Are we really in a Bull Market with daily Sell-offs?
NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -14-09-21
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
17420.35 / 17438.55 / 17367.05 / 17380.00
H-L = 77 points
VIX 13.58 / -3.21%
FII DII: +1330 Crores
Likely open: Positive Gap-up provided it is able to stay above today’s close for an hour or so.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 Minutes Chart
A gap-up open and then a new ATH was flagged and then the usual drifting game started with the mandatory sell-off just after 1300h and then sideways moves that resulted in yet another ATH Close, but well below the ATH as well as daily high by 58 points.
The daily chart indicates that there is a series of Doji-type candles - do they suggest a continuation pattern or exhaustion?
I am not sure about it.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
The Weight Lifters
TCS 09
HCL TECH 07
LT 07
KOTAK BANK 06
INDUSIND BANK 05
TOTAL 34
The Laggards
HDFC 12
HDFC BANK 07
NESTLE 04
INFOSYS 04
HUL 04
TOTAL 33
Lifter - Draggers = +1
POSITIVES
NIFTY closed at a new ATH and also hit a new ATH.
TATAMOTORS, KOTAK BANK, TCS, and LT have shown strong momentum.
NIFTY was resilient to a great extent as the day low was above 17350 and almost a 100 points above the low of the earlier session.
FIIs have bought in excess of 1400 Crores.
NEGATIVES
RELIANCE, HDFC twins, and INFOSYS ended up dragging the indices from the higher plains.
NIFTY is closing a well 58 points below the ATH.
BANK NIFTY though ended in the green continues to under perform.
TRADING RANGE FOR 15-09-21
17000-17200 is the support base.17400-450-500 may be the resistance area for NIFTY.
BANK NIFTY support stays at 36200-400 and resistance at 37000-37200.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
They say looks are deceiving. And NIFTY is doing exactly the same. It is in a bull market, has made an ATH close after hitting an ATH high that was 58 points above the closing price.
The first few minutes register a high and then the drifting game starts which at times results in sell-off and if it falls around 17300 or below, it bounces back and ends flat.
I have been writing for over 2 years but I have not seen such situations happening around ATH levels.
The manner in which the prices move of some of the heavyweights gives an indication that what is happening appears to be stage-managed as the candles on the daily charts would confirm so.
When an index or a stock is at ATH, the path of least resistance should be on the upside. However, in the case of NIFTY, it is on the downside and that is what is surprising. INFOSYS, RELIANCE, HDFC BANK are being used to cap the upside in NIFTY for now as these three on their combined strength can lift NIFTY way beyond 17500.
In the end, patience and the ability to read the intent of the market and the scrips is more likely to pay off than anything else.
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
14-09-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
17420.35 / 17438.55 / 17367.05 / 17380.00
H-L = 77 points
VIX 13.58 / -3.21%
FII DII: +1330 Crores
Likely open: Positive Gap-up provided it is able to stay above today’s close for an hour or so.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 Minutes Chart
A gap-up open and then a new ATH was flagged and then the usual drifting game started with the mandatory sell-off just after 1300h and then sideways moves that resulted in yet another ATH Close, but well below the ATH as well as daily high by 58 points.
The daily chart indicates that there is a series of Doji-type candles - do they suggest a continuation pattern or exhaustion?
I am not sure about it.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
The Weight Lifters
TCS 09
HCL TECH 07
LT 07
KOTAK BANK 06
INDUSIND BANK 05
TOTAL 34
The Laggards
HDFC 12
HDFC BANK 07
NESTLE 04
INFOSYS 04
HUL 04
TOTAL 33
Lifter - Draggers = +1
POSITIVES
NIFTY closed at a new ATH and also hit a new ATH.
TATAMOTORS, KOTAK BANK, TCS, and LT have shown strong momentum.
NIFTY was resilient to a great extent as the day low was above 17350 and almost a 100 points above the low of the earlier session.
FIIs have bought in excess of 1400 Crores.
NEGATIVES
RELIANCE, HDFC twins, and INFOSYS ended up dragging the indices from the higher plains.
NIFTY is closing a well 58 points below the ATH.
BANK NIFTY though ended in the green continues to under perform.
TRADING RANGE FOR 15-09-21
17000-17200 is the support base.17400-450-500 may be the resistance area for NIFTY.
BANK NIFTY support stays at 36200-400 and resistance at 37000-37200.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
They say looks are deceiving. And NIFTY is doing exactly the same. It is in a bull market, has made an ATH close after hitting an ATH high that was 58 points above the closing price.
The first few minutes register a high and then the drifting game starts which at times results in sell-off and if it falls around 17300 or below, it bounces back and ends flat.
I have been writing for over 2 years but I have not seen such situations happening around ATH levels.
The manner in which the prices move of some of the heavyweights gives an indication that what is happening appears to be stage-managed as the candles on the daily charts would confirm so.
When an index or a stock is at ATH, the path of least resistance should be on the upside. However, in the case of NIFTY, it is on the downside and that is what is surprising. INFOSYS, RELIANCE, HDFC BANK are being used to cap the upside in NIFTY for now as these three on their combined strength can lift NIFTY way beyond 17500.
In the end, patience and the ability to read the intent of the market and the scrips is more likely to pay off than anything else.
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
14-09-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
