Cheapest Oil in history
Diupdate
Price down nearly 75% since Russia refused to obey their Saudi masters.
Source:
ourworldindata.org/grapher/crude-oil-prices
(Not inflation adjusted on source)
1861 to 1983 those are averages, it might have been possible to buy Oil cheaper on a case to case basis, or for a brief period, but it is irrelevant.
Business Insider has a clean version: businessinsider.fr/us/oil-is-cheaper-than-it-was-in-the-1860s-2015-6
The log chart looks like this:
Saudi Arabia cost per barrel = $9 (Gross Taxes 0, Capital Spending 3.50, Production costs 3, admin transport 2.50)
Iran cost per barrel = $9
Iraq cost per barrel = $10.50
Russia cost per barrel = $19.20
Every thing else non middle east is more expensive (US at around $20, Venezuela $27.5, Norway $21, UK $45, France ??? gouv.fr is just saying that costs in the world are in the 10-40 range and that france relies at 99% on exports).
I barely recovered from the Trump trade war, wasn't ready for the Salman trade war.
I am not sure how low they can drive the price without selling at a loss... And they could sell at a loss. I bet the price at the pump will stay high.
Very confident this won't last eternaly and the price will go up eventually. I'm accumulating as it goes down. No stop but I'm not taking huge sizes. If I buy 100 barrels at 5 bucks most I can lose is 500, and if the price goes to $40 that's a +3500, even going to $20 is +1500. And if it stays in the 0-15 range for decades it's still fine can get out green.
If Oil gets magically abandonned and goes to 0 I won't lose much because I don't go all in.
Meanwhile Natgas unchanged xd
Why would people buy natgas when they can have much cheaper energy?
Maybe the price keeps falling while people are confined at home in hopes they don't catch a cold, Oil $1 by mid may confirmed.
Source:
ourworldindata.org/grapher/crude-oil-prices
(Not inflation adjusted on source)
1861 to 1983 those are averages, it might have been possible to buy Oil cheaper on a case to case basis, or for a brief period, but it is irrelevant.
Business Insider has a clean version: businessinsider.fr/us/oil-is-cheaper-than-it-was-in-the-1860s-2015-6
The log chart looks like this:
Saudi Arabia cost per barrel = $9 (Gross Taxes 0, Capital Spending 3.50, Production costs 3, admin transport 2.50)
Iran cost per barrel = $9
Iraq cost per barrel = $10.50
Russia cost per barrel = $19.20
Every thing else non middle east is more expensive (US at around $20, Venezuela $27.5, Norway $21, UK $45, France ??? gouv.fr is just saying that costs in the world are in the 10-40 range and that france relies at 99% on exports).
I barely recovered from the Trump trade war, wasn't ready for the Salman trade war.
I am not sure how low they can drive the price without selling at a loss... And they could sell at a loss. I bet the price at the pump will stay high.
Very confident this won't last eternaly and the price will go up eventually. I'm accumulating as it goes down. No stop but I'm not taking huge sizes. If I buy 100 barrels at 5 bucks most I can lose is 500, and if the price goes to $40 that's a +3500, even going to $20 is +1500. And if it stays in the 0-15 range for decades it's still fine can get out green.
If Oil gets magically abandonned and goes to 0 I won't lose much because I don't go all in.
Meanwhile Natgas unchanged xd
Why would people buy natgas when they can have much cheaper energy?
Maybe the price keeps falling while people are confined at home in hopes they don't catch a cold, Oil $1 by mid may confirmed.
Catatan
Found this:"The last time floating storage reached levels close to this was in the depths of the financial crisis in 2009, when traders stored more than 100m barrels at sea before offloading stocks when the economy began to recover."
Oh I think last time some sneaky traders took full advantage.
The mega depression of the 2020s will be far worse, I'm sure people will make money off of this. Surely not the deeply in debt us oil extactors.
When you mix greed leverage and ignorance you get pretty interesting results.
And it's just the tip of the iceberg...
Trading ditutup: stop tercapai
Dear diary I lost every thing.Short pays for long losses and more, sry crypto holders you ain't rid of me yet.
I didn't really risk every thing, I lost everything I risked with the MAY broker thought. They stopped at 0 so I didn't lose more ;)
Warehouses weren't even full in April, next month they will be.
Not sure the same play is possible next month thought...
Long june contract with cfd non professional protection brokers having a floor at zero, and short july one... We'll see.
Having no access to options I can't do what I want.
Must keep an eye on all broker news and mails and calls, if they change the rules it could get ugly, I suppose you could call this risk management, I mean it's pretty obvious would be crazy to ignore.
If one has the option to buy and store a few thousand barrels in the US then I would do it!
Brent hasn't had something like this.
Otherwise one would need a way to buy Oil at $1 when it gets there and hold for a few months or years... A long term option or something I don't know since this is closed to me.
Retail trader massively bought into long oil etfs a few days ago xd
These people.
ETFs can't disappear? I really don't know much about this either. Buying for a few dollars and holding for years might be worth it, but idk how it all works so can't tell for sure.
I mean... $1 a barrel... Clearly...
Wikipedia on the Oil storage trade:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil-storage_trade
I think the lockdown is making it much harder for traders to step in and buy & store barrels this time so...
Trade aktif
Quick shortI'll start buying later, maybe.
Catatan
at 618, could reverseHopefully not
did reverse there previously
Usually when it goes this far it continues down.
A double bottom is also possible.
I don't want to trail too tight I want the price to avalanche. Then I trail maybe.
Hodl to zero.
Catatan
Moved SL to around the red line.Price is dropping parabolically.
Poor Robinhood retail traders, they must be so eager to buy more Long Oil ETFs but trading got halted for their favorite one :(
Where are short sellers going to get liquidity?
The goal is to sell without impacting price and nice retail traders are perfect for this. Altruists.
Price is dropping parabolically, faster and faster, if and when capitulation happens price can reverse rapidly.
Set alerts and stay near the computer.
I'm no day trader but when the price moves 15% in minutes I have to be.
Catatan
Capitulation/another niagara falls.Going too fast to update.
A vertical recovery is ok, can retrace alot, should stay below previous low.
It went too fast for me to close and already bounced from 7 to 10 so I'd rather stay in.
I had a limit close at 6.8 didn't come far...
Well.
That's alot of profit to give back...
All good, shouldn't just revert? Or will it? I hate day trading, goes too fast...
Trading ditutup secara manual
Problem is I had an alert on a little under $10 with currency.com but it didn't reach that price with them... The price fell 35% in 5 minutes but not with that chart I was using.
I might short again if the price stays in the 11-15 area and makes lower lows and highs.
Trade aktif
Seeing double....Entered short a while earlier (posted in another idea)
Catatan
I only risk 12.50 euros (aiming to make 250 on this if it goes well) and I already received 7.33 interest, this is 58.6% of my risk! Imma keep shorting it any chance if its like this.I thought Bitmex gave high interest to shorts back when I was shorting BTC, but this is just ridiculous!
I don't even understand, seems so high, comes from all the complete noobs being long against parabolic moves down? Thanks guys.
22/04/20 DEPO Daily Commodities Interest for 1 day Oil - US Crude (€1) - - - 0 € 7.33 €
Trading ditutup: stop tercapai
Stopped. Maybe I'll be the idiot that bought the top.Virtually lost nothing at all.
There will be more similar opportunities this quarter, in Oil or not.
Catatan
Of course it went down.When I saw price action I wanted to move my stop up but they didn't let me.
All good, what I miss I'll make and more by using guarenteed stops (a few brokers offer these) to profit of contango with limited risk.
Turn a problem on its head.
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