XAU.USD hit targets, ready to Bounce: Gold early in week Outlook

This is an update to my last Analysis mapping "The Top" (click).

Gold has been keeping perfect rhythm with its Fibs.
We are now at the likely end points of several Waves.
We should see a decent bounce right now or very soon.

This is an early-in-week plot to get a feel for sentiment.
What happens on Monday will be telling for next moves.
I will post an update or new Idea as markets get going.

1471-72 should be achieved quickly, or it is very weak.
1480-81 would be an Average bounce for a downtrend.
1492-03 is maximum expected unless Risk Off arises.

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Previous Gold Analysis (click):
[b]Exact Map of Top
$1516 Top Call
$1498 top call
$1650 then $2100?<= Still Plausible
$1480 short TP
$1515 top call<= Awesome Short
$1555 top call<= Just in Time
$1406 to $1525<= Caught the Jump
$1386 bounce
$1439 top call<= To the Penny
$1332 bounce
$1270 bounce<= To the Penny
$1280 break
$1380 call <=11 mos ago

Of course, I have had total FAILS on some ideas too, not going to pretend.
But all of my plots show PRECISE entries, TIGHT stops, and EXACT targets.
Precision is the way of the Fib. Almost every turn happens at a Fib Line.

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Komentar:

Bulls need to bounce this right here and right now

They have a think sliver of support in the Red Fib, and it is the last support before a considerable fall because the Green zone immediately below has been damaged and is unlikely to hold again.

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Komentar:

Uh oh, bulls unable to hold that 4.236

Lets see if the fibs below support it, but I think it will fall further.

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Komentar:

Rejected from the first resistance, pushed straight down to the support below

decent bounce so far, but not quite as strong as it should be.
This could consolidate between the two zones for a while and then proceed upwards.
But I am not seeing bulls jumping in, just shorts taking profit so far....

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Komentar:

Currently bubbling up against the support-turned-resistance

Zoomed in we see the red 5.236 is at the center of this zone

The red fib series has been the controlling factor in this drop.

Zoomed in even more (1min) and adding a fib to today's bounce

The impulse was relatively strong (probably shorts taking profit).
The resulting Ripple appears pretty clean, with the 2.618 being clearly respected, and the 2.236 under consideration for support.
We are just started Asian session. Watching for breakout in either direction from Band 2.

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Komentar:

Interesting confinement within Band 5 of the Red fib of the drop

Such precise confinement says this fib is still the primary wave.
That means the overall movement is still aimed downwards, despite the bounce (blue fib in last update pic above).

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Komentar:

Uh oh, broke downwards with Force

This is a bad sign for bulls, such a strong break during Asian session (2 hours before London Open)

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Komentar:

Zooming back out to the bigger picture.
Loss of 1448/50 would mean 1423/24 next stop

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Komentar:

Bulls may have pulled off a Double Bottom at the 1448/50 zone

Key resistance to pass remains the red 5.236 at 1457.07.
Break above should get more bulls on board.....

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Komentar:

Looks like one last attempt to hold 1450

BUT notice it is 1450.27 not .00, why?
Because the fib said so!

Komentar:

Wow, so a bear trap / stop hunt below support and then a bounce

Just pinged the red 4.236, watching closely.
I am suspicious of this bounce, due fundamentals that have changed a bit today:
New Zealand was widely expected to cut their interest rate today, Tuesday.
BUT they did NOT cut. That "should" be a negative for gold prices because:
the NZD now competes for capital, with a higher interest rate than expected a couple of hours ago. (or at least, not as low of a rate as expected).
Thus the additional "yield" of that currency should attract some capital that was parked in Gold.
But lets see, gotta trade what one sees, not what one thinks.
So I will study this bounce in some detail, and see what UK session does today.

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Komentar:

Quick look at the bounce, 3min chart, possible Impulse found

Waiting to see reaction at the 2.618.
the 2.618 is a key fib. So if no reaction there, then I have the impulse wrong.
But if it reacts there, it will confirm this fib and allow me to make some projections.

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Komentar:

Double Ping on the red 4.236 and down

Lets see if this pullback develops a fib rhythm or not, will be watching.

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Komentar:

This bonce looks like the start of a "wave 5" aimed at $1650, per this higher tf plot I posted several weeks ago:

ALWAYS a good sign when a bounce/reject happens WHERE it was expected.

I will post an updated version of the above Idea after I get a feel for this bounce.

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