FX:EURCHF   Euro / Franc Swiss
the Swiss Franc is backed by arguably the most dovish major central bank for current policy. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has maintained a negative -0.75 percent benchmark for six years. This unusual policy stance was the result of a failed effort to maintain a floor for EURCHF. Since that extreme disruptive fallout, the exchange rate only briefly returned to that 1.20 level back in the second quarter of 2018. Markets have been trading meaningfully off those highs since and we have recently returned to lows not seen since August 2015. There was an unconfirmed believe in the market until November that the SNB was actively acting to keep the exchange rate above 1.0500, but the slide since that floor gave cut the belief that they were attempting – or worse that they were even capable of the feat. There are serious negative economic and financial complications that come with this exchange rate dive for Switzerland. They may struggle to permanently turn the trend, but the market would certainly be very sensitive to an initial correction which would lead to speculation that the central bank is attempting to intervene.

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