Long $NDX $NQ_F into the annual Black Friday trade

23 Nov 2020

Nearly every year, and especially in election years, there is a seasonal rotation back into big box tech stocks in anticipation of the long weekend and Thanksgiving. I attribute a lot of this buying to the Black Friday spree where Americans dive into big deals online and in department stores.

Nasdaq futures are shown above and the consolidation above the 21 Day EMA is promising. Today Russell 2000 hit a brand new intraday all time high. I expect this trade to progress starting today (Monday) and through Cyber Monday. At that point we may see another "Turnaround Tuesday" in the opposite direction back down.

23 Nov 2020

Catatan

Timing is important, and this seasonality chart shows that on average NDX has a bottom starting on the Friday prior to Thanksgiving, which was NOV 20.

23 Nov 2020

Catatan

DJI also shows a consolidation on average last week (mid November) before resuming the uptrend to the end of the month.

Remember that the last 5 days of the month outperform the first 5 days of the month, and buying into any USA market holiday is a winning strategy the vast majority of the time.

24 Nov 2020

Catatan

As DJI futures once again hit 30,000 it seems we may see an active rotation of tech stocks here into Monday NOV 30.

The wedge is getting busted which was the first hurdle. Target for today (tuesday) would be 12100.

12200 and beyond by Friday would be very nice.

24 Nov 2020

Catatan

Percent stocks above 100 DMA reached pretty overbought levels today not seen in at least 2 years.

30 Nov 2020

Catatan

We could get a pseudo back test of the broken wedge on NQ (NDX). Remember that this trade was only to Black Friday. Dumping longs into Friday was a good idea.

30 Nov 2020

Catatan

I bought back in on the old NOV 16 backtest along with the Weekly Pivot just above.

Again, this trade for NDX was only really designed for a close on Black Friday, this week shows a lot of chop for the election year profile, before resuming the uptrend to DECM 8-10 or so.

30 Des 2020

Catatan

If still in this trade, good time to take profit before the new year and wait.