Gold leans more to the Bearish side

Gold's general commentary: Despite the strong Bearish candle sequence on the Bond Yields, Gold remains Neutral and above my Support for the day as the U.S. session approaches and Congress tensions resurface. However, #1,792.80 is new/old Resistance zone made by the Hourly 4 candlestick configuration, followed by #1,800.80 psychological barrier. Gold is pulling back again after it failed to break above its Lower High on the Hourly 1 chart. Still I haven’t got confirmation for Medium-term opportunity and it is still not worth entering the market without tight Risk management. Today’s Wall Street opening Bell can have Bullish impact also on Yields, hence Bearish for Gold. My Selling bias is unchanged as I will treat Bullish spikes as an oscillation from Overbought to Neutral (Williams%), which created new space for Bearish aggressive correction. Thursday's opening delivered strong Selling pressure on Gold but still not enough since #1,763.80 Hourly 4 chart is not compromised. Also on the other side, Gold failed to break above the Double Top zone and was rejected (already being around # +0.48%). With Hourly 4 chart now turning Bearish, the spot price (which is always the focus of my analysis) should be close to my #1,763.80 (strong Support) and the Hourly 4 #1,758.80 - #1,763.80 is now representing an strong Support zone and unlocking key for #1,700.80 psychological barrier fractal, as mentioned many times in my reports. Gold eventually honored the Hourly 4 chart’s Head and Shoulders pattern and if the identical IH&S pattern of February #24 - March #11 is replicated, then I can expect a #2 session bounce on the Hourly 4 Support, followed by a Bearish break out below (and towards #1,727.80). So, as I noted, Gold can go both way’s (since market closed above the #1,760.80) on Friday. The correlation of Gold with Bond Yields is very strong (and diagonally correlated). The upside extension remains #1,800.80.


Technical analysis: Gold is again under pressure (Xau-Usd in focus on my analysis) on the current Hourly 4 candle, despite staying Technically Neutral, with the Hourly 1 ready to Support the Price-action - soon to be tested. It is not at all encouraging for Buyers, that the Daily chart is about to turn Bearish which in my opinion indicates that if the Hourly 1 Support breaks again (#1,763.80), Gold can even test the #1,740’s belt. The session went according to the plan I set earlier as Gold got rejected just below #1,786.80 area (strong Resistance) showing reversal signs. Gold is Technically and Fundamentally equipped for an aggressive decline. If E.U. opening delivers Bearish sentiment (#10$ or more tomorrow), I may see a quiet Selling session on the aftermath. As discussed, I will not be surprised to see #1,792.80 tested again as Yields are on parabolic downtrend. I will be waiting to engage my Selling sequence towards Lower zone. Interesting fractal should yet be repeated, as Gold is cyclical asset. On September #24 - November #6 variance, Price-action was ascending after Bottom test, and delivered another Lower Low extension on the aftermath. Same variance occurred on (November #30 - January #5 / March #8 - #18, March #31 - April #22). Gold touched the Support, rejection followed - if cycle is yet to be repeated, Gold might stall the Price-action for #1 - #3 sessions then deliver sharp move towards #1,727.80 Lower Low (Target zone).


My position: I am currently on sidelines without taking excessive risks. I will Buy Gold only if #1,786.80 Resistance breaks, calling for #1,800.80 psychological barrier extension, while I will Sell on spot if #1,765.80 breaks, calling for #1,740.80 extension. Technically Gold leans more to the Bearish side (Bond Yields on main stage). However without a strong catalysts, don't be surprised if you see thin Volume throughout today's session.