OIL made 2 month highs! What is the ceiling for the market?

11 Nov 2020

WTI Oil broke above the 2 month Resistance zone of 41.50 - 41.90 and is fast approaching the 43.80 High of August 26 (chart on the left). Needless to say, it broke above the bearish channel and reached the 43.00 Target as I discussed two days ago on the idea below:

How far can this go for the short-term? As the left chart shows (4H time-frame), the MACD hasn't yet rolled over (as it did on September 20), so the uptrend can extend a little further on the short-term before buyers book profits and cause a minor pull-back.

On the long-term though we have to look at the 1D time-frame (right chart), which shows an interesting development. The sequence since the November 02 low, is similar to the one following the late April bottom. The MACD pattenrs are identical. I don't need to remind you that it was the rescue package along with OPEC's production cuts that supported this insane recovery rally back then. This week we had the very encouraging vaccine news.

Can Oil start a similar rally based on such positive news? Is $47 again a realistic number? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!


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