Nvidia’s pain may be the Russell 2000s gain, if sentiment towards the US economic outlook holds up. The rotation of capital out of AI names has to go somewhere, and as we’ve seen over recent months, that’s often been into US small cap stocks which trade at substantially lower valuations.
While the price action since Jerome Powell’s speech last Friday hasn’t been convincing, with much of the 3%-plus gains unwound in the last three sessions following a bearish pin and pattern that some may describe as three crows, it’s notable the unwind stalled at 2186.4, an obvious horizontal support dating back to the middle of July.
If risk sentiment holds up during the session, which is likely to be determined not by Nvidia but incoming US economic data such as jobless claims and second read of Q2 GDP, near-term upside is favoured over downside.
Traders could buy here or wait for pullbacks towards 2186.4 and place a stop below the level for protection. The initial trade target would be 22493.3 with 2320.5 the next after that.
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