Markets tend to trade in patterns independent of news flow. A pattern playing out in EUR/USD may signal there is a broader bearish move in the works toward 1.1300 on a breakdown from the multi-month consolidation pattern that could be nearing its end. While Trump’s comments have taken the FX world by storm as it is unusual for a sitting US president to critique the Fed, but Trump’s criticism will not sway the Fed and introduce a full dollar reversal.
Possible Fundamental Trigger: ECB Rate Announcement on Thursday, July 26, 2018.
Point to Establish Short Exposure: At Market
Spot: $1.1727 per EUR
Target 1: $1.1450 per EUR (61.8% Triangle Thrust Target)
Target 2: $1.1300 per EUR (100% Triangle Thrust Target)
Invalidation Level: Close >$1.1800 (July opening range high)
Possible Fundamental Trigger: ECB Rate Announcement on Thursday, July 26, 2018.
Point to Establish Short Exposure: At Market
Spot: $1.1727 per EUR
Target 1: $1.1450 per EUR (61.8% Triangle Thrust Target)
Target 2: $1.1300 per EUR (100% Triangle Thrust Target)
Invalidation Level: Close >$1.1800 (July opening range high)