XAU/USD Weekly Analysis
XAU/USD Weekly Analysis with support and resistance levels tailored between $2,800 and $3,000:
XAU/USD Weekly Analysis: March 3–7, 2025
🔹 Overview:
Gold (XAU/USD) has entered a critical consolidation phase, trading between $2,800 and $3,000. The market remains sensitive to macroeconomic developments, including U.S. jobs data, Fed commentary, and geopolitical events.
🔹 Key Support Levels:
Immediate Support:
$2,835–$2,850: Critical support zone, aligned with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally.
$2,800: Psychological support and a key structural level, reinforced by the 50-day SMA.
Major Support (Downside Breach Scenario):
$2,765–$2,780: Long-term trendline support from the 2024 lows.
$2,735: Key swing low; a break below here could signal a deeper bearish trend.
🔹 Key Resistance Levels:
Immediate Resistance:
$2,900–$2,920: Key consolidation range high and near-term target for bullish momentum.
$2,950: Previous week’s high and a critical barrier to further gains.
Major Resistance (Upside Breakout Scenario):
$2,975–$3,000: Psychological resistance and the upper bound of the bullish channel.
$3,075: Fibonacci 127.2% extension and a potential breakout target.
🔹 Technical Scenario Breakdown:
Bullish Case (Breakout):
Trigger: Fed dovishness or USD weakness.
Action: Break above $2,950 confirms bullish momentum.
Targets: $2,975 (psychological level), then $3,075 (breakout extension).
Bearish Case (Reversal):
Trigger: Strong USD or risk-on sentiment.
Action: Breakdown below $2,835 signals bearish shift.
Targets: $2,800 (key support), then $2,765–$2,735 (trendline and swing low).
Neutral/Range-Bound:
Range: $2,835–$2,950.
Action: Fade extremes (buy dips near $2,835, sell rallies near $2,950).
🔹 Price Action Drivers During the Week:
U.S. Jobs Data (March 7):
Weak NFP (<150k jobs) → USD sell-off → Gold rallies toward $2,950–$3,000.
Strong NFP (>250k jobs) → USD strength → Gold tests $2,835–$2,800.
Fed Commentary (March 5):
Hawkish tone → Gold pressured below $2,835.
Dovish tone → Rally toward $2,950+.
Geopolitical Surprises:
Escalations → Safe-haven surge → Gold breaches $2,975–$3,000.
De-escalations → Profit-taking → Drop to $2,800.
🔹 Technical Tools to Monitor:
RSI (14-day): Overbought above 70 indicates pullback risk; oversold below 30 signals potential rebound.
MACD: Bullish crossover above the zero line strengthens upward bias.
Volume: Confirm breakouts above $2,950 with rising volume.
📈 Summary:
Support: $2,835–$2,850 (critical), $2,800 (structural), $2,765–$2,735 (trendline).
Resistance: $2,900–$2,920 (immediate), $2,950 (key breakout), $2,975–$3,000 (psychological).
Catalysts: U.S. data, Fed commentary, and geopolitical factors remain key drivers.
XAU/USD Weekly Analysis: March 3–7, 2025
🔹 Overview:
Gold (XAU/USD) has entered a critical consolidation phase, trading between $2,800 and $3,000. The market remains sensitive to macroeconomic developments, including U.S. jobs data, Fed commentary, and geopolitical events.
🔹 Key Support Levels:
Immediate Support:
$2,835–$2,850: Critical support zone, aligned with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally.
$2,800: Psychological support and a key structural level, reinforced by the 50-day SMA.
Major Support (Downside Breach Scenario):
$2,765–$2,780: Long-term trendline support from the 2024 lows.
$2,735: Key swing low; a break below here could signal a deeper bearish trend.
🔹 Key Resistance Levels:
Immediate Resistance:
$2,900–$2,920: Key consolidation range high and near-term target for bullish momentum.
$2,950: Previous week’s high and a critical barrier to further gains.
Major Resistance (Upside Breakout Scenario):
$2,975–$3,000: Psychological resistance and the upper bound of the bullish channel.
$3,075: Fibonacci 127.2% extension and a potential breakout target.
🔹 Technical Scenario Breakdown:
Bullish Case (Breakout):
Trigger: Fed dovishness or USD weakness.
Action: Break above $2,950 confirms bullish momentum.
Targets: $2,975 (psychological level), then $3,075 (breakout extension).
Bearish Case (Reversal):
Trigger: Strong USD or risk-on sentiment.
Action: Breakdown below $2,835 signals bearish shift.
Targets: $2,800 (key support), then $2,765–$2,735 (trendline and swing low).
Neutral/Range-Bound:
Range: $2,835–$2,950.
Action: Fade extremes (buy dips near $2,835, sell rallies near $2,950).
🔹 Price Action Drivers During the Week:
U.S. Jobs Data (March 7):
Weak NFP (<150k jobs) → USD sell-off → Gold rallies toward $2,950–$3,000.
Strong NFP (>250k jobs) → USD strength → Gold tests $2,835–$2,800.
Fed Commentary (March 5):
Hawkish tone → Gold pressured below $2,835.
Dovish tone → Rally toward $2,950+.
Geopolitical Surprises:
Escalations → Safe-haven surge → Gold breaches $2,975–$3,000.
De-escalations → Profit-taking → Drop to $2,800.
🔹 Technical Tools to Monitor:
RSI (14-day): Overbought above 70 indicates pullback risk; oversold below 30 signals potential rebound.
MACD: Bullish crossover above the zero line strengthens upward bias.
Volume: Confirm breakouts above $2,950 with rising volume.
📈 Summary:
Support: $2,835–$2,850 (critical), $2,800 (structural), $2,765–$2,735 (trendline).
Resistance: $2,900–$2,920 (immediate), $2,950 (key breakout), $2,975–$3,000 (psychological).
Catalysts: U.S. data, Fed commentary, and geopolitical factors remain key drivers.
Catatan
Catatan
as we predicted it reached major pivot zone of 2972Catatan
we said this week its a buy, THEN ITS A BUYTrading ditutup: target tercapai
just made big profit
Publikasi terkait
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan bukan merupakan saran keuangan, investasi, perdagangan, atau rekomendasi lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Persyaratan Penggunaan.
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan bukan merupakan saran keuangan, investasi, perdagangan, atau rekomendasi lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Persyaratan Penggunaan.