Short Dated Options to Deftly Manage Oil Market Shocks
"Volatility gets you in the gut. When prices are jumping around, you feel different from when they are stable" quipped Peter L Bernstein, an American financial historian, investor, economist, and an educator.
Crude oil prices are influenced by a variety of macro drivers. Oil market shocks are not rare events. They appear to recur at a tight frequency. From negative prices to sharp spikes in volatility, crude oil market participants "enjoy" daily free roller-coaster rides.
Precisely for this reason, crude oil derivatives are among the most liquid and sophisticated markets globally. This paper delves specifically into weekly CME Crude Oil Weekly Options and is set out in three parts.
First, what’s unique about short-dated options? Second, tools enabling investors to better navigate crude oil market dynamics. Third, a case study illustrating the usage of weekly crude oil options.
PART 1: WHAT’S UNIQUE ABOUT CME CRUDE OIL WEEKLY OPTIONS?
Macro announcements such as US CPI, China CPI, Fed rate decisions, Oil inventory changes and OPEC meetings drive oil price volatility.
Sharp price movements can lead to premature stop-loss triggers. When prices gap up or gap down at open, stop orders perform poorly leading to substantial margin calls.
Weekly options enable hedging against these risks with limited downside and substantial upside.
Closer to expiration, options prices are sensitive to changes in the prices of the underlying. Small underlying price moves can have outsized value creation through short-dated options.
Hedging with weekly options allows investors to enjoy large upside potential. Short duration vastly reduces the options premium burden. This high risk-reward ratio has made short-dated options popular among both buyers and sellers.
The daily traded notional value of Zero-DTE options (Zero Days-To-Expiry, 0DTE) have grown to USD 1 Trillion. Among S&P 500 options, 0DTE options comprise 53% of the average daily volume (ADV), up from 19% a year ago.
In 2020, CME launched Weekly WTI options with Friday expiry (LO1-5), offering robust, round-the-clock liquidity and enabling precise event exposure management at minimal cost.
These weekly options are now the fastest growing energy products at CME with ADV growing 69% YoY with June 2023 ADV up 136% YoY.
Building on rising demand, CME added weekly options expiring Monday and Wednesday. At any time, the four nearest weeks of each option are available for trading.
Weekly options settle to the latest benchmark CL contract and like other CME WTI products, they are physically deliverable ensuring price integrity.
Each weekly WTI options contract provides exposure to 1,000 barrels. Every USD 0.01 change per barrel change in WTI represents a P&L change of USD 10 in premium per contract.
PART 2: EIGHT TOOLS TO BETTER NAVIGATE CRUDE OIL MARKET DYNAMICS
Highlighted below are eight critical tools across TradingView and CME enabling investors to better navigate oil market dynamics.
1. OPEC+ Watch
OPEC+ Watch charts the probability of different outcomes from OPEC+ meetings. Probabilities are derived from actual market data & represent a condensed consensus market view of forthcoming meetings.
2. News Flow
TradingView’s News section collates the key market developments impacting crude oil.
3. Forward Curve
TradingView maps crude oil prices across the forward curve exhibiting oil’s term structure.
Augmenting the forward curve chart is a table CL contracts across various expiries with technical signals embedded in them enabling investors to spot calendar spread trading opportunities.
4. TradingView Scripts
Supported by a vibrant community of script creators, TradingView has curated scripts catering to the specific needs of crude oil traders.
OIL WTI/Brent Spread by MarcoValente: Shows the spread between WTI and Brent crude. This spread is growing in importance with growth in US oil exports.
Seasonality Indicator by tradeforopp: Presents seasonal price trends along with key pivot points to guide traders.
5. Economic Calendars
TradingView’s economic calendar highlights upcoming economic events segmented by dates and with countdown timers to help traders better manage their portfolios.
Augmenting, TradingView’s calendar is CME’s Economic Events Analyzer which lists key events specifically impacting energy markets and highlights the relevant weekly options contract.
6. Options Expiration Calendar
CME’s Options Expiration Calendar is a comprehensive yet condensed view of upcoming expiration dates of WTI options, even those that are not listed yet.
7. Daily/Weekly Options Report
CME’s Daily/Weekly Options Report profiles volumes and OI by strike price for weekly options supplying key stats such as Put/Call ratio and key strike levels at a glance.
8. Strategy Simulator
CME’s strategy simulator allows investors to simulate diverse options strategies. Selecting the relevant instruments and adding each component of the overall position automatically calculates the payoff while still allowing modification of key statistics such as volatility based on user inputs.
The below shows the payoff of an ATM straddle position for the upcoming Monday weekly option.
It also allows simulating various market conditions. Selecting price trends such as up fast, up slow, flat, down slow, down fast can simulate the changes in P&L.
PART 3: ILLUSTRATING USAGE OF WEEKLY CRUDE OIL OPTIONS
Why does CME list weekly options expiring on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday?
Each of these address specific macro events. OPEC meeting outcomes are typically announced over the weekend leading to gaps in prices on Monday. EIA weekly crude oil inventory data are released on Wednesdays. Key US economic data such as CPI and Non-farm payrolls are released on Fridays.
Use Case for Options expiring on Monday
These can be used to hedge against downside risk associated with weekend events.
For instance, in April, OPEC+ announced major supply cuts at their meeting on Sunday. This led to WTI price spiking 4% at market open.
This can lead to “gap risk.” Gap risk refers to the risk that markets may open sharply above or below their previous close. Since, price never passes the levels in between, stop loss orders fail to trigger at set levels resulting in more-than-anticipated realised losses.
Such gap risks from weekend news can be managed through Monday weekly options which provides a predictable and resilient payoff with limited downside risk.
Use Case for Options expiring on Wednesday
Oil inventory reports by EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) and API (American Petroleum Institute) are released every week on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. Major misses/beats against expectations for these releases can result in large price moves.
Wednesday options come in handy to better manage volatility stemming from these shocks or surprises.
Weekly options provide superior ROI on small moves when compared to futures. Favourable price moves deliver larger payoffs from position in weekly options than futures and shorter expiries allow for much lower premium than monthly options.
Illustrating with Back tested Results
On June 14th, Crude price fell by 1.7% (USD 1.2) to USD 68.7/barrel upon release of inventory data that showed a larger than expected inventory build-up.
In the lead up to this data release, a crude oil participant could either (a) Short Crude Oil Futures, or (b) Long Weekly Crude Oil Put Option.
Summary outcomes from these two strategies are tabulated and charted below. The results speak for themselves. Short dated long put option is capital efficient, prudent, and credible as a risk management tool. That said, participants must evaluate the risk return profile taking into consideration market liquidity and volatility levels, among others, when choosing between instruments.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
In summary,
1) Weekly Options can be cleverly deployed to hedge against shocks in oil markets.
2) TradingView & CME provide a rich suite of tools to deftly navigate the oil market dynamics.
3) Weekly options expiring on (a) Monday helps manoeuvre developments over the weekend, (b) Wednesday helps to manage inventory data linked shocks, and (c) Friday enables investors to trade and hedge around key US economic data.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/.
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Crude oil prices are influenced by a variety of macro drivers. Oil market shocks are not rare events. They appear to recur at a tight frequency. From negative prices to sharp spikes in volatility, crude oil market participants "enjoy" daily free roller-coaster rides.
Precisely for this reason, crude oil derivatives are among the most liquid and sophisticated markets globally. This paper delves specifically into weekly CME Crude Oil Weekly Options and is set out in three parts.
First, what’s unique about short-dated options? Second, tools enabling investors to better navigate crude oil market dynamics. Third, a case study illustrating the usage of weekly crude oil options.
PART 1: WHAT’S UNIQUE ABOUT CME CRUDE OIL WEEKLY OPTIONS?
Macro announcements such as US CPI, China CPI, Fed rate decisions, Oil inventory changes and OPEC meetings drive oil price volatility.
Sharp price movements can lead to premature stop-loss triggers. When prices gap up or gap down at open, stop orders perform poorly leading to substantial margin calls.
Weekly options enable hedging against these risks with limited downside and substantial upside.
Closer to expiration, options prices are sensitive to changes in the prices of the underlying. Small underlying price moves can have outsized value creation through short-dated options.
Hedging with weekly options allows investors to enjoy large upside potential. Short duration vastly reduces the options premium burden. This high risk-reward ratio has made short-dated options popular among both buyers and sellers.
The daily traded notional value of Zero-DTE options (Zero Days-To-Expiry, 0DTE) have grown to USD 1 Trillion. Among S&P 500 options, 0DTE options comprise 53% of the average daily volume (ADV), up from 19% a year ago.
In 2020, CME launched Weekly WTI options with Friday expiry (LO1-5), offering robust, round-the-clock liquidity and enabling precise event exposure management at minimal cost.
These weekly options are now the fastest growing energy products at CME with ADV growing 69% YoY with June 2023 ADV up 136% YoY.
Building on rising demand, CME added weekly options expiring Monday and Wednesday. At any time, the four nearest weeks of each option are available for trading.
Weekly options settle to the latest benchmark CL contract and like other CME WTI products, they are physically deliverable ensuring price integrity.
Each weekly WTI options contract provides exposure to 1,000 barrels. Every USD 0.01 change per barrel change in WTI represents a P&L change of USD 10 in premium per contract.
PART 2: EIGHT TOOLS TO BETTER NAVIGATE CRUDE OIL MARKET DYNAMICS
Highlighted below are eight critical tools across TradingView and CME enabling investors to better navigate oil market dynamics.
1. OPEC+ Watch
OPEC+ Watch charts the probability of different outcomes from OPEC+ meetings. Probabilities are derived from actual market data & represent a condensed consensus market view of forthcoming meetings.
2. News Flow
TradingView’s News section collates the key market developments impacting crude oil.
3. Forward Curve
TradingView maps crude oil prices across the forward curve exhibiting oil’s term structure.
Augmenting the forward curve chart is a table CL contracts across various expiries with technical signals embedded in them enabling investors to spot calendar spread trading opportunities.
4. TradingView Scripts
Supported by a vibrant community of script creators, TradingView has curated scripts catering to the specific needs of crude oil traders.
OIL WTI/Brent Spread by MarcoValente: Shows the spread between WTI and Brent crude. This spread is growing in importance with growth in US oil exports.
Seasonality Indicator by tradeforopp: Presents seasonal price trends along with key pivot points to guide traders.
5. Economic Calendars
TradingView’s economic calendar highlights upcoming economic events segmented by dates and with countdown timers to help traders better manage their portfolios.
Augmenting, TradingView’s calendar is CME’s Economic Events Analyzer which lists key events specifically impacting energy markets and highlights the relevant weekly options contract.
6. Options Expiration Calendar
CME’s Options Expiration Calendar is a comprehensive yet condensed view of upcoming expiration dates of WTI options, even those that are not listed yet.
7. Daily/Weekly Options Report
CME’s Daily/Weekly Options Report profiles volumes and OI by strike price for weekly options supplying key stats such as Put/Call ratio and key strike levels at a glance.
8. Strategy Simulator
CME’s strategy simulator allows investors to simulate diverse options strategies. Selecting the relevant instruments and adding each component of the overall position automatically calculates the payoff while still allowing modification of key statistics such as volatility based on user inputs.
The below shows the payoff of an ATM straddle position for the upcoming Monday weekly option.
It also allows simulating various market conditions. Selecting price trends such as up fast, up slow, flat, down slow, down fast can simulate the changes in P&L.
PART 3: ILLUSTRATING USAGE OF WEEKLY CRUDE OIL OPTIONS
Why does CME list weekly options expiring on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday?
Each of these address specific macro events. OPEC meeting outcomes are typically announced over the weekend leading to gaps in prices on Monday. EIA weekly crude oil inventory data are released on Wednesdays. Key US economic data such as CPI and Non-farm payrolls are released on Fridays.
Use Case for Options expiring on Monday
These can be used to hedge against downside risk associated with weekend events.
For instance, in April, OPEC+ announced major supply cuts at their meeting on Sunday. This led to WTI price spiking 4% at market open.
This can lead to “gap risk.” Gap risk refers to the risk that markets may open sharply above or below their previous close. Since, price never passes the levels in between, stop loss orders fail to trigger at set levels resulting in more-than-anticipated realised losses.
Such gap risks from weekend news can be managed through Monday weekly options which provides a predictable and resilient payoff with limited downside risk.
Use Case for Options expiring on Wednesday
Oil inventory reports by EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) and API (American Petroleum Institute) are released every week on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. Major misses/beats against expectations for these releases can result in large price moves.
Wednesday options come in handy to better manage volatility stemming from these shocks or surprises.
Weekly options provide superior ROI on small moves when compared to futures. Favourable price moves deliver larger payoffs from position in weekly options than futures and shorter expiries allow for much lower premium than monthly options.
Illustrating with Back tested Results
On June 14th, Crude price fell by 1.7% (USD 1.2) to USD 68.7/barrel upon release of inventory data that showed a larger than expected inventory build-up.
In the lead up to this data release, a crude oil participant could either (a) Short Crude Oil Futures, or (b) Long Weekly Crude Oil Put Option.
Summary outcomes from these two strategies are tabulated and charted below. The results speak for themselves. Short dated long put option is capital efficient, prudent, and credible as a risk management tool. That said, participants must evaluate the risk return profile taking into consideration market liquidity and volatility levels, among others, when choosing between instruments.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
In summary,
1) Weekly Options can be cleverly deployed to hedge against shocks in oil markets.
2) TradingView & CME provide a rich suite of tools to deftly navigate the oil market dynamics.
3) Weekly options expiring on (a) Monday helps manoeuvre developments over the weekend, (b) Wednesday helps to manage inventory data linked shocks, and (c) Friday enables investors to trade and hedge around key US economic data.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/.
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Full Disclaimer - linktr.ee/mintfinance
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