Right now plan is to buy as we are on the lower ascending channel, oil supply glut is not a topic for now. However, tensions can rise quickly , also major stakeholders don't mind a higher price. It helps with inflation goal up to some extent.
Case for Short :
If global economic growth slows down __ We go for sell but at a better price or on a confirmed break and retest of the 3 year mini channel
Sanctions on IRAN disappears and they disrupt the oil market
If CHINA deal happens ( highly likely )
Long rally would be seen for 5/6 days as that should imply increased economic activities , more of a sentimental rally
Saudi Aramco should want higher price for their upcoming IPO
Finally the most bullish case would be any tension in middle east linking with IRAN would not only disrupt oil supply as they can block distribution channel ( strait of hormuz thing ). Oil is the life blood of any war , so that have strong spikes
Right now i am on the buy side , as i get any smell of trade deal , i am doubling my buy. Ultimately in the long run technically it looks like a small corrective upside rally happening on a broader down trending descending channel. However, i would be adjusting bias based on fundamental basis only
Case for Short :
If global economic growth slows down __ We go for sell but at a better price or on a confirmed break and retest of the 3 year mini channel
Sanctions on IRAN disappears and they disrupt the oil market
If CHINA deal happens ( highly likely )
Long rally would be seen for 5/6 days as that should imply increased economic activities , more of a sentimental rally
Saudi Aramco should want higher price for their upcoming IPO
Finally the most bullish case would be any tension in middle east linking with IRAN would not only disrupt oil supply as they can block distribution channel ( strait of hormuz thing ). Oil is the life blood of any war , so that have strong spikes
Right now i am on the buy side , as i get any smell of trade deal , i am doubling my buy. Ultimately in the long run technically it looks like a small corrective upside rally happening on a broader down trending descending channel. However, i would be adjusting bias based on fundamental basis only
Komentar:
Nice place to start buying !
