Israel strikes Iran again

19 Apr

Israel retaliated against Iran overnight, which saw the price of WTI crude oil jump nearly 4.5% before giving up some of its gains. Per media reports, three large explosions were heard in the country's south, and the U.S. official announced Israel successfully hit some of the targets, something Iran was quick to deny. Without regard for damages, it is already apparent the two adversaries entered a spiral of reciprocatory aggression. Unless there is any form of effective mediation between the two sides (which is, by the way, unlikely), the conflict could enter a stage of regional war, with Israel potentially fighting on multiple fronts. Needless to say, this has enormous implications for the region, which is responsible for a significant portion of the global oil supply and, thus, influences oil prices (at this point, the only counterweights for the rising price of oil could be OPEC’s willingness to bring production online, protraction of global economic slowdown, and potentially more releases of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves by the USA).

Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bullish (stalling/turning neutral)
Weekly time frame = Bullish

Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.

DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.

24 Apr

Catatan

Per the assessment by the U.S. and Israeli intelligence, Iran is likely to proceed with another attack on Israel in the near future.

2 Mei

Catatan

Weakness in the U.S. stock market and bad economic data present trouble for oil. Additionally, a breakout below the lower bound of the upward-sloping channel is highly concerning.