$OXY Bearish Sentiment - In Line with Energy Sector

17 Jun 2022

Rather than look at XLE or the energy sector as a whole - looking at an integrated Oil and Gas company with more volatility gives us a better picture of the environment. There are obviously severe worries of a recession - hence the breaking of correlation between OXY and OIL futures the past couple days. With oil futures falling as well, the backdrop sets a fairly bearish tone for the short term. Looking at the levels, OXY could fall into the mid 40s prior to consolidation and then possible bullish setup.

Bullish case: Russia and/or OPEC production shortages supply constraining...US Demand stays strong...GDP growth stays positive for Q2
Bearish case: Oil continues to fall due to expected demand falling... Russia/OPEC issues subside/aren't as bad as expected...Fiscal policies before midterms