Ok, I will try and make this as least confusing as I can so you can try and make sense of all of the lines on my chart! It all makes sense in my head, so I just hope I can explain what I am looking for right now in the charts.
Back on 20th of September we broke out of our symmetrical triangle (shown by the pinky purpley colour). The height of this pattern gives us a target of around 7075ish (as shown by the purple dotted line). Currently we find ourselves in the midst of a number of possible scenarios. The first is the light green shaded large bearish ascending narrowing wedge, the second is the bullish grey uptrend channel. In the immediate short term we also have the smaller bearish ascending narrowing wedge shown in light blue which I think will kick off the chain of events that decides which of these patterns wins the battle.
Basically, this is how I see it potentially playing out - I think within the next 6 or so hours we will spike up and hit the resistance of the grey and orange lines converging (as indicated by the green circle). We will then range for a day before falling out of the support of this wedge. This fall will take us back down to 6700 as highlighted by the pink arrows.
From here; we will have the support of the light magenta line and the 100MA converging. This should be strong enough to hold us, however if we do happen to fall through them; we have the grey support line just below. If the grey support line doesn’t hold, then it looks like the larger bearish ascending wedge shown by the light green shading wins; and we go back down to 6350 again where we will again find support and start our journey back up again.
In saying this; on the flip side - provided the light magenta support along with the 100 MA holds; then we will likely range for a day or so between the magenta line and the yellow line - before blasting up to finally break the long term downtrend (as shown by the purple resistance line). This scenario puts us within the grey ascending channel and is the scenario I am erring towards right now.
So how to play this until we know more…? Well I still think the symmetrical triangle is the dominating pattern here. That means our target of 7075 is still valid. I will however, take profit from my longs at 6875-6915; which is where I think we will hit resistance and fall back down to 6700. I will then re-enter longs at 6700 with a low enough leverage to cover me in the unlikely event that the worst case scenario does play out, and sees us drop back down to 6350.
Though unlikely, if this drop back to 6350 does happen; I will increase my long position at around the 6350-6400 level (which would be our target for the drop).
In the more favourable scenario that we do find the support I am expecting, then as mentioned earlier it places us within the grey uptrend channel which should easily see us to our symmetrical triangle target. Upon reaching the target, we will have a small retrace to test the purple long term down trend line as new support before starting our new bull run to a new ATH (I’m thinking $33,500 as an early approximate).
As a final note – there is also the chance that we continue to range sideways for another couple of days before hitting the light blue support line and then shooting for a break of the orange resistance line; as well as the chance that we defy all technical analysis and simply blast upwards and to our target (though this is pretty unlikely!). Cheers
Back on 20th of September we broke out of our symmetrical triangle (shown by the pinky purpley colour). The height of this pattern gives us a target of around 7075ish (as shown by the purple dotted line). Currently we find ourselves in the midst of a number of possible scenarios. The first is the light green shaded large bearish ascending narrowing wedge, the second is the bullish grey uptrend channel. In the immediate short term we also have the smaller bearish ascending narrowing wedge shown in light blue which I think will kick off the chain of events that decides which of these patterns wins the battle.
Basically, this is how I see it potentially playing out - I think within the next 6 or so hours we will spike up and hit the resistance of the grey and orange lines converging (as indicated by the green circle). We will then range for a day before falling out of the support of this wedge. This fall will take us back down to 6700 as highlighted by the pink arrows.
From here; we will have the support of the light magenta line and the 100MA converging. This should be strong enough to hold us, however if we do happen to fall through them; we have the grey support line just below. If the grey support line doesn’t hold, then it looks like the larger bearish ascending wedge shown by the light green shading wins; and we go back down to 6350 again where we will again find support and start our journey back up again.
In saying this; on the flip side - provided the light magenta support along with the 100 MA holds; then we will likely range for a day or so between the magenta line and the yellow line - before blasting up to finally break the long term downtrend (as shown by the purple resistance line). This scenario puts us within the grey ascending channel and is the scenario I am erring towards right now.
So how to play this until we know more…? Well I still think the symmetrical triangle is the dominating pattern here. That means our target of 7075 is still valid. I will however, take profit from my longs at 6875-6915; which is where I think we will hit resistance and fall back down to 6700. I will then re-enter longs at 6700 with a low enough leverage to cover me in the unlikely event that the worst case scenario does play out, and sees us drop back down to 6350.
Though unlikely, if this drop back to 6350 does happen; I will increase my long position at around the 6350-6400 level (which would be our target for the drop).
In the more favourable scenario that we do find the support I am expecting, then as mentioned earlier it places us within the grey uptrend channel which should easily see us to our symmetrical triangle target. Upon reaching the target, we will have a small retrace to test the purple long term down trend line as new support before starting our new bull run to a new ATH (I’m thinking $33,500 as an early approximate).
As a final note – there is also the chance that we continue to range sideways for another couple of days before hitting the light blue support line and then shooting for a break of the orange resistance line; as well as the chance that we defy all technical analysis and simply blast upwards and to our target (though this is pretty unlikely!). Cheers
Komentar:
This scenario is now looking more like my original analysis here which I am also continuing to update.
I am still being mindful of the grey channel forming if we break any of the expected supports.