ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Watching For Higher Low 290s.

18 Okt 2017

ETHUSD Update: Price reaches the 286 support area and rejects it with an initial push back to 310. This may be the beginning of a bullish reversal formation on the larger time frame and I am WATCHING carefully for a new swing trade long.

BTC and the rest of the markets broke supports and pushed lows, which is interesting because when BTC pushes highs, these markets are not so quick to follow, but when it is pushing lows, the follow the leader behavior shows up again. With that being said, this market has reached even more attractive support areas for a swing trade long.

The 295 support is the .382 of the entire bullish swing which broke but the 286 level which is an area of repetitive buying not only held, but got a rush of bullish price action taking this market back up to 310. Often sharp bounces like these are the beginning of a momentum change, in this case back to bullish.

The other great thing about this situation is risk can be clearly defined by the 286 level. So my plan is to wait for a retrace possibly back to 300 or slightly below and look for a swing trade long entry. If a price area between 300 and 295 can show a bullish candle, I will look to go long in that area with a STOP AT 284. Once again to control risk, I will start with a smaller position of 25% of my usual position size. My target area is in the high 330s. Reward/risk is about 2.5/1. Also if I manage to get long and price is behaving the way it should, I will look to buy the other 75% of the position upon an upside break of 310 (AFTER I am in my initial position, otherwise I stay FLAT).

Buying into bearish momentum is a process that requires strict attention to risk. It is possible for this market to keep selling if the 286 level is taken out again. The next support is in the 258 to 232 zone which is the .618 of the entire bullish swing.

If price retests the lower support zone, that would signal to me that a consolidating market is more likely to follow rather than a retest of the highs. Either way, that area can offer swing trade opportunities as well (adjusted with more conservative targets).

In summary, sell offs such as these are where the lower risk buying opportunities often reveal themselves, not at the highs especially when everyone is "painting rockets" as one trader once so eloquently described. It isn't easy though because the randomness of the market is always throwing curve balls, that is why keeping risk minimized is so important during a time like this. Absorbing small losses while seeking to buy into a supportive area is not that uncommon, especially with the amount of emotion that leads to large price spikes. I will be watching the low 300s to 295 area for reversal signs and look to reenter long there if my criteria is met. Let's see what happens.

Comments and questions welcome.

19 Okt 2017

Catatan

I am long again (50% of position size) at 309.95. Stop 294 and target 335. I am going to write about it in my upcoming report.