TDOC pitchfork pattern analysis

TDOC closed below the 2nd pitchfork on 9/16 which is the signal the trend will soon reverse and go up. That happened indeed. At this point TDOC reached the top of the 1st pitchfork which acts as a resistance line (and is also close to the purple resistance line). This means it may bounce back down or break through. Given that that market has reversed and is going up (see my related SPY ideas below), it is likely that TDOC will break trough. Then I expect TDOC to reach the upper line of the last pitchfork (see the blue arrow). Given more time TDOC will likely reach at least the middle (brown) line of the second pitchfork.

Additionally, there is also an bullish signal on 9/10 for TDOC (when price was 198.14) for a strategy with 952% backtesting profit since 2016 (market data available since some time in 2015) and 77% profitable trades (the strategy is based on my Tug-of-War indicators).

Conclusion: go long. Post-market TDOC is down to 213.38 at this time. If that stays the same till tomorrow at opening it may be a good buy opportunity.

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DISCLAIMER: Security trading involves substantial risk of loss. My analysis is not trading advice. Do your own research first and/or consult a financial advisor. I'm not responsible for any losses you may incur following my analysis.

Komentar:

Next day after I posted this idea the price went up to the purple resistance line (high slightly over). As I said, at that point "it may bounce back down or break through". I expected a swifter recover and a break through the resistance line but the price went down to the bottom/support channel/pitchfork line (looks like the low exactly touched the line) and then it went back up touched the resistance line again. I think the breaking through the resistance line will happen now.

Komentar:

There is a good chance that it (and the market as well) will fall on Monday before resuming the upward move. Here's why I think so. I wrote an algo/strategy that gives excellent results for TECL (a leveraged 3x bull tech sector ETF). The version optimized for TECL gives 677,000% profit since 2012 in backtesting. The version optimized for SPY (and used unchanged on TECL) has about 50,000% profit (www.tradingview.com/...tegy-Bullish-Signal/) and this year over 90% profitable trades. Because it's so accurate it's a good gauge for the market. On Thursday at close the algo gave a bearish signal. Rather often fall follows the bearish signal one day late. For example, in forward testing the algo predicted the current fall on Sep. 1 but Sep. 2 the market went up and only on Sep. 3 the big fall happened (you can see that in the link here). Similarly, one version of the algo also gives a bearish signal on Sep. 21 and Sep. 22 the market was up and only on Sep. 23 it fell (and there is a long signal for close of Sep. 23). So the bearish signal from Thursday may very well mean that Friday the market would go up (which it did indeed; the algo also gave an intra-day bullish signal in the morning which disappeared later after the price went up) and would fall on Monday. However I expect this fall to be temporary (one day only) and I don't expect the price to fall lower than the lower pitchfork line and I expect a bullish signal from the algo at close on Monday.