🔥Gold rose strongly during the US trading session on Friday. The market is concerned about whether gold has reversed? And whether to go long next week? From the current technical trend, the following is a specific analysis:
âś…Gold is currently in the third month of adjustment, with less than 7 trading days left this month, and accompanied by the Christmas holiday. From the perspective of the adjustment rhythm of the technical trend, gold can only confirm the end of the medium- and long-term adjustment if it falls below the low of 2536. However, from the current decline strength and short-term operation rhythm, it is difficult to fall below 2536.
âś…The 4-hour moving average of gold is still in a short position arrangement state with a dead cross downward, and does not have the conditions for a unilateral reversal. The gold short position stopped at the 2583 line this time, and rebounded to around 2632 on Friday night. This position is the key point for the top and bottom conversion before the interest rate decision. The trend next week will revolve around 2632:
đź”°If it breaks through 2632, it will mean the end of the short-term decline, and continue to rebound to test the 2650-2660 area, and form a high-level sideways consolidation at the weekly level. The longer the sideways time, the smaller the probability of a subsequent decline.
đź”°If the suppression of 2632 is effective, the bearish trend since the decline of 2726 will continue, and the 2580-2630 area will be maintained to bottom out, and it may fall below 2536 again to complete the medium- and long-term adjustment.
âś…If the weekend news stimulates the stabilization and rise on Monday, and the moving average turns upward, you can consider buying on dips. If the shock continues, you can sell high and buy low in the 2635-2590 range.
âś…The adjustment rhythm of gold in this round is similar to that around US$2,300, which may form a shock bottoming process and then start a new round of upward trend. The bull market structure will not change. From a fundamental point of view, it is still expected to set a new high next year. The key is to pay close attention to the adjustment rhythm and changes in support levels to determine the medium- and long-term buying opportunities. Later, I will update the strategy in real time according to the specific market performance and news changes.
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