DXY - USD Indx interim top building. Correction to 80,85-81,00?
This post is an update of the previous one, with further alert for those who are still overweight in USD.
Daily: Slow Stoch keeps going lower. MACD likely gives a sell signal soon. DMI components started to converge with ADX at key top level. My feelings about an interim top and bullish wave exhaustion are even stronger now.
4 Hrs: Weak Tenkan/Kijun sell signal. Chikou at Price, Price is at (soon in) the Kumo. Future Kumo bearish cross. ADX down already, DMI is flat. Short time frame trending is over. This itself doesn't mean a counter trend will take place for sure, but the odds are getting higher for a breakdown. This pattern may end up with a small head and shoulders, which would have a measured tgt oto 80,85. This tgt would be in line with daily Kijun Sen.
Don't forget, the long term major trend is bullish for the US Dollar. But every trend has waves and pull backs.
I started to play this pullback idea, opened 1/3 trade unit short so far. On a Kumo break signal I will size it up to 2 Units. Stop above 81,60. As this is clearly a counter trend trade, I will strictly take profit at 80,85-80,95 levels on half of the position, and I will move the Stop to break even for the rest. What's more, at some point we will have to weight up USD exposure again (means buying USD Indx for example).
Daily: Slow Stoch keeps going lower. MACD likely gives a sell signal soon. DMI components started to converge with ADX at key top level. My feelings about an interim top and bullish wave exhaustion are even stronger now.
4 Hrs: Weak Tenkan/Kijun sell signal. Chikou at Price, Price is at (soon in) the Kumo. Future Kumo bearish cross. ADX down already, DMI is flat. Short time frame trending is over. This itself doesn't mean a counter trend will take place for sure, but the odds are getting higher for a breakdown. This pattern may end up with a small head and shoulders, which would have a measured tgt oto 80,85. This tgt would be in line with daily Kijun Sen.
Don't forget, the long term major trend is bullish for the US Dollar. But every trend has waves and pull backs.
I started to play this pullback idea, opened 1/3 trade unit short so far. On a Kumo break signal I will size it up to 2 Units. Stop above 81,60. As this is clearly a counter trend trade, I will strictly take profit at 80,85-80,95 levels on half of the position, and I will move the Stop to break even for the rest. What's more, at some point we will have to weight up USD exposure again (means buying USD Indx for example).
