XBTFX

CRYPTO week ahead: September 26 – October 2

CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL   Total Cap Pasar Crypto, $
Last week in the news

Although the markets were expecting another FED's rate hike, FEDs Chair Powell's address after the FOMC meeting was the major trigger to support market`s negative sentiment. Both US and EU markets were closed lower on Friday, including the crypto market. Bitcoin fell below support line at $20K, while Ether modestly recovered above $1.3K.

As it has been expected, the FED increased its benchmark interest rates by additional 75bps. Although the markets were expecting such a move from FED, still the statement made by the FED`s Chair Powell after the meeting was the one that triggered markets downturn as of the end of the previous week. He expressed some very concerning expectations that the economic output will drop, unemployment will increase in the future period while during this time FED will continue to increase interest rates and withdraw liquidity from the economy. By FED`s expectations, the inflation will return to targeted 2% until year 2025. The 2Y Treasury bonds reached level of 4.2% on Friday, which is a 15-year high for this bond, while 10Y continued to rise to the level of 3,67%.

After last month’s announcement from BlackRock of its intentions to offer crypto currencies to its institutional clients, during the last week Nasdaq issued a statement with information that the second largest US stock market is beginning operations covering a crypto custody service to its clients. Those two are the latest big names from traditional finances who are entering into the crypto business. As per analysts involved in the matter, this could be treated as only the beginning of the TradFi penetration into the crypto markets.

In anticipation of a potential finalisation of the resolution of the Ripple Labs dispute with the SEC, the investors interest for Ripple`s coin XRP was significantly increased during the previous week. XRP managed to reach a level of $0.5 despite a general negative trend on the crypto market during the last week. Considering that the SEC and Ripple Labs filed for summary judgement, it increased expectations from market participants that the final resolution might be ruled by the court until the end of this year.
It has been officially announced that the co-founder of the crypto exchange Kraken, Jesse Powell, will step down as a CEO of Kraken. It is expected that Kraken`s COO, Dave Ripley, will take over the CEO position. At the same time, Powell will remain within the company as a chairman of the Board and be further involved on product developments.

The JPMorgan noted few concerns regarding the latest Ethereum network upgrade, popularly called Merge. Namely, as noted by the bank, introduction of new EtherPoW might bring a division in the Ethereum community and also that the blockchain became less decentralised, as majority of coins are holded by the minority of entities.
The big win for Coinbase was the approval of operations from the Dutch central bank, during the previous week. Although this approval means that the exchanger can offer products and services only in the Netherlands, the introduction of the EU regulation MiCA will provide the opportunity to Coinbase to offer its products across the EU countries.

Crypto market cap

What FED`s Chair Powell said in a statement after the FOMC meeting is that FED is willing to crush the economy in order to halt the inflation. Although he was not using the same words, this is what investors on the market actually heard. What is more depressing is that he noticed a year 2025 when inflation might return to targeted levels. Certainly, any sort of optimisms on markets had been crushed, and the future path is pretty clear by now – the squeeze of liquidity might further decrease the value on the markets, including also the crypto market. In line with the market sentiment, total crypto market capitalization decreased by $35B or 4% during the previous week. Daily trading volumes continue to be constant, moving around $120B on a daily basis. Total funds outflow from the beginning of this year stands at the level of $1.278B, which is a total drop of 59%.

Previous week`s drop in the crypto market capitalization was led by major coins, BTC and ETH, which combined lost a total amount of $33B. Altcoins were traded in a mixed mode. BTC decreased its market cap by 4.5% or $17B, while Ether outperformed BTC in a relative sense by decreasing its cap by 8.5% or $15B. In a relative terms, coins which lost the most during the week are Ethereum Classic, with a drop of almost 15% in market cap, and is followed by EOS which also had an decrease in value of almost 16%. On the other hand, XRP had a very good week, where the coin managed to increase market capitalization by $5B or 27% on a weekly basis, supported by potential dispute between SEC and Ripple Labs. Dogecoin, Stellar and Miota were also coins which managed to increase market cap by more than 6%. As for coins in circulation, Filecoin continues to increase its circulating coins for several weeks now, adding 2.5% to total coins during the previous week.

Crypto futures market

Market fears over potential future recession in the US, supported by the central banker`s moves in order to fight inflation, turned the financial markets to the red zone, including futures market. BTC futures with shorter maturity were down by some 4%, with December 2022 closing at the price below $19K. Longer term maturities were down by some 2% on average. The drop in ETH future prices was higher, where all maturities were traded at prices around $1.3K. Short term maturities dropped by more than 9%. December this year was closed at $1.280. Longer term maturities were down by some 13% on average.

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