GOLD pays attention to the main focus of the market

3 Jul

XAUUSD remained generally stable as markets received information from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and continued to look to US jobs data later this week for further signals on the state of the US economy.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released on Tuesday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) found that there were 8.14 million job openings on January 1. Last work of May.
This is a significant increase compared to April's 7.9 million (adjusted to 8.05 million) and exceeds the market forecast of 7.9 million.

Key points from Powell's speech included his mention that wage growth is falling back to more sustainable levels, a sign that the labor market is cooling.
Additionally, he added that inflation could return to 2% by the end of next year or the year after that, suggesting inflation will be lower than expected. However, he reiterated that he hopes to see more progress before being confident enough to start cutting interest rates.
"Services inflation has generally stabilized and wage growth is returning to more sustainable levels," he said. "Wage growth remains above equilibrium and the labor market is cooling. Inflation has will probably return at the end of next year or early next year to 2%.

The focus now turns to Friday's nonfarm payrolls data, which will be crucial in assessing whether the US labor market remains strong amid the highest interest rates in decades. century or not.
However, data due today (Wednesday) will also have an impact on the markets, including the minutes of the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), as well as the purchasing managers index. services (PMI) from S&P Global and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
Gold is still trading quite stable around the EMA21 moving average, and the market still needs a fundamental impact large enough to break the current situation and give a clear trend cycle.

Technically, although gold is currently above EMA21, its ability to increase in price is limited by the upper edge of the price channel and the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. Gold will have enough conditions to increase technically if it breaks the price channel and stays above the 0.236% Fibonacci level, then the target level will be aimed at 2,364USD in the short term.

On the other hand, once gold continues to be sold below EMA21 and below the technical point of 2,324 USD, it will tend to continue to decrease with a target level of 2,305 - 2,300 USD in the short term.
The relative strength index is completely flat, showing hesitation and the market has not found a specific trend.

During the day, the technical outlook of gold price is showing that the main trend is sideways accumulation with the above conditions for an increase and decrease. In the accumulation phase of the market, short-term open positions are always given priority. Technical positions will be given attention again as follows,
Support: 2,324 – 2,320USD
Resistance: 2,340 – 2,345USD

🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2354 - 2352

⚰️SL: 2358

⬆️TP1: 2347
⬆️TP2: 2342

🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2302 - 2304

⚰️SL: 2298

⬆️TP1: 2309
⬆️TP2: 2314

4 Jul

Catatan

🔴Fed says it’s not ready to cut rates until ‘greater confidence’ inflation is moving to 2% goal.

4 Jul

Catatan

4 Jul

Catatan

The dollar declines after interest rate cut hopes rise

The US dollar fell in early European trade on Thursday as weak economic data raised expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while the pound rose as the UK headed to the polls.

At 13:34 Riyadh time, the dollar index, which measures the US currency against a basket of six other currencies, was trading 0.15% lower at 104.907, continuing the sharp declines seen overnight.

5 Jul

Catatan

🔴The dollar falls to its lowest level in 3 weeks before the release of employment data

The US dollar fell sharply during major foreign exchange trading on Thursday, as market expectations rose regarding the Federal Reserve ending its monetary tightening policy.

7 Jul

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Goldman Sachs upgrades UK growth forecast after huge Labour election win

Goldman Sachs on Friday upgraded its growth forecast for the U.K. after the Labour Party’s victory in the country’s general election.

7 Jul

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📌The trading plan for next week will be to buy if the price returns to test around the 2335 barrier, and to sell if the price approaches the 2440 area.

8 Jul

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This week will be a busy week for financial markets due to the release of many important US economic information. On Tuesday and Wednesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will give regular testimony on monetary policy before the US Congress. Next, the US Department of Labor will release the June consumer price index (CPI) report on Thursday and the producer price index (PPI) on Friday.

8 Jul

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🟢Treasury yields rise as investors look to inflation data due in week ahead

➡️U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Monday as investors looked ahead to key economic data due throughout the week, including fresh inflation insights.

8 Jul

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🟢The US dollar begins the week's trading with a slight decline... Why?

The US dollar index witnessed clear downward pressure during global market transactions on Monday, after losing about 1% during the past week, affected by weak US economic data, which reinforced speculation about the possibility that the US Federal Reserve will begin reducing interest rates sooner than expected, which is something that... It may negatively affect future US dollar trading.

9 Jul

Catatan

On the technical chart, XAU/USD has hit resistance at $2,390, a level that caused a reversal in April. The possibility of improving risk appetite in global financial markets is still possible, supported by financial reporting season. If XAU/USD breaks above the $2,390 mark, it could be an important signal, signaling a new attack on historic highs near 2,450.

9 Jul

Catatan

On the daily chart time frame, XAUUSD has pared recent gains and is moving sideways near the downtrend line, where a further decline towards 2250 support could occur. Change in market structure above The lower time frame, through the formation of higher lows and higher highs, could indicate a potential recovery from 2250. Conversely, if XAUUSD breaks below the 2250 support level, the price could drop to 2180 - next potential support level. MACD is also below the zero threshold, indicating a bearish possibility.