MDLZ: +17% or Bye Bye Bulls

15 Agu

Technical Analysis of Mondelez Internation, Inc (MDLZ)

From Left to Right (Monthly - Weekly - Daily - Hourly)

First of all, this was discovered as potentially interesting using the Screener to identify assets with ADX moving above 15 on the Weekly chart.

"Some of the best buy signals are found when ADX is below 15 and begins to rise." - Chuck Le Beau (Author of 'Technical Traders Guide to Computer Analysis of the Futures Markets')

All Timeframes View:



Monthly:



Here a pattern repeats 2 times previously and I expect it may happen again now. The price is trending up with SMA 10 above EMA 30. Price pulled back into the Sweet Spot between the two and provides a buying opportunity to Swing Traders. The Stochastics (5,3,3) go low and cross bullish while creating a bullish candlestick reversal pattern. RSI (5) crosses above 50.

Weekly:



A Fibonacci Channel connects the first two shown uptrend lows and the highest high between them (all candlestick reversal patterns). The circled areas on the Weekly chart are the same ones on the Monthly. Notice that they all occur on the 200 period EMA.

Note: What is different this time around is the black candle of sellers at the 0.236 Fibonacci level. This did not happen the previous two times. Perhaps this is indicative that price will not this time hit the 0.618 level as it did the previous two times. If that's the case we have an important bearish clue here. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) just had a Weekly TD Sequential 9 Sell signal which precipitated the market turning around and this was further reflected in chart patterns on stocks like Apple (AAPL) which showed a Head & Shoulders on the Daily chart (not illustrated). The recent large gap down (Falling Window) patterns across the market coincided with the shoulder line. In any case, you may have observed like I have that price has steadily and with continued bullish vigor risen above the shoulder line. Steve Nison quoted someone saying, "There's nothing more bullish than a failed Head & Shoulders". What is a failed Head & Shoulders if not one which promptly regains the shoulder line as AAPL is demonstrating. In that case, if things are as bullish as they may appear, then the black candle on the Weekly Mondelez chart simply captures this market experience but will not negate repeating the pattern of now heading to target the 0.618 price area around $82.

Daily:



The white circles on this chart are the current and previous circles on the Weekly and Monthly charts. Note the Falling Window on the left. This was supposed to be an area of resistance but bulls broke out of it and then pulled back to test it for support (first circle). The current up move started with the Bullish Engulfing Pattern at this confirmed Falling Window resistance-turned-support level (Change of Polarity). Price gapped up after that and later pulled back to test the new Rising Window for support. This behavior led the crossing of the moving averages.

Price broke out of the green rectangle which was previously resistance. It was tested multiple time for support and buyers were present in numbers to carry price up to the previous pink polarity resistance level. You can see the long upper shadow confirming sellers at this level.

Hourly:



So what do you see? A buying opportunity in the Sweet Spot between the moving averages on a new Pivot Low or does this represent the final hopes and delusions of bulls? :)

16 Agu

Catatan

Hammer inside PB&J Sweet Spot [10 SMA / 30 EMA]
Target $79.50 = Height of box range breakout.
Stop Loss below Hammer support and 10 period ATR: $69.40

16 Agu

Catatan

On 156m it's a Shadow-30 Hammer.



(The standard U.S. trading session lasts 6.5 hours (390 minutes). A 156-minute chart divides the trading day into two equal periods of 156 minutes each)