When will gold stop falling?

20 jam yang lalu

The trend of the gold market next week may continue to maintain a bearish trend. The market has already shown a series of technical and fundamental signals, suggesting that gold may continue to face downward pressure in the coming period. Combining the current technical form and market sentiment of gold, below we will conduct a detailed analysis of the trend of gold next week from three perspectives: technical, market sentiment and fundamentals.
Technical analysis
Daily chart performance:
Judging from the daily chart, the current trend of gold is obviously in a downward trend. In recent weeks, the price of gold has reversed and declined from its highs, breaking the previous upward channel and forming an obvious downward trend. In particular, last week's negative closing for six consecutive trading days formed a significant short arrangement, indicating that the market's short power is strong. In addition, although the price of gold has seen some fluctuations recently, the volume of short positions has gradually shrunk, indicating that although the market is still in a short trend, the selling momentum has slowed down and the short market may be entering a period of adjustment.
4-hour line and 1-hour line patterns:
On the 4-hour chart, gold shows a typical wave downward trend. After rebounding, the price still cannot break through the key resistance level in the early stage, so the overall trend is still biased downward. The current upper line of $2,151 has formed strong pressure. If the price cannot effectively break through this level, gold's downward trend may continue. Below, the low of $2,537 becomes a key support level. If gold prices break below this support, the market could accelerate its move lower to retest previous lows.
The 1-hour line shows a more detailed trend. Gold has recently formed an M-head pattern, with a strong resistance area forming near the top of $2,576. A breakdown of this position may accelerate gold's decline. At present, the neckline support of $2,560 is crucial. If this position is broken, it means that gold will fall further and test the previous low.
Morphological structure analysis:
Overall, the trend of gold is in a short structure, and the market still has no obvious reversal signal after the continued decline. The current restorative rebound is still weak, and after each rebound repair, the price ushered in a deeper correction, which shows the lack of bullish power in the market.
If the current restorative rebound fails to break through $2,576 and falls further, gold may continue to weaken and may even enter a deeper decline. If gold can break through $2,576 and break through the upper resistance of $2,596, then the market will likely re-evaluate the trend of gold, and there may be a certain rebound in the short term.
Fundamental factor analysis
In addition to technical aspects, changes in fundamentals may also have an important impact on gold prices. Recently, U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions are the two key factors affecting gold trends.
Fed policy:
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy continues to maintain a hawkish stance. Although the market is generally expected to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes, Fed officials still emphasized their determination to combat high inflation in recent speeches. If the Federal Reserve continues to maintain a high interest rate environment, the dollar may strengthen further and gold prices may remain under pressure. Rising interest rates are typically a negative for gold because it becomes more expensive to hold, while a stronger U.S. dollar makes gold less attractive to holders of other currencies.
U.S. economic data:
At the same time, the performance of the U.S. economy is also an important influencing factor. The performance of U.S. economic indicators such as inflation data, employment data, and GDP growth will affect the Fed's next decision. If economic data shows that inflationary pressures are still high, the Federal Reserve may continue to raise interest rates, which will further suppress gold. If the U.S. economy shows signs of slowing down and the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates decrease, gold may experience certain safe-haven demand and may experience a rebound in the short term.
Summarize
Based on comprehensive technical and fundamental analysis, the trend of gold next week will most likely maintain a short trend. In the short term, gold is likely to continue to face downward pressure, with key support levels near $2,537 and $2,560. If these support levels are effectively broken down, gold may test lower prices and may even challenge previous lows. However, if gold can break above the $2,576 and $2,596 resistances above, then the market may reassess gold's trend and a short-term rebound may occur.