GOLD → Lots of assumptions. False breakout or breakdown?

3 Sep 2023

XAUUSD on D1 is forming the preconditions for further growth, but there is no such thing on H1. NFP played no role for gold while the dollar is strengthening strongly

There are not many key news this week, but they all come out on Wednesday and are all worth paying attention to as the data indicator will give us a medium-term view on pricing:

• 1) SP Global US Services PMI
  
• 2) ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
  
• 3) ISM Non-Manufatiruong Prices
  

Monday is a holiday in the US, so we do not expect high volatility.
On the hourly timeframe there was a breakout of the resistance of the ascending channel earlier, everyone expected further growth, I told you that there is a chance of a false breakout. On Friday, after the publication of NFP and unemployment the market forms a shakeout in both directions, brings the price back to the boundaries of the ascending channel (false breakout) and in addition, the closing price remains in place of the opening price of the Friday session. The market is weak.
BUT! The dollar index DXY is testing strong resistance around 104.5, if the area is broken, the price will head towards 105.5, and this will negatively affect the formation of the gold price.



In this case, if the dollar starts its active growth, then on D1 gold will make a false breakdown of the bearish price channel, which will give a strong bearish signal and a huge potential for the price to fall as much as 6% and almost 1100 points.
It is important for us to wait for confirmation of the market action. The dollar index may fail to pass the mentioned mark and form a flat correction, which is another scenario and gold may get a chance to rise to 2000-2100 in this case

Regards R. Linda!