Will Today’s Coffee Market See a 15¢ Drop Like April 18?

4 Nov

The coffee market is currently testing its support range around 240-260, but recent patterns suggest a bearish outlook. Looking back at April 18 and September 6, we saw sharp price drops of 15¢ and 10¢, respectively, in a single session—both on the back of bearish signals that are resurfacing today. With the added downward pressure of typical Monday trading, today’s movement could follow a similar path, potentially driving prices down to 233 or even challenging the lower blue band at 230.

If the price breaks below 230, it would signal a shift in momentum and open the door for further declines. I should watch for strong volume on any drop below this level, as it could confirm a break in support and set a new range in motion.

Given my strategy to enter on a reversal bar, consider waiting for confirmation that price has indeed tested or broken the support around 233 or 230. If the price drops to those levels, look for a reversal signal—such as a bullish engulfing or hammer pattern—forming at or just below these key support zones.

My entry level:
Short Strategy

1. First Level: Follow advanced school run strategy as it is quite a break-out set-up.
   
2. Second Level: Reversal bar around Yesterday High 249
   

Long Strategy

1. First Level: If the price reaches around 233 and shows a reversal bar with strong buying volume, this could be a favorable entry.
   
2. Second Level: Should the price break to 230 and quickly rebound with a clear reversal pattern, this would serve as another possible entry point.