DOW: TO 25,471 then 27,000 (Re-Test) OR Falling Pit to 24,800
Its no surprise that Trumps latest tariff spat has taken the market completely by surprise, as a result of what appeared to be a ceasefire - turned out to be an utmost escalation.
Currently I am eyeing one of two possibilities:
1) Down to 25,471 then re-test back to 27,000 where we either re-test highs or simply fall back down
2) To 25,471 then fall further to a first falling pit level of 24,800
Which scenario occurs will be based on the political issues surrounding Fed meetings in September and if the tariffs actually go into effect September 1.
If for example, no rate cut occurs in September and Trump goes ahead with tariffs on China in September, I suspect the Dow will continue to fall below 25,000. If on the other hand, the Fed becomes more dovish on future rate cuts and the tariffs do not go into effect, we can expect a re-test to ATHs.
Watch for the Fed September meeting and keep a close eye on tariffs if they go through on September.
Nonetheless, I suspect we drop to 25,471.
- zSplit
Currently I am eyeing one of two possibilities:
1) Down to 25,471 then re-test back to 27,000 where we either re-test highs or simply fall back down
2) To 25,471 then fall further to a first falling pit level of 24,800
Which scenario occurs will be based on the political issues surrounding Fed meetings in September and if the tariffs actually go into effect September 1.
If for example, no rate cut occurs in September and Trump goes ahead with tariffs on China in September, I suspect the Dow will continue to fall below 25,000. If on the other hand, the Fed becomes more dovish on future rate cuts and the tariffs do not go into effect, we can expect a re-test to ATHs.
Watch for the Fed September meeting and keep a close eye on tariffs if they go through on September.
Nonetheless, I suspect we drop to 25,471.
- zSplit