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GOLD - Hundred bucks (Trading the daily cycle decline)

Diupdate

After testing the 2021.06.01 pivot at 1916 gold printed daily swing high today.

The daily cycle peaked on day 50. More than enough , it was an extremely long daily cycle. No question we are moving into the daily cycle low where I want to be long again to test the all time highs.

What to expect during this decline?

First of all I want to see the 4 day RSI to get oversold. Right now we haven't seen RSI to get oversold since the end of October.

Using the Fibonacci retracement the minimum target is the 23,6% and maybe the 50%.

Using the moving the averages price will break below the 10 EMA (red) , test the 50SMA (blue) and maybe tag the 200 EMA (purple).

If the regression event is enough violent the lower Bollinger band will be tagged and price might break through on the last day.

The target is : 1810$ and the trade will last for 5-7 days.

Catatan

Typical DCL type move today.
Green daily candle to pull in bulls and dump by the end of day…

Catatan

We are going to close near the daily low.

Catatan

Silver is leading. 23 pulling like a magnet.

Catatan

Xauxag trending higher. Silver might break down the range before turning up
Again.

Catatan

It seems the daily cycle top came 2 days later than I expected :on last Friday.

Catatan

If there is no continuation of the rally after Thursday's green candle, then it was just a false breakout

Catatan

Xauxag is breaking higher and silver is breaking down:

Catatan

The starting dollar rally will accelerate the metal decline

Catatan

Notice the divergemce between the price and RSI

Catatan

We all knew that at some point the dollar will start to rally : after all we are having an FOMC meeting next week.

Catatan

I have a feeling we are going to have a key reversal today . for this We need to close below Yesterday’s low what was 1911…

Catatan

First time this year we are tagging the 200 SMA.

Catatan

First lower low on the hourly this year.

Catatan

100 SMA backtest

Catatan

We have an important daily data today which will affect gold and dollar prices. the US core PCE index was at 4.7% in November and is expected to decline to 4.4% in December. I think the data will be 4.2-4.3% what clearly shows that the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary policy has effectively decreased inflation.

Catatan

100 EMA and 100 SMA backtested again.

Catatan

Test of the 200SMA on the hourly.
We are going to break it sooner or later

Catatan

The rising wedge broke down yesterday finally. Traders who are long for a while are taking profit ahead of the FOMC meeting.

Catatan

Crazy markets. Holding the short position:

I’ve seen many times in the past how the gold market and currency markets are reversing the next day after the FOMC meeting. Wait for dust to settle down.

Catatan

Day 63. One of the longest daily cycle I have ever seen in gold. I would definetely not long here. You know the rule : stairstep up elevator down. Or freefall.

Catatan

Wow. What a reversal. We just gave back all of yesterday’s gains in 1 hour.

Catatan

4 hours left from today’s trading, if there is no dramatic change by the close we are printing a key reversal:
New high today and a close below yesterday’s low.

chartwatchers

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