Short-Term Pullback or Bullish Continuation?

1. Top-Down Bias

Weekly (Macro)
• Trend: Long-term bullish (higher highs, higher lows).
• Support Zone: ~2,720–2,770 (overlaps with 20/50 SMAs and weekly order blocks).
• Resistance: ~2,956 (recent swing high); next fib extension near 3,029.
• Momentum: RSI ~64 (still above 50), MACD positive, price well above Ichimoku Cloud.

Bias: Strongly bullish unless price loses major weekly support.

Daily (Intermediate)
• Trend: Still bullish overall, but short‐term momentum has turned negative (MACD bearish cross, RSI near 50).
• Key Supports: 2,820–2,770 (Fibonacci 0.382–0.50 plus the 50 SMA).
• Resistance: Recent high near 2,954–2,956; minor supply around 2,900.
• Ichimoku: Price above daily Cloud; Kijun/Tenkan below current price (~2,843 / ~2,894).

Bias: Bullish (structurally), but facing a short-term correction.

4H (Short-Term)
• Trend: Downtrend on the 4H—lower highs/lower lows (bearish break of structure).
• Key SMAs: Price below the 10, 50, 100, and 200 SMAs.
• Ichimoku: Price below Cloud, strong short‐term bearish momentum.
• Oversold Indicators: RSI ~21, Stochastics near ~10, but ADX ~46 indicates a powerful short‐term move.

Bias: Short‐term bearish.

2H (Intraday)
• Trend: Clearly bearish (consecutive lower highs/lower lows).
• Key Levels: Overhead supply ~2,880–2,900. Possible support ~2,820–2,800.
• Oversold: RSI ~24, Stochastics ~20, but momentum remains negative.
• Ichimoku: Price below Cloud, strong immediate downside pressure.

Bias: Bearish intraday.

Overall Synthesis
• Longer Term (Weekly/Daily): Bullish structure remains intact.
• Shorter Term (4H/2H): Strong corrective wave to the downside. Oversold readings suggest a potential bounce soon, but no confirmation of a bottom yet.

2. Key Levels & Confluences
1. Major Supports (Likely Demand Zones)
• 2,820–2,800: Daily fib confluence (around 0.382–0.50), lower Bollinger band, 4H oversold zone.
• 2,770–2,760: 50% fib retracement (from 2,586 low to 2,954 high), 50 SMA on daily, strong daily/weekly order block.
• 2,720–2,700: Deeper weekly zone and next cluster of SMAs/Ichimoku lines.
2. Major Resistances (Likely Supply Zones)
• 2,880–2,900: Broken support turned resistance on 4H/2H; possible retest area.
• 2,954–2,956: Recent daily swing high.
• 3,029: Weekly fib extension (2.618), next major upside target if bullish trend resumes.
3. Indicator Confluences
• RSI: Weekly ~64 (bullish); Daily ~48–50 (near neutral); 4H/2H deeply oversold ~20–25.
• MACD: Bullish on weekly, short‐term bearish on daily and lower timeframes.
• Ichimoku: Price above Cloud on weekly/daily, below Cloud on 4H/2H—mixed signals across timeframes.

3. Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation / Resumption

Despite short‐term selling pressure, the macro structure is still bullish. This scenario focuses on a potential bullish bounce or full resumption of the uptrend.

Narrative & Logic
• Weekly/Daily remain in an uptrend.
• Short-Term oversold conditions (4H/2H RSI <30, Stoch <20) could spark a relief bounce.
• Key Catalyst: A successful defense of ~2,770–2,820 could trigger a move back toward 2,900+.

3.1 Aggressive (High‐Risk) Bullish Approach
1. Entry Conditions
• Look for a 2H/4H bullish candlestick pattern (engulfing, pin bar) near 2,820–2,800 or even slightly above if price shows any sign of intraday reversal.
• Minimal confirmation—may act on a small bullish divergence on 1H/2H RSI or a quick bounce from the lower Bollinger Band.
2. Stop‐Loss Placement
• Tight stop just below the immediate swing low (e.g., if price bounces at 2,820, place stops around 2,795–2,790).
• This keeps risk tight but raises the chance of being stopped out if volatility spikes further.
3. Pros/Cons
• Pros: Potentially the best risk‐to‐reward if price does indeed bottom here.
• Cons: High chance of whipsaw if the short‐term downtrend persists. Limited confirmation means higher false‐break risk.
4. Targets & Profit Objectives
• T1: ~2,880–2,900 (where overhead supply sits).
• T2: ~2,954–2,960 (prior swing high).
• Consider partial TP at T1, then move stop to break‐even to ride T2.
5. Invalidation
• A sustained 4H close below ~2,770–2,760 or a decisive break of daily structure. That would likely signal deeper downside.

3.2 Moderate‐Risk Bullish Approach
1. Entry Conditions
• Wait for a 4H candle close back above a short‐term pivot (e.g., reclaiming 2,850 or the 4H Tenkan/Kijun).
• Look for MACD crossover back to bullish on 4H or RSI crossing above 40–50 from oversold territory.
2. Stop‐Loss Placement
• Place stops below the newly formed higher low on the 4H. For example, if price confirms support around 2,820 and bounces, set stops around 2,780–2,790.
3. Pros/Cons
• Pros: Reduced risk of immediate fakeouts; you’re entering on at least partial confirmation.
• Cons: You may miss the absolute bottom if price bounces sharply from an oversold condition.
4. Targets & Profit Objectives
• T1: ~2,880–2,900
• T2: Retest of ~2,954–2,960
• Optionally, hold a runner for a break of 2,960 up to ~3,029.
5. Invalidation
• A daily close below 2,770 would severely weaken the bullish thesis.
• A new 4H lower low after you’ve entered also invalidates the short‐term structure.

3.3 Conservative (Low‐Risk) Bullish Approach
1. Entry Conditions
• Require a daily close above a significant pivot (e.g., back above 2,880–2,900) or a re‐entry into the daily Ichimoku Tenkan (~2,894).
• Look for multiple indicator confirmations: RSI > 50 on 4H and daily, MACD turning positive on daily, and price reclaiming or closing inside the daily Bollinger mid‐band (~2,895).
2. Stop‐Loss Placement
• Place stops below the higher‐timeframe support, e.g., below 2,770 (the 50% fib, 50 SMA).
• This is wider but offers more safety from intraday noise.
3. Pros/Cons
• Pros: Strong probability of riding a genuine trend resumption. Fewer whipsaws.
• Cons: May enter substantially higher, reducing initial R:R.
4. Targets & Profit Objectives
• T1: ~2,956 (recent high).
• T2: ~3,029 (next weekly fib extension).
• Scale out partially at T1, then trail stops under daily pivots if the uptrend extends.
5. Invalidation
• A break back below the daily pivot or a daily candle closing under 2,770/2,760 would invalidate the conservative bullish entry.

4. Scenario 2: Bearish Reversal / Deeper Correction

This scenario addresses the possibility that short‐term momentum continues to drag price lower, potentially challenging the daily/weekly bullish structure if supports fail.

Narrative & Logic
• 4H/2H are in confirmed downtrends, indicating immediate selling pressure.
• Daily MACD is negative; RSI near 50 but drifting lower.
• If key supports (2,820–2,770) give way, we could see a deeper push toward 2,720 or 2,700.

4.1 Aggressive (High‐Risk) Bearish Approach
1. Entry Conditions
• Short on minor bounces into 2H/4H resistance (e.g., retest of 2,860–2,880).
• Minimal confirmation needed: perhaps a 2H bearish engulfing or rejection at a small pivot.
2. Stop‐Loss Placement
• Tight stop above the local swing high or the supply zone—e.g., above 2,900.
• This keeps risk contained but is vulnerable to intraday spikes.
3. Pros/Cons
• Pros: If the market continues rapidly downward, risk‐reward can be very favorable.
• Cons: High chance of false breakdown or sharp bounce from oversold levels.
4. Targets & Profit Objectives
• T1: ~2,820 (recent intraday support).
• T2: ~2,770–2,760 (major daily fib & SMA).
• If momentum is strong, a final target near 2,720 is possible.
5. Invalidation
• A 4H close back above 2,900 or a bullish crossover on 4H MACD would undermine the immediate bearish setup.

4.2 Moderate‐Risk Bearish Approach
1. Entry Conditions
• Wait for a 4H close below a key support (e.g., below 2,820) or a retest/failure of 2,850–2,860 after it breaks down.
• RSI on 4H remains < 40, confirming ongoing negative momentum.
2. Stop‐Loss Placement
• Place stops slightly above the retest zone (e.g., if shorting a breakdown under 2,820, stops might be ~2,865–2,870).
• Allows for normal volatility but not a full reversal.
3. Pros/Cons
• Pros: Reduces the chance of shorting the absolute low if a quick bounce occurs. You wait for partial confirmation.
• Cons: Could miss sudden plunges if price slices straight down.
4. Targets & Profit Objectives
• T1: 2,780–2,770 zone (big daily fib), partial take‐profit recommended.
• T2: 2,720–2,700 region if the bearish wave intensifies.
5. Invalidation
• A 4H candle that closes significantly back above 2,850–2,860 after you enter suggests a trap, invalidating the short setup.

4.3 Conservative (Low‐Risk) Bearish Approach
1. Entry Conditions
• Demand a daily close below ~2,770 or a decisive break of major daily structure.
• Wait for daily MACD to firmly stay negative and RSI < 50 on the daily chart (confirming a deeper trend shift, not just an intraday flush).
2. Stop‐Loss Placement
• Above the last daily swing high or above a retested breakdown level. For instance, if the daily closes below 2,770, stops could be placed above 2,820–2,830.
3. Pros/Cons
• Pros: Higher probability that the deeper correction is genuinely underway, aligning with bigger timeframe structure changes.
• Cons: You enter later, missing the initial drop. The move might have partially played out before your entry triggers.
4. Targets & Profit Objectives
• T1: ~2,720 (weekly support zone).
• T2: ~2,700 or lower, depending on momentum.
• Manage the position by trailing stops if price continues to trend downward.
5. Invalidation
• A bullish reversal that reclaims 2,770 or forms a strong daily bullish engulfing candle above that level would negate the conservative bearish thesis.

5. Risk Management & Position Sizing
1. Volatility Awareness (ATR)
• Weekly ATR ~40, Daily ATR ~40, 4H ATR ~17, 2H ATR ~11–12.
• High ATR suggests you may need wider stops or smaller position sizes to accommodate larger swings.
2. R:R Ratios
• Aim for at least 1:2 or better.
• Adjust trade size so that maximum potential loss is within your risk tolerance (1–2% of account equity).
3. Timeframe Alignment
• Larger positions can be taken if Weekly and Daily confirm the same directional bias.
• If only 4H/2H are guiding the trade and they conflict with the bigger timeframe, consider reduced size or shorter‐term scalps.
4. Partial Profit Strategies
• Take partial profits at T1, then move stop to break-even or a small profit buffer.
• Let a portion of the trade run to T2 if momentum continues in your favor.

6. Extra Notes / Contradictions
1. Contradictory Signals
• Weekly & Daily remain bullish, but 4H/2H are bearish. Short‐term shorts can be taken intraday, but keep the bigger bullish picture in mind.
• If you are taking a counter‐trend short (relative to the weekly), remain flexible to a sharp rebound.
2. Events & News Catalysts
• Gold is sensitive to economic data (inflation, interest rate announcements, jobs data), geopolitical tensions, and USD movements. A sudden shift in sentiment can override technicals.
3. Ranging vs. Trending Conditions
• If weekly is bullish but price consolidates sideways on the daily/4H, you might opt for range plays between key support (2,820–2,770) and resistance (2,880–2,900) until a breakout.
• Always confirm a breakout on a 4H or daily close for higher reliability.

7. Final Summary
• Top‐Down Bias: Long‐term (Weekly/Daily) bull trend intact; short‐term (4H/2H) in a bearish corrective phase.
• Key Levels:
• Support: 2,820–2,800, 2,770, 2,720–2,700
• Resistance: 2,880–2,900, 2,954–2,956, 3,029
• Scenarios:
1. Bullish Continuation
• Aggressive, Moderate, and Conservative entries revolve around buying dips or breakouts above short‐term pivots.
• Watch for key reclaims of 2,880–2,900 or a confirmed bounce off ~2,770.
2. Bearish Correction
• Aggressive, Moderate, and Conservative approaches to short further downside.
• Focus on breakdowns below 2,820, or deeper breaks below 2,770 for a more confirmed daily down move.
• Risk Management:
• Use ATR to gauge volatility and set stops accordingly.
• Strive for at least 1:2 R:R, scale out at T1, trail stops for a portion.
• Keep position sizes in line with your risk tolerance.
• Edge Cases:
• A sudden macro event can abruptly reverse or accelerate the move.
• If shorting intraday (against weekly bull structure), remain cautious around major support bounces.

Final Word:
• The primary uptrend is intact on higher timeframes, but near‐term momentum is bearish. Shorting is plausible on the lower timeframes until key supports are tested or reclaimed. To align with the macro bull trend, watch for a robust bounce at or near 2,770–2,820. Always manage your risk carefully, using stops that accommodate current volatility, and be prepared to adapt if the market rapidly reverses.