The $EURUSD pair is currently trading below the 200 day simple moving average, suggesting that the long term trend is bearish. The 5 day exponential moving average has just crossed below the 10 day exponential moving average which tells us that the market is likely to move lower. This trade historically has had a 50% win rate with an average loss of around 65 pips and average win of around 150 pips. Exit is when the 5 day EMA crosses back above the 10 day EMA. Stop is at the previous swing high point.