Gold (XAUUSD): Trend channel broken amid latest economic data

15 Nov

Gold futures (XAUUSD) have fallen to a two-month low, influenced by a stronger U.S. dollar at a one-year high and Bitcoin’s rise to $90,000, amid a shifting economic narrative highlighted by Donald Trump’s resurgence in the political arena.

This recent drop has prompted us to revise our technical scenario. Losing the trend channel on the chart has triggered our alternative outlook, leading to adjustments in the wave count. While it is theoretically possible that the wave ((4)) hasn’t concluded yet, this seems increasingly unlikely given the current price action and market environment.

Gold’s continued decline coincides with the latest U.S. economic data. Both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports aligned with expectations, but they failed to reinforce hopes of an interest rate cut in January. Higher real yields on U.S. Treasury bonds have made non-yielding assets like Gold less attractive, adding to the bearish momentum.

Looking forward, we are closely monitoring the price reaction to these developments. While the possibility of a short-term rebound exists, the loss of the trend channel is a key bearish signal that could point to further downside. We remain cautious and ready to update our strategy as the situation evolves.

28 Nov

Catatan

Gold (XAUUSD) is moving as anticipated, with wave B now unfolding. Following the loss of the trend channel, Gold bottomed around $2550, confirming the end of wave A. Currently, wave B is forming what appears to be a three-wave structure. We believe wave ((b)) has yet to be completed before wave B concludes near $2735.

Yesterday, Gold rose to $2640 per ounce as market participants digested the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes and awaited key U.S. economic data for insights into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction. This upward move aligns with our expectations, though the possibility remains that wave B could extend higher than the current wave 5.

Technically, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement aligns well with our projection for the wave B top. A reversal from this level would confirm our bearish outlook moving forward. Updates will follow as wave ((b)) progresses and we near the potential conclusion of wave B.