The Beast - 2 week stay over? - long scalp/long
Price action first checked into this box that it is trying to leave on 180122 (18:00 UTC 4hr candle) and has left it to the downside twice on 200122 and 240122 but officially returned in the box on the 4 hour on 260122 with a strong 4 hour candle (06:00 UTC). This box has provided quite a few trade opportunities including 5 longs and 5 shorts.
Now we are seeing the top of the box breached multiple times in the 1 hour and 4 hour timeframe.
We have now had two 4 hourly closes above 88.37. (Top of box) Although it seems like there is strong resistance here cant help but think price action is all the way up here and recovering Red Vector candles from 2014 so why would it stop now? There are a few more close by but a big short really can happen at any time after a big pump.
The 2 shorts from Monday and yesterday fell short of going to recover the hourly Green Vector candle from 260122 at 86.07 but gave good long prices (86.35 and 86.59) back to the top of the box each time. The reason we have held most of the position from 86.59 buy stops is because of the 4 hour close in the box above and above (88.37) from yesterday's Asian session. It could all be faking out, but we will take a punt on this one. stop losses are set at 70 pips profit so whatever happens is ok.
Now the question is, how many Red Vectors will be recovered before the next big drop, even if it will continue to rise again after?
That no one can be certain of but looking at the chart and other confluences like the embedded Daily RSI and the 2 closes in the 4HR box above, this looks like there may be a bit left in the tank here. Even if there is a retracement first. But one thing is for sure, a big short will come soon enough.
The next Daily Red Vector Candle from (07102014) to be recovered is $1 (100) pips above current action at 89.4, that is our next Bullish target and short scalp point.
After that we are looking at a Weekly Red Vector top at 90.71 from (06102014) which is $2.30 (230 pips) from current price action. That is a Bullish target and short scalp point. After that it is 91.82 which is $3.41 (341 pips) away for a daily Red Vector from 03102014. This is a Bullish target and a short/short scalp point.
If for any reason the trend of the last few weeks doesn't want to include this week, we can see a flip to the downside. We are looking for a break back below and a close back in the box below on the 4 hour time frame to switch back short but have sell stops below the action at 87.95 with tight stop losses.
86.07 is first target.
IF OIL FAILS TO BREAK KEY RESISTANCES ABOVE IT CAN TURN BEARISH TEMPORARILY OR LONGER TERM
THE SHORT VIEW
A 4HR CLOSE BACK IN THE BOX BELOW WILL BE BEARISH SIGNAL
The daily losing the embedded on the RSI will also be a Bearish signal
If this thing will go short, it can do so at any moment. Even though this is more of a long idea based on the 4 hour timeframe, the price that Oil is at right now really does not make sense in a lot of ways. Furthermore it has recovered 3 Red Vector candles from 2014 in the space of a week. Getting to the top of this box-that it has now had two 4 hour closes in - will make it 5 Red Vector candles from 2014 recovered. This box may be more interesting than the last. The short would definitely be better from 90-92, but we are ready to switch and and be short at the drop of a hat. However if that is not the plan we will look for some funny behaviour with candles around 13:00-14:30 UTC and see what gets set up When Price make contact with the right Vector candle above under the right condition, the reaction will be violent to the downside and could initiate the drop everyone wants to see.
Another thing that has us a little apprehensive to be long is that there is a Bearish Moon is the moon phases indicator which does tend to catch big moves when it appears in the higher timeframes even if they don't happen immediately. We are ready to close the rest of our long when sell stops start getting activated but will manage some and leave +70 pip profit stop loss in place on some.
86.07, 84.45, 84, 83.7, 83.23, 81.7 and 80.7, 80.3 are all the next stops on a $6-$8 dump.
Beyond that
(79.4, 77.7, 77.47, 75.7. 74.7, 73.7, 73.4)
Good luck guys!
This is not financial advice and should be taken with a pinch of salt
Now we are seeing the top of the box breached multiple times in the 1 hour and 4 hour timeframe.
We have now had two 4 hourly closes above 88.37. (Top of box) Although it seems like there is strong resistance here cant help but think price action is all the way up here and recovering Red Vector candles from 2014 so why would it stop now? There are a few more close by but a big short really can happen at any time after a big pump.
The 2 shorts from Monday and yesterday fell short of going to recover the hourly Green Vector candle from 260122 at 86.07 but gave good long prices (86.35 and 86.59) back to the top of the box each time. The reason we have held most of the position from 86.59 buy stops is because of the 4 hour close in the box above and above (88.37) from yesterday's Asian session. It could all be faking out, but we will take a punt on this one. stop losses are set at 70 pips profit so whatever happens is ok.
Now the question is, how many Red Vectors will be recovered before the next big drop, even if it will continue to rise again after?
That no one can be certain of but looking at the chart and other confluences like the embedded Daily RSI and the 2 closes in the 4HR box above, this looks like there may be a bit left in the tank here. Even if there is a retracement first. But one thing is for sure, a big short will come soon enough.
The next Daily Red Vector Candle from (07102014) to be recovered is $1 (100) pips above current action at 89.4, that is our next Bullish target and short scalp point.
After that we are looking at a Weekly Red Vector top at 90.71 from (06102014) which is $2.30 (230 pips) from current price action. That is a Bullish target and short scalp point. After that it is 91.82 which is $3.41 (341 pips) away for a daily Red Vector from 03102014. This is a Bullish target and a short/short scalp point.
If for any reason the trend of the last few weeks doesn't want to include this week, we can see a flip to the downside. We are looking for a break back below and a close back in the box below on the 4 hour time frame to switch back short but have sell stops below the action at 87.95 with tight stop losses.
86.07 is first target.
IF OIL FAILS TO BREAK KEY RESISTANCES ABOVE IT CAN TURN BEARISH TEMPORARILY OR LONGER TERM
THE SHORT VIEW
A 4HR CLOSE BACK IN THE BOX BELOW WILL BE BEARISH SIGNAL
The daily losing the embedded on the RSI will also be a Bearish signal
If this thing will go short, it can do so at any moment. Even though this is more of a long idea based on the 4 hour timeframe, the price that Oil is at right now really does not make sense in a lot of ways. Furthermore it has recovered 3 Red Vector candles from 2014 in the space of a week. Getting to the top of this box-that it has now had two 4 hour closes in - will make it 5 Red Vector candles from 2014 recovered. This box may be more interesting than the last. The short would definitely be better from 90-92, but we are ready to switch and and be short at the drop of a hat. However if that is not the plan we will look for some funny behaviour with candles around 13:00-14:30 UTC and see what gets set up When Price make contact with the right Vector candle above under the right condition, the reaction will be violent to the downside and could initiate the drop everyone wants to see.
Another thing that has us a little apprehensive to be long is that there is a Bearish Moon is the moon phases indicator which does tend to catch big moves when it appears in the higher timeframes even if they don't happen immediately. We are ready to close the rest of our long when sell stops start getting activated but will manage some and leave +70 pip profit stop loss in place on some.
86.07, 84.45, 84, 83.7, 83.23, 81.7 and 80.7, 80.3 are all the next stops on a $6-$8 dump.
Beyond that
(79.4, 77.7, 77.47, 75.7. 74.7, 73.7, 73.4)
Good luck guys!
This is not financial advice and should be taken with a pinch of salt
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