, an impulsive move towards 2718 may materialize. However, if the 2745 resistance level is overcome, gold could test the 2750-2760 range before continuing its downward movement which is more likely.
Trade aktif
Short position opened at 2760
Holding with SL 2770
Trading ditutup: stop tercapai
SL reached, Short position closed at 2770Catatan
Gold's performance, in the context of recent news, has been influenced by a variety of factors. The U.S. dollar failed to benefit from the current situation, which, in turn, has generally supported the price of gold. The target of an all time high (ATH) remains relevant. Market attention is now focused on the upcoming U.S. GDP data for Q4. A potential slowdown in economic growth could bolster demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, particularly in light of possible trade tariffs from the Trump administration and mixed reports from major technology companies. While the Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate, it adopted a more hawkish tone, temporarily putting downward pressure on gold. However, the weak dollar, coupled with growing concerns about economic risks, facilitated a partial recovery in the metal's price.
From a technical standpoint, a rebound is forming from the support of the ascending channel, with the price overcoming resistance levels as it moves forward.
Resistance levels: 2790
Support levels: 2771, 2766
Based on current technical analysis, we expect price growth towards the 2790 level from these support zones. However, given the way the price is approaching the historical high, there is a possibility of a minor correction at 2790. Following this correction, the market may either show readiness to advance further or enter a more substantial corrective phase.
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