Hi folks!
As you all know the fundamentals behind the stock market rally is not great - and it is driven by one thing and one thing only:
All time low real interest rates (U.S. CPI - US10y is almost 5.5 percentage points - that is insane!).
Since the market has kept on going far longer than I expected, I have turned much more into T.A. in the last couple of months.
Right now, there are a lot of technicals signs warning about a correction imo:
- The massive wedge broke in September and was retested with rejection in November.
- We have a massive bearish divergence on both the 1D and the 1W - where the latter has historically signalled very large corrections.
- A Head and Shoulder pattern has formed - both it you count from the september and the the november tops (they were double tops).
- The S&P500 is now exactly at the support line since the september lows.
- The VIX is way too low according to the correction we have seen - which signals complacency.
As I have stated earlier, I have jumped ship a long time ago and only trade the VIX these days - However, I do not recommend this to anyone.
DYOR.
NFA.
I wish you all well :)
As you all know the fundamentals behind the stock market rally is not great - and it is driven by one thing and one thing only:
All time low real interest rates (U.S. CPI - US10y is almost 5.5 percentage points - that is insane!).
Since the market has kept on going far longer than I expected, I have turned much more into T.A. in the last couple of months.
Right now, there are a lot of technicals signs warning about a correction imo:
- The massive wedge broke in September and was retested with rejection in November.
- We have a massive bearish divergence on both the 1D and the 1W - where the latter has historically signalled very large corrections.
- A Head and Shoulder pattern has formed - both it you count from the september and the the november tops (they were double tops).
- The S&P500 is now exactly at the support line since the september lows.
- The VIX is way too low according to the correction we have seen - which signals complacency.
As I have stated earlier, I have jumped ship a long time ago and only trade the VIX these days - However, I do not recommend this to anyone.
DYOR.
NFA.
I wish you all well :)
