Hey everyone,
This isn't going to be an overly detailed post. Just my thoughts.
I will probably leave many of you hanging with info but I will explain what's going on in a second.
Assessments for tomorrow on SPX (since that like killed it today LOL) and ES1! are not great.
Kind of bearish on momentum and on technicals.
That said, doesn't really matter. We have one of the most major catalysts happening tomorrow. FOMC.
So what to expect?
In the totality of the circumstances, we still have fairly high prob bull targets on both SPY and ES1! (see my previous posts for either).
So I do expect the volatility to potentially shoot us towards those targets tomorrow.
That said, running preliminary assessments on the monthly for SPY, it doesn't look good. Its actually looking like it prefers a bearish bias, with an immediate TP of 385 on SPY.
That is all I am going to say about that because assessing the monthly probabilities are very nuanced and hence why I am being somewhat vague here. I right now really only have a complete monthly model for SPY and its limited in that it only spans data from the 90s onward. As such, identifying identical months is somewhat challenging when there have only been just over 365 months in the database for comparison. Vs. SPX, which I can pull complete data as far back as 1976. SOOOOO.. I will do this and when I do this I will share more of the results with you.
As of now, what you need to know really is that the overall outlook for the month is looking bearish. We have a bearish 99% target on futures (in the chart). We will have our 99% on SPY, DIA and IWM on the monthly tomorrow.
As you know, I was long going into today. I closed out my longs at EOD after we surpassed the projected TP on SPX.
I will remain positionless until post FOMC. At which point, I plan to start a short position on any rally we may see leading into FOMC, especially if this can rally us up to 410 ish. Remember, the probability essentially indicated a cap this week, with the chance we surpass the bullish range being pretty much 0.
If FOMC is overwhelmingly positive, perhaps the bear market is really on pause indefinitely at this point. But I doubted this thesis fundamentally and the preliminary probability assessment gives credence to my fundamental doubting of this thesis.
I have plotted the ranges for tonight/tomorrow in the chart. With FOMC they are pretty much meaningless with the volatility. I would pay attention to those weekly ranges on ES1! and on SPY. I will link those ideas below.
Safe trades everyone!
Oh and it was that time of the month for a chart layout theme change. Not sure I dig this colour scheme but we'll see. Its growing on me :-).
This isn't going to be an overly detailed post. Just my thoughts.
I will probably leave many of you hanging with info but I will explain what's going on in a second.
Assessments for tomorrow on SPX (since that like killed it today LOL) and ES1! are not great.
Kind of bearish on momentum and on technicals.
That said, doesn't really matter. We have one of the most major catalysts happening tomorrow. FOMC.
So what to expect?
In the totality of the circumstances, we still have fairly high prob bull targets on both SPY and ES1! (see my previous posts for either).
So I do expect the volatility to potentially shoot us towards those targets tomorrow.
That said, running preliminary assessments on the monthly for SPY, it doesn't look good. Its actually looking like it prefers a bearish bias, with an immediate TP of 385 on SPY.
That is all I am going to say about that because assessing the monthly probabilities are very nuanced and hence why I am being somewhat vague here. I right now really only have a complete monthly model for SPY and its limited in that it only spans data from the 90s onward. As such, identifying identical months is somewhat challenging when there have only been just over 365 months in the database for comparison. Vs. SPX, which I can pull complete data as far back as 1976. SOOOOO.. I will do this and when I do this I will share more of the results with you.
As of now, what you need to know really is that the overall outlook for the month is looking bearish. We have a bearish 99% target on futures (in the chart). We will have our 99% on SPY, DIA and IWM on the monthly tomorrow.
As you know, I was long going into today. I closed out my longs at EOD after we surpassed the projected TP on SPX.
I will remain positionless until post FOMC. At which point, I plan to start a short position on any rally we may see leading into FOMC, especially if this can rally us up to 410 ish. Remember, the probability essentially indicated a cap this week, with the chance we surpass the bullish range being pretty much 0.
If FOMC is overwhelmingly positive, perhaps the bear market is really on pause indefinitely at this point. But I doubted this thesis fundamentally and the preliminary probability assessment gives credence to my fundamental doubting of this thesis.
I have plotted the ranges for tonight/tomorrow in the chart. With FOMC they are pretty much meaningless with the volatility. I would pay attention to those weekly ranges on ES1! and on SPY. I will link those ideas below.
Safe trades everyone!
Oh and it was that time of the month for a chart layout theme change. Not sure I dig this colour scheme but we'll see. Its growing on me :-).
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